Group 1 - Japan's July exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations of a 2.1% decline and significantly worse than June's 0.5% drop, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4] - Exports to the United States, Japan's largest market, decreased by 10.1%, although this was an improvement from June's 11.4% drop, indicating ongoing weakness in demand [4] - The automotive sector faced a substantial decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping by 28.4%, worsening from June's decline, highlighting the sector's vulnerability [4][9] Group 2 - Exports to China, Japan's second-largest market, also declined by 3.5%, continuing a trend of weak demand, while exports to Hong Kong increased by 17.7%, indicating uneven regional demand [4] - A recent agreement between Japan and the U.S. reduced tariffs from 25% to 15%, but analysts warn that the new tariff level will still impose significant burdens on Japanese exporters [7] - The impact of the new tariffs will be fully reflected in August's data, suggesting that July's export decline primarily reflects the previous high-tariff environment [7] Group 3 - The Japanese automotive industry is a crucial pillar of the manufacturing sector, and the significant drop in exports will likely have a pronounced impact on economic growth and employment stability [9] - The Bank of Japan faces a policy dilemma, needing to manage domestic inflation while being cautious of currency appreciation that could further weaken export competitiveness [9] - Observers note that Japan's economy is at a critical turning point, with upcoming trade data and policy directions being vital in navigating the complex global trade environment [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "Great Beauty Act" was passed, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increased market uncertainty. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened [3]. - On July 3, the "Great Beauty Act" was passed in the House, and Trump signed it into law. It provides greater fiscal flexibility but raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and debt risks. The approaching tariff suspension deadline on July 9 intensifies concerns about global trade prospects [3]. - The US June non - farm data was 147,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the report, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September in the interest rate futures market dropped from 98% to about 80% [3]. - Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut decreased, the tax - cut bill and the approaching tariff suspension deadline add new uncertainties, and short - term precious metal price fluctuations may increase [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE Gold closed at 777.06 yuan/gram, up 8.42 yuan (1.10%), with a total trading volume of 175,040 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [4]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, up 7.42 yuan (0.97%), with a total trading volume of 39,244 lots and a total open interest of 220,656 lots [4]. - COMEX Gold closed at 3336.00 dollars/ounce, up 49.90 dollars (1.52%) [4]. - SHFE Silver closed at 8919 yuan/kilogram, up 127 yuan (1.44%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [4]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8885 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan (1.80%), with a total trading volume of 415,618 lots and a total open interest of 3,258,756 lots [4]. - COMEX Silver closed at 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.88 dollars (2.42%) [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The "Great Beauty Act" became law, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increases uncertainties. The better - than - expected non - farm data weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][6]. - The EU is trying to reach a "principled" trade agreement with the US before the deadline, and Japan plans to send its chief trade negotiator to the US again this weekend [7]. - This week, focus on the end of the US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period on July 9, the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit, the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and Fed officials' speeches [7]. 3. Important Data Information - US June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the probability of a September Fed rate cut dropped to about 80% [9]. - US June ADP employment decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 [9]. - US May job openings increased from 7.4 million to 7.769 million, exceeding expectations, and lay - offs decreased [9]. - US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, still in the contraction range, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and inflation showing signs of acceleration [9]. - US June ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.8, slightly higher than expected, with business activities and orders rebounding but the employment index contracting [10]. - US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month, the largest increase since 2014 [10]. - US May trade deficit increased by 18.7% month - on - month to 71.5 billion dollars, with imports down 0.1% and exports down 4% [10]. - Eurozone June CPI rose 2% year - on - year, reaching the ECB's target, and ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle is in the final stage [10]. - Eurozone June manufacturing PMI reached 49.5, the highest since August 2022, with new orders stabilizing and export orders stopping falling [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - Gold ETF total holdings were 947.66 tons on July 4, 2025, down 7.16 tons from last week [11]. - Ishares Silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons on July 4, 2025, up 2.55 tons from last week [11]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial positions, and correlations of precious metals and related economic indicators [14][16][18][21][25][26][30][32][35][37][42]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in gold prices on Thursday, the market is expected to see a weekly increase as investors weigh the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns about global trade prospects [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices are trading around $3,330 per ounce this week, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.7% [1] - The previous trading day saw a decline of 0.9% due to unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The rise in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has put pressure on gold prices, as traders have reduced their bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have maintained the key interest rate unchanged this year, citing concerns that Trump's tariff policies may exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] - Officials have indicated that the overall stability of the job market supports their view that there is no urgent need for rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both sugar and cotton are "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have started to finish crushing, and a restorative increase in sugar production is a foregone conclusion. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to weaken sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons and imports also decreasing by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, the high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from $17.83 to $17.58, a decline of 1.40%; the price of US cotton decreased from $67.56 to $66.56, a decline of 1.48% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,220 yuan to 6,210 yuan, a decline of 0.16%; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 6,070 yuan to 6,055 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a decline of 0.08%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,000 yuan [3] - **Spread Overview**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, CF05 - 09, sugar 01 basis, sugar 09 basis, cotton 01 basis, cotton 05 basis, and cotton 09 basis all increased, while the spreads of CF01 - 05, CF09 - 01, and sugar 05 basis remained unchanged or decreased [3] - **Import Prices**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 80.15 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,295 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR509C5900, SR509P5900, CF509C12800, and CF509P12800 are 0.1091, 0.111, 0.1375, and 0.1382 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR509 and CF509 are 8.92 and 11.7 respectively [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From April 28 to April 29, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 28,756 to 28,750, a decline of 0.02%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 10,479 to 10,838, an increase of 3.43% [3] 3.2 Company Introduction - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Due to the increasing uncertainty in the global trade outlook, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Sugar - As of the end of February 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - In March 2025, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but future weather changes need to be monitored [1] - In the international market, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production did not meet expectations, leading to a further widening of the international supply - demand gap [1] Cotton - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory remains at the highest level in the past five years, with relatively sufficient supply [1] - After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, the operating rate rose to a high level, and the outbound speed of textile products also accelerated [1] - In the international market, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [1] - The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing season, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be followed [1] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - On April 8 - 9, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 18.3 dollars to 17.89 dollars, a decline of 2.24%; the price of US cotton increased from 65.66 dollars to 66.51 dollars, an increase of 1.29% [3] Spot Prices - From April 8 to 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6150.0 yuan to 6130.0 yuan, a decline of 0.33%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6040.0 yuan to 5995.0 yuan, a decline of 0.75% [3] - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.89%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14600.0 yuan to 14350.0 yuan, a decline of 1.71% [3] Spread Overview - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease from April 8 to 9, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 spread increasing by 1.37%, SR05 - 09 spread decreasing by 14.88% [3] Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1103.5 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Options - The implied volatility of SR505C6000 is 0.1193, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.45; for other options, similar data are provided [3] Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27410.0 from April 8 to 9, 2025; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9423.0 to 9365.0, a decline of 0.62% [3]