Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "Great Beauty Act" was passed, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increased market uncertainty. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened [3]. - On July 3, the "Great Beauty Act" was passed in the House, and Trump signed it into law. It provides greater fiscal flexibility but raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and debt risks. The approaching tariff suspension deadline on July 9 intensifies concerns about global trade prospects [3]. - The US June non - farm data was 147,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the report, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September in the interest rate futures market dropped from 98% to about 80% [3]. - Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut decreased, the tax - cut bill and the approaching tariff suspension deadline add new uncertainties, and short - term precious metal price fluctuations may increase [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE Gold closed at 777.06 yuan/gram, up 8.42 yuan (1.10%), with a total trading volume of 175,040 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [4]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, up 7.42 yuan (0.97%), with a total trading volume of 39,244 lots and a total open interest of 220,656 lots [4]. - COMEX Gold closed at 3336.00 dollars/ounce, up 49.90 dollars (1.52%) [4]. - SHFE Silver closed at 8919 yuan/kilogram, up 127 yuan (1.44%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [4]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8885 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan (1.80%), with a total trading volume of 415,618 lots and a total open interest of 3,258,756 lots [4]. - COMEX Silver closed at 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.88 dollars (2.42%) [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The "Great Beauty Act" became law, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increases uncertainties. The better - than - expected non - farm data weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][6]. - The EU is trying to reach a "principled" trade agreement with the US before the deadline, and Japan plans to send its chief trade negotiator to the US again this weekend [7]. - This week, focus on the end of the US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period on July 9, the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit, the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and Fed officials' speeches [7]. 3. Important Data Information - US June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the probability of a September Fed rate cut dropped to about 80% [9]. - US June ADP employment decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 [9]. - US May job openings increased from 7.4 million to 7.769 million, exceeding expectations, and lay - offs decreased [9]. - US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, still in the contraction range, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and inflation showing signs of acceleration [9]. - US June ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.8, slightly higher than expected, with business activities and orders rebounding but the employment index contracting [10]. - US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month, the largest increase since 2014 [10]. - US May trade deficit increased by 18.7% month - on - month to 71.5 billion dollars, with imports down 0.1% and exports down 4% [10]. - Eurozone June CPI rose 2% year - on - year, reaching the ECB's target, and ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle is in the final stage [10]. - Eurozone June manufacturing PMI reached 49.5, the highest since August 2022, with new orders stabilizing and export orders stopping falling [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - Gold ETF total holdings were 947.66 tons on July 4, 2025, down 7.16 tons from last week [11]. - Ishares Silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons on July 4, 2025, up 2.55 tons from last week [11]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial positions, and correlations of precious metals and related economic indicators [14][16][18][21][25][26][30][32][35][37][42]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in gold prices on Thursday, the market is expected to see a weekly increase as investors weigh the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing concerns about global trade prospects [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices are trading around $3,330 per ounce this week, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.7% [1] - The previous trading day saw a decline of 0.9% due to unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data and a lower-than-expected unemployment rate [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The rise in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has put pressure on gold prices, as traders have reduced their bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers have maintained the key interest rate unchanged this year, citing concerns that Trump's tariff policies may exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] - Officials have indicated that the overall stability of the job market supports their view that there is no urgent need for rate cuts [1]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易前景不明，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-30 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 1 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易前景预期波动加大，软商品短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-10 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商 ...