1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, with political uncertainties rising in Europe and Japan and the dollar strengthening. The Fed may slow down the pace of interest - rate cuts from December to the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the bond market is in an overall volatile state. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the situation of government bond supply are key factors affecting the bond market. In November, bond trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART1: Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Dispute, Domestic Bond Market Overall Volatile 1.1 Overseas - In October, the US government shutdown, lack of macro data, and resurgence of trade frictions led to low - level volatility of US bond yields. Political uncertainties in Europe and Japan increased, causing the dollar index to rebound, and the euro and yen to depreciate against the dollar. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the December policy decision. It is expected that from December to the first quarter of next year, inflation transmission may strengthen, and the Fed may slow down the interest - rate cut pace [7][10] 1.2 Domestic - **Fundamentals and Bond Market**: High - frequency data shows that the fundamental data in October still needs improvement, and the capital market remains generally loose. The bond market declined in an overall volatile manner, mainly due to the Sino - US tariff game and the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading [2][17] - **Institutional Behavior** - **Leverage Ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio fluctuated at a low level [19] - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks continued to buy short - term treasury bonds, while insurance companies reduced their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds [21][23] - **Trading Disk**: Rural commercial banks continued to reduce duration, while funds increased duration and added credit bonds [26] - **Wealth Management**: The scale and bond - allocation strength of wealth management products were better than seasonal trends, mainly increasing the allocation of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [34][35] PART2: How to Understand the Central Bank's Restart of Treasury Bond Trading? 2.1 Three Backgrounds for the Central Bank to Restart Treasury Bond Trading - It is an implementation of the requirements of the Fourth Plenary Session to ensure the annual stable - growth target. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by about 30BP this year, and the current interest - rate level is within the range mentioned by regulators. As of the end of October, the combined scale of outright reverse repos and MLF is at a historically high level, so the central bank needs to inject long - term liquidity [38] 2.2 Market Pricing of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading in 2024 - In 2024, against the backdrop of a bull market, the central bank bought short - term bonds and sold long - term bonds. The market was mainly concerned about the impact of regulatory bond sales on the bull market, resulting in a deeper inversion of short - term and funding interest rates and upward fluctuations in long - term yields [41] 2.3 Current Situation of Large Banks - Since June this year, large banks have significantly increased their secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, with net purchases of short - term treasury bonds within 3 years reaching about 1.3 trillion yuan. The scale of purchases of 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds by large banks expanded in August - September, totaling 163.3 billion yuan. The downward space for short - term yields may be less than last year [45] 2.4 Points to Note - In the medium term, treasury bond trading is a long - term liquidity injection tool with the function of adjusting the yield curve. The differences between the central bank's bond - buying and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are reflected in four aspects: liquidity improvement, monetary - policy space, impact on banks, and impact on the bond market. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the scale and maturity distribution of the central bank's bond - buying, changes in funding interest rates and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and whether there will be further overall loosening [48] PART3: Bond Market Strategy 3.1 Trading Strategy in November - In November, trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes. After the official release of the new regulations on public - fund fees, the downward trend may be smoother. Bullish factors include the pending implementation of the central bank's bond - buying and the possibility of another interest - rate cut this year. Bearish factors include the expected high supply of government bonds from November to December and the uncertainty of the new regulations on public - fund fees [4][52] 3.2 Structural Opportunities - Further attention can be paid to the opportunities of the central bank's potential purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years, the spread - compression opportunities of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, and the opportunities of credit - bond investment with medium - short duration and credit - risk sinking, especially urban investment bonds and financial bonds [4][55]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) totaled 3.53 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations of 3.28 trillion RMB[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion RMB, which was 100 billion RMB lower than market expectations[3] - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was primarily due to a reduction in credit and government bond supply, with a decrease of 3.66 trillion RMB in loans and 3.47 trillion RMB in government bonds[4] Group 2: Credit Performance - Resident short-term loans decreased by 127.9 billion RMB, marking the lowest level since 2019, indicating a need for consumer spending stimulation[5] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 250 billion RMB, likely supported by a recent loan interest subsidy policy[5] - The overall credit performance was weaker than expected, with corporate bill financing decreasing by 471.2 billion RMB[5] Group 3: Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 7.2%, benefiting from a low base effect[6] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, primarily due to a decrease in non-bank deposits and government deposits[6] - The structure of deposits showed an increase in resident deposits while non-bank deposits significantly decreased, suggesting a potential reduction in capital inflow to the stock market[6] Group 4: Market Strategy Recommendations - It is advised to observe the market within a volatile framework and avoid excessive chasing of price increases[7] - Recent inflation data indicates a mild recovery in core CPI and PPI, while financial data reflects weak credit characteristics[7] - The bond market showed weak overall performance, with the yield on 10Y government bonds rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.7580%[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (9/22 - 9/26), bond market yields first rose and then fell, mainly driven by central bank open - market operations, end - of - quarter and holiday - related liquidity fluctuations, and stock - bond seesaw effects. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP [1][8]. - Looking ahead to next week, the liquidity situation will face month - end and quarter - end challenges, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday. The fundamentals show mixed production indicators, mixed real - estate transaction year - on - year performance, and a comprehensive decline in the price index. The supply of interest - rate bonds decreased from 9/22 - 9/28. The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity this week [2][3]. - The bond market is facing headwinds in a volatile environment, and there are mainly allocation opportunities. Next week, attention should be paid to the release of the September PMI data, the central bank's support for the liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period, and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on market sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market: Interest Rates First Rose and Then Fell, and the Yield Curve Remained Essentially Flat - From 9/22 - 9/26, bond market yields first rose and then fell. As of 9/26, the yields of 30Y, 10Y (active bond), and 1Y treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively, closing at 2.22%, 1.80%, and 1.38%. The 30Y - 10Y and 10Y - 1Y term spreads changed by 2BP and 0.5BP respectively compared to last week, closing at 34BP and 49.5BP. The 10Y yield movement was influenced by central bank support for end - of - quarter liquidity, increased market risk - aversion before the holiday, and market expectations regarding the new public - fund fee regulations [1][8]. - Specifically, on 9/22, bond market interest rates declined slightly. The central bank's net injection of 2605 billion yuan through 14D and 7D OMOs loosened the liquidity and boosted market sentiment. On 9/23, yields rose due to the central bank's shift from net injection to net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan and market concerns about the new public - fund regulations and tax - exemption policies. On 9/24, yields continued to rise as the stock market was strong and the central bank's 7D OMOs led to a net withdrawal. On 9/25, yields declined as the central bank injected 2965 billion yuan through 7D OMOs to support end - of - quarter liquidity. On 9/26, yields continued to decline as the central bank's net injection of 4115 billion yuan through 7D and 14D OMOs and the stock market adjustment before the holiday supported the bond market [26][27]. 3.2 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook: Liquidity Faces Month - End and Quarter - End Challenges, Likely to Return to Equilibrium after the Holiday - Fundamentals: Production indicators were mixed. The开工 rates of refined PTA and automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.355 and 0.08 percentage points respectively, while the blast - furnace开工 rate increased by 0.47 percentage points. On the demand side, overall demand recovered, but real - estate transactions were still mixed. The year - on - year change in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 6.57%, while that of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 39.15%. Passenger - car sales also recovered with an increased margin, rising 10.36% year - on - year. The price index declined comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.94% and 0.1% respectively, the production - material price index decreased by 0.2%, and the crude - oil price decreased by 5.22% year - on - year [31][43][49]. - Supply: From 9/22 - 9/28, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds decreased. The issuance of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) was 2475.3 billion yuan, 1960.51 billion yuan, and 7918.7 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 2600.98 billion yuan compared to last week. The issuance progress of local bonds reached 84.3% (including the planned issuance next week), and the issuance progress of new special bonds and new general bonds was 84.3% and 84% respectively [2][64]. - Liquidity: From 9/22 - 9/26, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase operations of 6406 billion yuan through 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repos and 6000 billion yuan of MLF to maintain end - of - month liquidity. This week, the liquidity tightened marginally. DR001 and DR007 changed by - 15BP and 4BP respectively compared to 9/19, reaching 1.36% and 1.49%. The yields of 3M and 1Y CDs changed by about 1BP each, reaching 1.59% and 1.69%. The 1Y - 3M CD term spread remained at 10BP, and the 6M - 3M CD term spread expanded by 1BP to about 7BP. Next week, due to month - end, quarter - end, and the National Day holiday, the liquidity may tighten seasonally, but it is likely to return to equilibrium after the holiday with central bank support [3][70]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: Bond Market Faces Headwinds in a Volatile Environment, with Allocation Opportunities - Attention should be paid to three aspects: the release of September PMI data and the market's pricing of the expected upward repair of fundamentals; the central bank's support for liquidity during the month - end and quarter - end period; and the impact of the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations on marginal redemptions and market expectations [80]. - Considering these factors, the potential for further downward pricing of fundamentals is limited compared to the expected upward repair. Although the bond market has shown some desensitization to the strong stock market since late August, risky assets such as stocks still suppress the bond market. The implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations may cause short - term negative feedback in the market, but the probability of significant redemptions disrupting the market is currently low. If there is a significant daily pulse of 2 - 4BP or more, it is advisable to seize the opportunity. Overall, the bond market is unlikely to experience a significant bear market, but short - term fluctuations may increase. The 1.8% level of the 10Y active bond offers good allocation value. In a volatile market, it is advisable to maintain an appropriate duration and increase allocations when yields are high. The short - end yields are likely to return to equilibrium after the month - end, with the policy rate (1.4%) as the lower limit. Currently, the short - end has reached 1.39%, so the odds of short - term profit - taking are limited. For the long - end, although the main trend has not changed significantly, short - term negative factors may accumulate, and fluctuations may increase. It is still recommended to seize the allocation opportunity at the 1.8% key level [4][5][87]. 3.3 Next Week's Open - Market Operations and Economic Calendar - Central bank open - market operations: In the past four weeks, the net injections (or withdrawals) were 4961 billion yuan, - 12047 billion yuan, 1961 billion yuan, 5623 billion yuan, and 9406 billion yuan respectively. Next week, there will be net withdrawals of 5166 billion yuan and 19508 billion yuan in one and two weeks respectively [88]. - Next week's fund calendar (9/29 - 10/5): The expected issuance of local government bonds is 526.97 billion yuan and 544.55 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. The maturity amounts of CDs are relatively high on Thursday and Friday. The maturity amounts of reverse repos are 2405 billion yuan and 2761 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. Thursday is a tax - payment week, and it is not a reserve - payment week [91]. - Next week's economic calendar: On September 30th at 9:30, the official non - manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI (market expectation: 50.10), and comprehensive PMI for September will be released [91].