Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][7] Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short term, the upper limit of the cotton futures market is under significant hedging pressure, and there is a possibility of a callback to test previous lows after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the current cotton price is undervalued. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed [2] - **Sugar**: Before the end of the year, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate. Next year, the situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility of new lows [5] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the pulp price is likely to remain in the bottom - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of demand during the peak season in the fourth quarter [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,656 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: From October 24 to 30, 2025, 202,500 tons of US 2025/26 cotton were graded and inspected, with 80.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, pushing up US cotton prices, but the amount of US cotton China will purchase is unclear. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply and demand pressure [2] - Domestic: The new cotton year starts with low inventory, but new cotton is being listed. The purchase price of seed cotton is rising, and the expected decline in production supports the post - holiday market. However, the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, there is a high hedging pressure on the market, and in the long - term, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - New Sugar: On October 30, 2025, Yingmao Sugar Industry's Mengpeng Sugar Mill started production, and the new sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, 710 yuan lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - International: The global sugar market is in a bearish cycle due to oversupply from Brazil and India. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has decreased recently, the long - term rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Domestic: The new sugar season in China is expected to have increased production, but the price is near the production cost, and the tightening of syrup control policies supports the price, limiting the downside [4] Strategy - Neutral. The market will fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5306 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising moderately, with different price increases in various regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply. Domestic imports have increased, and port inventories remain high [6] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices. Despite new production capacity, effective demand is lacking, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty regarding tariff reductions has decreased, but the impact of tariffs has yet to be observed [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, noted that while there is less uncertainty about tariff reductions, the effects of these tariffs are not yet evident [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that a decrease in tariffs could lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1 - Waller's statement suggests a potential shift in monetary policy depending on tariff changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if tariffs decrease, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1 - Companies are currently pausing capital expenditures rather than canceling them [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if tariffs decrease, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The potential reduction in tariffs could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - Waller's comments suggest a proactive approach by the Fed in response to changing economic conditions [1] - The timeline for potential rate cuts aligns with broader economic forecasts and inflation trends [1]

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract fluctuating between 4770.00 yuan/ton and 4704.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.79% [1] - Supply and demand for PTA remain tight, but price transmission within the industrial chain is hindered, leading to weak purchasing enthusiasm from downstream [1] - The domestic market has entered a low season, and the increase in terminal orders is primarily driven by exports, which may not meet market expectations for future sales [1] Group 2 - Supply recovery is expected this week with the resumption of production from Sichuan Energy Investment and Xinjiang Zhongtai, while polyester production remains high [2] - There is a slight increase in inquiries and orders from downstream weaving manufacturers, indicating a partial increase in domestic and foreign trade orders [2] - PTA industry inventory continues to decrease, with significant reductions in long filament inventory, suggesting a relatively favorable supply-demand situation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]