Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump is expected to significantly impact the copper market, leading to increased prices and urgent shipping efforts by traders to avoid the tariff's effects [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all copper imports effective August 1, 2025, causing immediate reactions in the copper market [1]. - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York surged, reaching a premium of approximately 25% over the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, incentivizing traders to expedite shipments to the U.S. [1]. - Traders are scrambling to reroute shipments to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to minimize transportation time and avoid the impending tariff [1][5]. Group 2: Shipping and Inventory Concerns - Estimates suggest that U.S. copper inventories could reach 500,000 tons in the coming weeks, with significant amounts stored in key locations like New Orleans and Panama City, Florida [2]. - Traders are working overtime to manage existing shipments and consider increasing delivery volumes, despite the high tariff rate being above many market expectations [2][3]. - The shipping time from Asia to New Orleans typically exceeds one month, posing a risk for traders sending copper now [3]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Pricing - Some traders are willing to pay a premium of nearly $400 per ton over LME prices to secure copper for immediate delivery to the U.S., indicating a high demand for compliant brands for Comex contracts [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding which types of copper will be subject to the new tariffs adds complexity to the trading environment, as previous tariffs had exemptions for goods already in transit [6][7]. - The price differential between New York and London is currently lower than 50%, raising questions about the broad applicability of the new tariff on refined copper imports [7].

Core Viewpoint - Following Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper, traders are adjusting shipping routes to expedite deliveries before the tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Route Adjustments - Copper traders are re-planning shipping routes to shorten delivery times, with shipments to Hawaii taking approximately ten days compared to over a month to New Orleans [2]. - At least one trader has already completed a shipment to Hawaii, and Puerto Rico is also seen as an attractive option for South American producers due to its status within the U.S. tariff zone [2]. Group 2: Market Premium Surge - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York futures prices over international benchmark prices surged to about 25%, with arbitrage spreads continuing to rise [3]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect the arbitrage spread to widen further, potentially reaching 50% [3]. - Buyers are willing to pay significant premiums for copper, with some paying nearly $400 per ton above the London Metal Exchange prices to secure last-minute supplies [3]. Group 3: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Implementation - Despite the announcement of the 50% tariff, there are uncertainties regarding which types of copper will be affected, and previous tariffs on steel and aluminum provided exemptions for goods already in transit [5]. - The current price gap between New York and London copper prices is significantly lower than 50%, indicating market uncertainty about the widespread implementation of the tariff [5].

随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划很快对铜征收50%的关税，铜市供应严重吃紧局面将戛然而止。伦敦 金属交易所(LME)的关键价差 —— 6月底曾飙升，因交易商争相把铜运往美国，导致库存被抽空 —— 现已崩跌。白宫最新释放的信号显示加征关税即将到来，这意味着抢在关税落地前通过套利赚钱的时间 所剩无几。从欧洲和亚洲仓库发货，需数周时间才能运抵美国，这些货物很快将面临关税生效后才到货 的风险。（彭博） ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: US trade policy is heating up, and copper prices may run stronger. Refer to the March market. After experiencing the March market, market sensitivity may decrease. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the resistance at the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan level [3]. - Aluminum: US trade policy affects global aluminum demand in the medium - long term but has little short - term impact. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the long - short game at the 20,000 yuan level [4]. Summary by Section 1. Macroeconomic Factors - On May 30, Trump announced on "Truth Social" that starting from June 4, the import tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from 25% to 50%. This may push up the price of COMEX copper, driving up LME copper and SHFE copper. For aluminum, it mainly affects global demand in the medium - long term due to China's strong pricing power [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of copper futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and positions, etc. [10][11][15] 2.2 Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been decreasing, indicating tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to the same period last year, suggesting expected tightness in the domestic ore end and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [24]. 2.3 Slowing De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - Figures show the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), indicating a slowdown in de - stocking [29]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The figure shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of aluminum futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and spreads, etc. [33][35][38] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Figures show the inventory of bauxite at ports and the price of alumina [45][50]. 3.3 Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum - Figures show the trends of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [49]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - Figures show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods [51][55][56]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: In late May, copper prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations and slower de - stocking pressured prices. The increase in US trade policy may push up copper prices, but market sensitivity may be lower. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan resistance [58]. - Aluminum: In late May, aluminum prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations weakened the upward drive. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs may lead to a decline in global aluminum consumption expectations in the medium - long term, but the short - term impact on the domestic market is limited. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 20,000 yuan long - short game [58].

特朗普可能对铜征收25%关税，纽铜价格飙至历史新高 由于市场预计特朗普可能对铜征收高额进口关税，纽铜创历史新高。 美东时间周二，COMEX铜期货盘中涨超2.3%，刷新盘中历史新高至每磅5.2105美元，超越了去年5月20日创下的 5.199美元的历史纪录。 一方面，交易员担心未来关税实施后进口铜成本增加，所以提前买入纽铜期货进行布局。另一方面，全球铜供应 商、交易商争相在关税落地前 "抢铜" 运往美国，导致美国市场对铜的需求预期大增，需求增加推动纽铜价格上升。 关税预期推升铜价，市场出现套利机会 今年以来，纽铜价格已经累涨约29%，且与伦铜出现前所未有的价差。 具体来说，自今年1月以来，纽铜价格便开始超过伦铜，而特朗普上个月命令美国商务部以国家安全为由对可能的铜 关税展开调查后，二者之间的差距达到了创纪录的水平。 本周一，纽铜近月合约和伦铜的差距一度超过每吨1400美元，创下历史新高。 这一巨大的价格差异为市场提供了巨大的套利机会。交易员们通过将铜提前运入美国，抢先应对潜在的关税影响。 高盛和花旗集团预计，美国将在年底前对铜征收25%的进口关税，因此交易员预计大量铜将会在关税实施之前涌入 美国市场。 Merc ...