印度出口商惊恐万状。纺织、珠宝、农产品等行业首当其冲，订单骤减，如同退潮般消失殆尽。专家预测，如果美国订单减少一半，印度将损失400亿美 元，相当于其GDP的1%。 更令人心寒的是，美国一面对印度步步紧逼，一面却对中国网开一面，再次延长了对华关税的暂停期90天。 印度民众的愤怒情绪 迅速蔓延至街头，社交媒体上"抵制美货"的呼声高涨，麦当劳、可口可乐、苹果等美国品牌的门店遭到袭击，亚马逊货架被洗劫一空。民调显示，89%的印 度人支持政府强硬对抗美国。 莫迪总理也强硬表态："农民就是我们的命！没门！" 阿拉斯加的寒风裹挟着凛冽的政治风暴，席卷全球。8月15日，美俄元首峰会将在阿拉斯加举行，而这场峰会的成败，将直接决定印度的命运。美国财长贝 森特已发出严厉警告：如果峰会谈判破裂，等待印度的将是高达200%的关税惩罚，这道晴天霹雳将令14亿印度人民措手不及。 曾经，美国总统特朗普与印度总理莫迪在今年2月于白宫亲密会晤，互称"最重要的战略伙伴"。然而，短短半年，这幅景象便被撕得粉碎。特朗普对媒体冷 言冷语道："就算印度经济崩溃，我也无所谓。" 8月6日，特朗普签署行政命令，将对印度征收的关税从25%提高至50%，理由是 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government has denied reports of suspending defense procurement negotiations with the United States, stating that all procurement cases are proceeding as per existing procedures [1] - Prior reports suggested that India had paused new arms and aircraft procurement plans from the U.S., seen as a sign of dissatisfaction in U.S.-India relations due to tariff issues [1] - U.S. President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, raising the total tariffs faced by Indian exports to 50% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is India's largest export market, with total exports to the U.S. projected to be nearly $87 billion in 2024 [2] - Experts warn that if the 50% tariffs are implemented, it could significantly impact India's economy, particularly affecting industries such as textiles, automotive parts, steel, and gemstones [2] - In the context of escalating U.S.-India trade tensions, India appears to be strengthening its cooperation with Russia [3][4] Group 3 - Indian and Russian officials held a meeting on August 6 to discuss deepening industrial cooperation, focusing on areas such as rare earth and critical mineral extraction, aerospace technology, carbon fiber, and 3D printing [4] - The meeting resulted in a signed protocol reaffirming the strategic partnership between India and Russia, committing to enhance industrial and economic collaboration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India have officially broken down, leading to President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which he claims is a response to India's high tariffs and non-tariff barriers [1][6][10] Trade Relations - The US is India's largest trading partner, with an estimated goods trade volume of approximately $128.8 billion in 2024, and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the US [8] - Trump's tariffs are significantly higher than those imposed on other countries, such as 20% on Vietnam and 15% on Japan and the EU, putting India at a competitive disadvantage [7] Economic Impact - Following the announcement of tariffs, the Indian rupee depreciated, with the exchange rate dropping to 87.87 against the dollar, marking a five-month low [4] - Analysts predict that India's export prospects and investment attractiveness will suffer, especially if exemptions for key industries like smartphones are removed [7] Geopolitical Context - A major reason for the tariffs is India's continued purchase of energy and military equipment from Russia, with over one-third of India's oil imports and 36% of its weapons coming from Russia [9] - The trade negotiations have been complicated by agricultural disputes, as the US seeks greater access to India's agricultural market, which India is reluctant to open due to food security concerns [10] Future Outlook - Despite the breakdown in negotiations, experts suggest that trade disputes and bargaining may continue, influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India have officially broken down, leading to President Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1, citing India's high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as significant issues [1][5]. Trade Relations - The US-India trade deficit is highlighted, with Trump stating that the trade imbalance is substantial, and India's tariffs are among the highest globally [1][5]. - The US is India's largest trading partner, with projected goods trade of approximately $128.8 billion in 2024, and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the US [6]. Tariff Implications - The 25% tariff on India is notably higher than tariffs imposed on other countries, such as 20% on Vietnam and 15% on Japan and the EU, placing India at a competitive disadvantage [6]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a depreciation of the Indian Rupee, which fell to a five-month low against the dollar [2]. Geopolitical Factors - A significant reason for the tariff imposition is India's continued purchase of energy and military equipment from Russia, with over one-third of India's oil imports and 36% of its weapons coming from Russia [7]. - Trump's previous threats included imposing secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil unless a ceasefire agreement was reached in Ukraine [7]. Agricultural Negotiations - Trade negotiations have stalled primarily due to disagreements in the agricultural sector, where the US seeks greater access while India prioritizes food security and the interests of small farmers [8]. - Despite some concessions from India on tariffs for specific products, the overall trade deficit remains a concern for the US, which aims to reduce the $45.8 billion deficit with India [8].