证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 09 月 11 日 内外需β共振，业绩弹性加速释放 工程机械 2025 年中报总结 中游制造/机械 我们选取三一重工、中联重科、徐工机械、柳工、山推股份、山河智能、厦工 股份、建设机械、恒立液压、艾迪精密、长龄液压、浙江鼎力、诺力股份、安 徽合力、杭叉集团 15 家公司作为 A 股机械行业工程机械板块的研究样本，对 板块 2025 年中报表现以及行业发展现况进行分析探讨。 ①国内市场：2025 年 1-8 月，挖机内销销量同比+21.55%，小挖提速的同时、 中大挖整体也回归增长，农林市政及水利等结构性基建项目驱动更新需求释 放。2025 年 1-7 月，起重机内销销量同比+-4.95%，降幅显著收窄，起重履 带吊在风电抢装等行情驱动下已经开始复苏；关键品类整体"7 增 4 降"，较 2024 年"3 增 8 降"回暖趋势显著。展望未来，随着政府资金持续投入、雅 下水电站等一系列国家级重大工程项目加速落地，国内需求有望持续释放； 落脚到主机厂，上半年内销收入增速排序为三一重工＞柳工＞山推股份＞徐 工机械＞中联重科（业务结构差异所致），基于内需趋势变化，我们认为下 ...

工程机械行业持续呈现"内需改善+出口增长"双重驱动 据中国工程机械工业协会对挖掘机主要制造企业统计，2025年6月销售各类挖掘机18,804台，同比增长 13.3%。其中国内销量8,136台，同比增长6.2%;出口量10,668台，同比增长19.3%。2025年1-6月，共销售 挖掘机120,520台，同比增长16.8%;其中国内销量65,637台，同比增长22.9%;出口54,883台，同比增长 10.2%。电动化方面，6月销售电动挖掘机27台。 从内需看，基建投资加速(万亿国债项目落地)叠加设备更新政策红利释放，内需连续两月扩大彰显增长 韧性。前瞻看，政策资金三季度集中拨付将支撑淡季增长。同时，产品电动化升级趋势(如新能源设备 渗透率提升)正成为行业增长的重要结构性动力，进一步巩固了复苏基础。从出口来看，中东、东南 亚、非洲等新兴市场基建需求旺盛，国产设备性价比优势显著，主机厂通过"一带一路"及新兴市场拓 展，叠加传统市场(欧洲、美洲)需求复苏，出口持续增长。 智通财经APP获悉，万联证券发布研报称，6月销售各类挖掘机18,804台，同比增长13.3%，6月销售各 类装载机12,014台，同比增长11.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.22 RMB based on a 17x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms and improved profitability, with a projected net profit margin increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2022 to Q3 2024 [1]. - Domestic demand for excavators is anticipated to recover, with sales expected to reach 100,500 units in 2024, representing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [1]. - The mining machinery segment is poised for significant growth, with expected revenues of 8.501 billion, 11.552 billion, and 15.445 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 45.1%, 35.9%, and 33.7% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has optimized its revenue structure by merging with Xugong Limited, incorporating high-margin products such as earthmoving and mining machinery [1]. - The focus on improving gross margins and reducing risk exposure has been emphasized through market-oriented executive compensation and stock incentives linked to ROE and net profit [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of -2.7%, +11.5%, and +14.7% from 2024 to 2026 [1]. Mining Machinery - The global open-pit mining machinery market exceeds 37 billion USD, with a projected 3% year-on-year increase in demand for 2024 [2]. - The company has secured nearly 4 billion RMB in orders from top foreign clients, indicating a potential breakout period for its mining machinery segment [2]. - The company’s risk exposure has decreased significantly, which is expected to enhance its valuation as net profit margins improve [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 90.317 billion, 100.662 billion, and 115.458 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 5.946 billion, 7.799 billion, and 10.263 billion RMB [3]. - The expected PE ratios for the same period are 19, 14, and 11 times respectively [3].