公开披露授权 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 公开披露授权 政策研究工作文件 11249 镍、钢和汽车 印尼的出口禁令和国内增值 Hiao Looi Kee E nze Xie 发展经济学 发展研究组 202 5年11月 本文的一个经过验证的可重复性软件包是 可在 http://reproducibility.worldbank.org 上获取 点击 这里 用于直接访问。 政策研究工作论文11249 摘要 镍对于生产钢铁至关重要。印度尼西亚拥有世界最大的 储备，于2014年禁止镍出口以促进工业化。本文研究了 出口禁令对下游钢铁使用产业的影响。一个三部门模型 表明，虽然出口禁令可能会提高国内附加值 出口中的杜杆率（DVAR），小型、低效企业的进入导 致下游整体效率损失。企业层面的证据证实，在实施出 口禁令后，下游行业中的DVAR更高、企业规模更小以 及新进入者份额更大。一次实地考察验证了这些结果， 同时指出对进口钢材的依赖仍然严重。 本文是发展经济学发展研究小组的成果。它是世界银行提供其研究成果开放获取并促进全球发展政策讨论的一项更大 努力的一部分。政策研究工作论文也发布在http://www.worldbank. ...

荷兰经济事务部大臣表示，与中国官员进行了通话，将与中国合作解决安世半导体（Nexperia）问题。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#后续 根据安世半导体（Nexperia）官网声明，自荷兰政府接管安世后，中国商务部在10月4日起已对其中国产品实施出口禁令。目前安世半导体正积极与中国有关部门沟通，争取豁免这些限制，并已为此部署了所有可用资源，也正在与所有相关国家和地方政府部门密切沟通，以减轻该措施的影响。 https://t.co/GW0nYQRsqV ...

安世半导体（Nexperia）表示，其在中国的员工仍可访问公司平台，并照常领取薪资。任何关于未支付工资的说法都是"与事实不符和误导性的"。荷兰经济部长卡雷曼斯表示，他预计将在数日内与中国政府官员会面，讨论如何解决安世半导体的僵局。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#后续 根据安世半导体（Nexperia）官网声明，自荷兰政府接管安世后，中国商务部在10月4日起已对其中国产品实施出口禁令。目前安世半导体正积极与中国有关部门沟通，争取豁免这些限制，并已为此部署了所有可用资源，也正在与所有相关国家和地方政府部门密切沟通，以减轻该措施的影响。 https://t.co/GW0nYQRsqV ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Group 1 - The Russian government announced a temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1 to September 30, applicable to all exporters, including both producers and non-producers of oil products [2] - The decision aims to stabilize the domestic fuel market in Russia, following a previous export ban established in February 2025, which is set to take effect on March 1, 2025 [2] - The current restrictions also apply to suppliers who are direct producers of oil products [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that since China's antimony export ban in December last year, the U.S. has resorted to "roundabout imports" from Thailand and Mexico, acquiring up to 3,834 tons of antimony oxide, nearly equivalent to the total export volume from previous years [1] - Customs data indicates that from December last year to April this year, imports of Chinese antimony products by Thailand and Mexico surged by 300%, despite Thailand having only one antimony smelter and Mexico's sole processing plant restarting production only in April [1][2] - The article reveals that many of the new mining product traders in Nuevo León, Mexico, are actually controlled by offshore Chinese companies, with Unipet Industrial in Thailand being a wholly-owned subsidiary of a Chinese firm, significantly increasing its shipments to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - U.S. buyers openly acknowledge the use of alternative sourcing methods, with one miner admitting to receiving 200 kg of gallium from China, disguised under different labels to bypass scrutiny [2] - In May, a special meeting in China identified "third-country transshipment" as a key target for crackdown, indicating that such smuggling poses a national security threat, although actual enforcement has not met expectations [4] - The article underscores the challenges in global supply chains, suggesting that strict customs checks alone are insufficient to combat the circumvention of export controls, emphasizing the need for regulatory revisions and strategic mineral resource planning [4]