新华财经莫斯科12月1日电（记者包诺敏）据塔斯社援引俄罗斯政府消息报道，俄政府宣布将贵金属废 料和碎料出口的临时禁令再延长六个月，至2026年5月底。 根据俄罗斯政府发布的声明，此次延长的禁令实施期限为2025年12月1日至2026年5月31日。在限制期 间，不仅贵金属废料和碎料本身，镀有贵金属的金属废料和碎料同样被纳入禁止出口范围。 据称，此次禁令不适用阴极锑锭的出口和从精炼厂出口的废旧贵金属批次中抽取的样品出口，不过对其 出口重量保有限制。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Export Ban Impact - Indonesia's nickel export ban, implemented in 2014, aimed to promote domestic industrialization and increase domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in downstream industries[4] - The DVAR in the steel-using sector increased by 5.6% from 2011 to 2020, contrasting with an overall DVAR growth of only 1.1% in the economy[17] - The ban led to a higher share of smaller, less efficient firms entering the market, resulting in an overall loss of efficiency in downstream industries[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The export ban created a buyer's monopoly in the nickel market, leading to a decrease in domestic nickel prices, which in turn lowered steel prices[16] - Despite increased domestic steel usage, the reliance on imported steel remains significant, indicating limited capacity to produce high-quality steel domestically[19] - The average firm size in the steel-using sector decreased significantly post-ban, with a higher proportion of small new entrants, which contributed to lower overall productivity[17] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To minimize unintended negative impacts and further advance industrialization, the government should implement complementary policies such as trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI) facilitation[20] - The findings suggest that while the export ban has started to increase domestic value-added, it also incurs unexpected costs that could hinder long-term growth prospects[30] - The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive and effective policy coordination to enhance economic foundations rather than relying solely on export bans[30]

Government & Regulatory Actions - The Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs is collaborating with Chinese officials to address issues related to Nexperia [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce has imposed export restrictions on Nexperia's products in China, effective October 4th [2] Company Response & Strategy - Nexperia is actively engaging with Chinese authorities to seek exemptions from the export restrictions [2] - Nexperia is deploying all available resources and communicating with relevant government bodies to mitigate the impact of the export restrictions [2]

安世半导体（Nexperia）表示，其在中国的员工仍可访问公司平台，并照常领取薪资。任何关于未支付工资的说法都是"与事实不符和误导性的"。荷兰经济部长卡雷曼斯表示，他预计将在数日内与中国政府官员会面，讨论如何解决安世半导体的僵局。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#后续 根据安世半导体（Nexperia）官网声明，自荷兰政府接管安世后，中国商务部在10月4日起已对其中国产品实施出口禁令。目前安世半导体正积极与中国有关部门沟通，争取豁免这些限制，并已为此部署了所有可用资源，也正在与所有相关国家和地方政府部门密切沟通，以减轻该措施的影响。 https://t.co/GW0nYQRsqV ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Group 1 - The Russian government announced a temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1 to September 30, applicable to all exporters, including both producers and non-producers of oil products [2] - The decision aims to stabilize the domestic fuel market in Russia, following a previous export ban established in February 2025, which is set to take effect on March 1, 2025 [2] - The current restrictions also apply to suppliers who are direct producers of oil products [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights that since China's antimony export ban in December last year, the U.S. has resorted to "roundabout imports" from Thailand and Mexico, acquiring up to 3,834 tons of antimony oxide, nearly equivalent to the total export volume from previous years [1] - Customs data indicates that from December last year to April this year, imports of Chinese antimony products by Thailand and Mexico surged by 300%, despite Thailand having only one antimony smelter and Mexico's sole processing plant restarting production only in April [1][2] - The article reveals that many of the new mining product traders in Nuevo León, Mexico, are actually controlled by offshore Chinese companies, with Unipet Industrial in Thailand being a wholly-owned subsidiary of a Chinese firm, significantly increasing its shipments to the U.S. [2] Group 2 - U.S. buyers openly acknowledge the use of alternative sourcing methods, with one miner admitting to receiving 200 kg of gallium from China, disguised under different labels to bypass scrutiny [2] - In May, a special meeting in China identified "third-country transshipment" as a key target for crackdown, indicating that such smuggling poses a national security threat, although actual enforcement has not met expectations [4] - The article underscores the challenges in global supply chains, suggesting that strict customs checks alone are insufficient to combat the circumvention of export controls, emphasizing the need for regulatory revisions and strategic mineral resource planning [4]