联昌国际经济学家Chew Khai Yen和Michelle Chia报告称，在政府现金援助计划、节庆支出和旅游活动 的推动下，马来西亚的服务业增长势头可能会延续至第一季度。他们将2026年GDP增长预测从此前的 4.4%上调至4.5%，这反映了进入第一季度的势头更为强劲，但其影响部分被下半年的基数较高所抵 消。这些经济学家维持其看法，认为马来西亚央行到2026年底将维持2.75%的利率不变，因为温和的通 胀前景为按兵不动提供了空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate levels in the short term, focusing on economic performance rather than external factors [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has not shown significant rebound, with initial jobless claims remaining at historically low levels, indicating a stabilizing job market [4]. - Economic growth momentum remains resilient, with previous quarterly growth showing strength and no clear signs of contraction from businesses or consumers [8]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Approach - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy reflects a "observe-validate-act" rhythm, prioritizing data clarity over hasty adjustments [4][8]. - Inflation remains a critical variable, with recent data indicating fluctuating price increases, limiting the scope for rapid policy easing [8]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Investors are gradually accepting the reality of a slowed pace of interest rate cuts, with futures indicating limited potential cuts this year, contingent on clear changes in the economy or inflation [12]. - This convergence of expectations helps reduce market volatility and provides a more stable anchor for asset pricing [12]. Group 4: Overall Assessment - The Federal Reserve's policy will continue to revolve around economic fundamentals, and maintaining current interest rates does not signify a directional change but rather a prudent choice [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.75%, supported by inflation nearing the 2% target level, while remaining vigilant about the current trend of the yen's depreciation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation in Japan is close to the 2% target, which supports the decision to keep interest rates unchanged [1] - The yen has been weakening recently, with only slight stabilization observed in the past few days [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The weakness of the yen is primarily attributed to political risks, such as the possibility of early elections [1] - The Japanese central bank may need to adopt a slightly firmer stance to support the yen and avoid exacerbating market tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" while assessing the current level of monetary policy tightening [1] Group 1 - Logan reiterated that a rate cut in October is not reasonable given the persistently high inflation and a generally balanced labor market [1] - She stated that maintaining interest rates steady for a period will allow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to better evaluate the constraints of current policy [1] - There is a call for clear evidence to support any further easing of the policy before making adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) deposit facility rate is maintained at 2%, in line with expectations and previous values [1] - The ECB marginal lending rate is also held steady at 2.4%, matching both expectations and prior figures [1] - The ECB main refinancing rate remains unchanged at 2.15%, consistent with forecasts and previous rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations after a series of seven consecutive rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The main refinancing rate remains unchanged at 2.15% [1] - The marginal lending rate is also held steady at 2.40% [1]

Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba rising over 3% and Kingsoft Cloud increasing nearly 7%, indicating optimistic growth prospects for its cloud services business [1][2] - Netflix's stock rose by 2% after the company raised its full-year revenue forecast [1][2] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 53.82 points, or 0.12%, closing at 44,538.31 [3] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 77.94 points, or 0.37%, reaching 20,963.59 [3] - The S&P 500 index gained 14.74 points, or 0.23%, ending at 6,312.10 [3] Group 3 - Chevron's stock rose by 3% in pre-market trading after successfully completing the acquisition of Hess, winning a competitive bid against ExxonMobil [8][13] - Hess's stock also saw a pre-market increase of over 7% following the arbitration victory against Exxon, which facilitated Chevron's acquisition [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian Treasurer stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain interest rates was not in line with the expectations of millions of Australians, nor was it the anticipated outcome by the market [1] Group 1 - The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia has significant implications for the broader economy and consumer sentiment [1] - The Treasurer's comments highlight a disconnect between government expectations and market realities regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - A minority of European Central Bank members believe that interest rates should be maintained at current levels [1] Group 1 - The meeting minutes indicate a divergence of opinions among ECB members regarding interest rate policy [1] - Some members express concerns about the potential impact of further rate hikes on economic growth [1] - The discussion reflects ongoing debates about inflation and economic stability within the Eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the global situation have not significantly impacted the Bank of England's decision to maintain interest rates in June [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England has indicated that external factors have not influenced its monetary policy decisions [1]