Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fibers: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various chemical products are complex, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and downstream demand influencing their price trends. Each product has its own unique situation, including both short - term and long - term influencing factors [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. The market news was mixed, with supply - demand dynamics in play. Downstream factories were hesitant, and overall market trading was average [2] - Polyethylene had tight spot resources at the end of the month, with upstream suppliers holding firm on prices. Downstream factories had completed stocking, and market caution persisted. Supply - demand was weakly stable, and prices fluctuated within a range [2] - For polypropylene, international oil prices were strong recently, strengthening cost support. Supply - side device maintenance was high, downstream industry开工 increased, and some factories stocked up before the holiday. The market focused on reducing inventory through cautious price cuts [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene futures fluctuated around 5900 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China declined slightly, and trading volume in Shandong decreased. Overall operation slightly increased, processing margins oscillated at a low level, downstream industries stocked up before the holiday, and port inventories decreased. However, high import volumes and expected future demand decline limited the rebound of pure benzene [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. Jiangsu port inventories increased before the National Day, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years. Downstream rigid demand was stable, but spot demand was weak. Pre - holiday stocking was lower than expected, hindering price increases [3] Polyester - PX's upward momentum weakened, and its valuation declined, releasing negative factors. Crude oil's rebound drove synchronous rebounds in PX and PTA. As the long holiday approached, positions on the futures market were continuously reduced. PTA's profitability improved slightly but remained poor. TA - PX spreads narrowed. The polyester filament market saw a significant increase in sales at the end of the day, fulfilling pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, future supply - demand remained under pressure [5] - Domestic ethylene glycol operation decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to decline. The supply pressure was not significant in reality, but supply - demand was expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Risks included low port inventories and uncertainties in the trial runs of two new devices [5] - Short - fiber new production capacity was limited, production was at a high level, and inventories decreased. The recovery of peak - season demand improved industry expectations. Pre - holiday downstream stocking benefits were realized, and long - short spreads should be exited at high levels [5] - A major bottle - chip device in South China stopped production due to seawater backflow caused by a typhoon, making the bottle - chip trend slightly stronger. Long - term over - capacity was a pressure, and the processing margin recovery space was limited. Attention should be paid to the restart schedule of the stopped device [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports were temporarily low, and the operation of coastal MTO devices increased. Some low - end imported goods flowed to the surrounding inland areas, resulting in port inventory reduction. Pre - holiday downstream stocking demand supported the market, but high port inventories and expected inventory accumulation limited the upward potential of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [6] - After a slight increase in urea prices, downstream follow - up was cautious. Agricultural demand was weak, and industrial compound fertilizer demand was insufficient. Daily production remained high, overall demand was less than supply, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. The oversupply situation persisted, and the export window was approaching its end. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to have a high - supply and high - inventory pattern. This week's operation increased month - on - month, with new devices being tested and put into mass production, resulting in high supply pressure. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention was low, and foreign demand was weak. The industry continued to accumulate inventory. Chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and cost support was not obvious. PVC might show a weakening oscillating trend [7] - Caustic soda was in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The downstream demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and inventories continued to increase. Alumina plants had low unloading efficiency, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to receive goods decreased. Device maintenance and restart coexisted, operation fluctuated slightly, and supply continued to be under high pressure. Downstream profits shrank, and there was resistance to high prices. In the short term, Shandong downstream purchases reduced prices, showing a weak reality. However, there might be stocking demand before the future downstream alumina production, and the strong expectation could not be disproven. The futures price might oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was weak during the day. Recently, manufacturers reduced inventory, and supply was at a high level. The photovoltaic industry's fundamentals improved in August, with increased production capacity, driving up the demand for heavy soda ash. However, the photovoltaic industry had cooled down, and the expected increase in heavy soda ash demand was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and opportunities to short at high levels should be sought, but caution was needed near the cost level [8] - Glass weakened during the day. Prices continued to rise today, and manufacturers' overall sales were good. The melting rate was oscillating at a relatively high level. Processing orders improved month - on - month but were still insufficient, and some project orders increased. The actual situation of whether Zhengkang coal - made gas would be centrally used in Shahe should be continuously monitored. In the short term, market sentiment was high, and with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of glass production capacity control, the futures price was expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, if production capacity reduction did not materialize, the market might return to a weak - reality trading pattern [8]

化工日报 | 2025-09-12 新装置提前投产，市场心态承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4302元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.39%），EG华东市场现货价 4422元/吨（较前一交易日变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.41%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）106元/吨（环比-11元/ 吨）。隆众资讯9月11日报道：山东一套90万吨/年的乙二醇新装置昨日开始前端投料试车，目前进展顺利，后期关 注工厂出料进展。新装置提前投产，市场心态承压。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-61美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+1 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为45.9万吨（环比+1.0万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为36.3万吨（环比-1.3万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数9.3万吨，到港量中性。截 至9月11日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量36.32万吨，较周一降低2.36万吨；较上周四降低1.31万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇负 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical products market is generally weak, with different products showing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products have supply - demand improvement expectations in the short - term, while others face long - term supply pressure [2][3][5][6][7] - For most products, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as device status, oil price trends, policy changes, and seasonal demand [3][5][6][7] Summary by Product Category Pure Benzene - Petrochemical products are weak, the unified benzene futures price has declined, and Sinopec has lowered the listed price. Although the port inventory has been decreasing, domestic demand is weak, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance. The BZ - NAP spread has slightly weakened, and the basis has declined [2] - There are expectations of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and seasonal demand recovery, but imports still pose pressure on the market, and the supply - demand situation may be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Polyester - The PX price dropped during the day, causing the PTA price to weaken. Terminal weaving is improving, demand is rising, and with no new PX installations planned for this year, the supply - demand outlook is improving, which is expected to drive up the industry chain. However, the market has already factored in these expectations, and stronger drivers are needed for the PX price to continue rising [3] - Ethylene glycol is fluctuating around 4,500 yuan/ton. Domestic production has increased, and terminal demand has improved, leading to simultaneous growth in supply and demand. A significant decrease in arrivals has boosted the market in the short - term. Whether it can continue to rise in the medium - term depends on policies and the pace of peak - season demand recovery [3] - The short - fiber supply - demand is stable. The price dropped with the cost during the day, and the short - term margin and spot processing margin weakened, but the futures processing margin rebounded. With limited new production capacity this year, the expected increase in peak - season demand will boost the short - fiber industry. If demand improvement materializes in the medium - term, a long - position configuration is advisable [3] - The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure. Recently, the raw material price has rebounded, causing the bottle - chip processing margin to further decline and the basis to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of petrochemical industry policies [3] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly during the day, and the port inventory increased substantially within the cycle. Currently, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants is low, and the arrival of imported methanol remains high. Although some coastal supplies are flowing back to the inland, the affected areas and the total amount of back - flowing supplies are limited. With the end of autumn maintenance and the outflow of Xinjiang supplies, inland methanol supply is increasing, the marginal demand for external procurement by olefin plants is weakening, the average operating rate of traditional downstream industries is declining, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory rapidly, and the current situation remains weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the possibility of restarting coastal MTO plants [5] - The urea futures price is fluctuating at a low level, and the spot price has slightly decreased. The enthusiasm for port collection in the industry has increased, and the port inventory has increased within the cycle, but the market sentiment is cautious. Supply remains high, demand is weakening seasonally, and production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. As the subsequent state reserve purchase approaches, it is expected that the purchases will be scattered, and it is unlikely that a concentrated purchase will drive up the urea price. The supply - demand pressure has become a trend, and attention should be paid to changes in export - related news that may affect market sentiment [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price dropped during the day. Although PVC itself is operating at a loss, the caustic soda market is performing well, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, so the cost support is not obvious. Qingdao Gulf has plans for new production, and supply pressure remains. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, domestic demand is weak, and external demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has been increasing since July. The low valuation and weak reality are in a tug - of - war, and the futures price may fluctuate within a range [6] - The caustic soda price has dropped from a high level. The rigid demand from the alumina industry provides strong support, and the recent operating rates of non - aluminum industries such as pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing have slightly increased, with restocking demand providing support, and the inventory has been continuously decreasing. After the continuous increase in the spot price, non - aluminum downstream industries have recently shown resistance to the price. The profit is good, and there is still supply pressure in the future. The current price is not very cost - effective, and the room for further price increase is limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price is fluctuating weakly during the day. Anhui Hongsifang has resumed operation, and Wucai Alkali Industry has stopped for maintenance and is expected to resume on the 29th. The supply is fluctuating slightly at a high level. The inventory decreased on Monday, but the inventory at all levels of the industry chain is high, and the weak reality persists. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have improved recently, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash has slightly increased. In the long - term, the soda ash supply will remain under high pressure, facing a supply - demand surplus situation. It is advisable to short at high - level rebounds, but caution is needed at low - valuation levels [7] - The glass price is fluctuating. The decline in the spot price has narrowed, and the price has increased slightly in some areas. Due to the military parade in September, the operation of deep - processing plants in the Shahe area has been affected, and glass factories continue to accumulate inventory. Recently, the production capacity has changed little, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month - on - month but are still weak year - on - year. The current situation is weak, but at the current low - valuation level, attention should be paid to whether there will be restocking demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". It is expected that the downward range of the futures price is limited, and a long - position strategy near the cost can be considered [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated arrival of delayed goods affected by the typhoon last week, the main ports accumulated inventory this week, causing the price center of ethylene glycol to oscillate downward and the basis to weaken [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2]. - On the supply side, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production in China has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants on the non-coal side have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, with an overall load that is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and ideally, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the terminal in July, significantly alleviating the inventory pressure of filament. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable at a low level with a slight increase in August [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2].

Summary of TDI Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The TDI market is currently experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics globally, with significant impacts from production disruptions in Europe and varying demand across regions [1][13][21]. Key Points European TDI Market - A production incident at Covestro has affected half of the European TDI capacity, which totals 600,000 tons, primarily from Covestro in Germany and Wanhua in Hungary [1][3]. - The expected recovery time for the affected facility is approximately one month, with a repair period of 3 to 4 weeks followed by testing [2]. - The incident may lead to a supply shortage in Europe, increasing the need for imports [1]. U.S. TDI Market - The U.S. TDI market is performing well, with a total capacity of 390,000 tons from Covestro and BASF, maintaining an operating rate of around 90% [1][5]. - Demand is primarily driven by the furniture and automotive sectors, with a focus on domestic self-sufficiency [6]. Asian TDI Market - Asia is a major TDI production region, with high operating rates in South Korea, although Hanwha faces cost pressures [1][7]. - Japan's Mitsui Chemicals has reduced its capacity from 120,000 tons to 50,000 tons, focusing on domestic needs and reducing exports [8]. - Saudi Arabia's TDI production is stable but of lower quality, while India and Iran have smaller capacities with varying operational stability [9][10]. Chinese TDI Market - China's TDI capacity is concentrated in Wanhua and Shanghai Covestro, with significant expansions planned for 2025 [10]. - Domestic operating rates are generally above 80%, with some facilities scheduled for maintenance [11][12]. Demand and Pricing Trends - Domestic TDI demand is expected to slightly increase to 970,000-980,000 tons in 2025, influenced by the furniture and automotive industries [4][18]. - Recent price increases have seen TDI prices rise from approximately 10,000 yuan to between 15,000 and 16,000 yuan per ton, driven by traders rather than direct factory pricing [21]. - Export demand has surged, increasing by over 80% year-on-year, with low inventory levels across the supply chain [23][24]. Future Market Outlook - The global TDI market is expected to remain tight, with new capacity largely dependent on leading companies like Wanhua, facing high marginal costs that may delay new projects [13][14]. - The overall inventory level is low, with upstream and downstream inventories at reduced levels due to previous market conditions [24]. - Future price trends are anticipated to continue rising, influenced by external market conditions and potential supply disruptions [21][22]. Additional Insights - The furniture sector, accounting for 40% of TDI demand, has seen a 20% increase in retail sales, although overall growth is tempered by a decline in exports [18]. - The automotive sector's TDI demand has increased due to higher production rates, while other sectors like coatings and elastomers show stable demand [18][19]. - There is a lack of specialized data tracking for soft furniture that uses TDI, complicating market analysis [20]. This summary encapsulates the current state and future outlook of the TDI market, highlighting key regional dynamics, demand trends, and pricing movements.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None; Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main EG contract closed at 4,234 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-1.19%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,347 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.64%). The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The restart of large-scale EG plants led to price decline [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$38/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that of coal-based syngas EG was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at major ports in East China was 634,000 tons, up 13,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 564,000 tons, down 34,000 tons. The planned arrivals at major ports in East China this week are relatively high, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation [1]. - In June, the domestic supply is expected to gradually recover, but the recovery is limited. After the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot will increase, and overseas arrivals will gradually rise. The demand has declined due to polyester production cuts, and future attention should be paid to polyester sales and the restart progress of large EG plants [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,234 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,347 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 86 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$38/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was 55 yuan/ton [1] International Spread - No specific content provided Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - No specific content provided Inventory Data - According to CCF, the inventory at major ports in East China was 634,000 tons; according to Longzhong, it was 564,000 tons. The planned arrivals this week are high, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [1]