近期，全球大豆市场展开新一轮博弈，美豆期货主力合约在1050美分/蒲式耳附近震荡运行。 看向国际市场，新湖期货农产品分析师刘英杰告诉期货日报记者，美豆期价短暂企稳，离不开中国企业 采购的托底。 展望后市，刘英杰表示，若南美主产区天气无重大变化，美豆期价将缺乏上行动力。 刘冰欣则认为，若巴西1.8亿吨级别的丰产预期成为现实，全球大豆成本重心将显著下移，大豆市场"外 弱内强"的格局可能持续。 吴晓杰表示，一季度到港量不足的现实与供应紧张的预期，是支撑近期豆粕价格走强的主要因素。3月 下旬至4月初，巴西新作上市进度与国内实际到港量将决定供应缺口能否被有效填补，这一时期的市场 波动将显著上升，交易者应控制好仓位。 期货日报记者，关注宏观经济、大宗 商品动态等。 郑泉 ____ 期货日报 看向国内市场，刘英杰表示，虽然当前国内豆粕库存高企，但受宏观情绪转好、春节前抛储暂停等利多 提振，豆粕期货价格或震荡走强。 谈及今年一季度的供应格局，刘冰欣表示，国内港口大豆库存在1—2月加速回落已成定局，不过进口大 豆拍卖有效补充了供应缺口，春节前大概率不会出现大面积缺豆停榨的情况。国产大豆价格近期上涨的 主要原因是产区基层农户普遍 ...

12月16日，豆粕期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约小幅上涨0.40%，报2773.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 12月12日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存700万吨，周环比上升29万吨，月环比下降6万吨，同比上升39万吨，较过去三年均值上升168万吨；豆粕 库存107万吨，周环比下降8万吨，月环比上升8万吨，同比上升42万吨，较过去三年同期均值上升44万吨。 12月15日，大商所豆粕期货仓单录得23830手，较上一交易日持平；最近一周，豆粕期货仓单整体持平；最近一个月，豆粕期货仓单累计下降 17458手，下降幅度为42.28%。 NOPA月报显示，美国11月豆粕产量为5109386短吨。 机构观点 铜冠金源期货：南美作物前景积极，巴西1月份部分产区开始收割工作，届时供应出口将逐步增多。民间出口商报告向中国销售13.6万吨大豆，但 是美豆出口销售进度整体偏慢，距离采购1200万吨目标或达6-7成，出口需求担忧，美豆震荡偏弱运行。关注本周进口大豆拍卖，短期供应有偏紧 预期，但当前国内高库存限制上涨幅度，近强远弱格局延续。预计短期连粕主力合约震荡运行。 建信期货：上周内进口大豆进行拍卖，共成交39万多吨，均价为3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The slowdown of Malaysia's palm oil export data, combined with overseas institutions raising the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America being realized, increased soybean supply pressure, and favorable weather in the US soybean producing areas all put pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,838.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -72 yuan and a change rate of -0.81% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,250.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -24.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.29% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,542.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +18.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.19% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,800.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -130.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.46%. The spot basis was P09 + -38.00, with a month-on-month change of -58.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.24%. The spot basis was Y09 + 120.00, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,630.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.21%. The spot basis was OI09 + 88.00, with a month-on-month change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Consultation Palm Oil - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 was 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared to the same period last month - Reuters survey showed that the estimated palm oil inventory in Malaysia in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons, an 10.8% increase from June; the estimated production was 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June; the estimated export volume was 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June [2] Soybean - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% year-on-year increase - Celeres estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.2 million tons (previous season: 172.8 million tons) and the export volume would be 110 million tons (previous season: 106 million tons) [2] Other - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 574 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 564 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,129 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 288 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]