Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The demand during the peak season is boosting pig prices, with a strong expectation of price fluctuations [3][31] - By the end of October 2025, the national breeding sow inventory is expected to drop below 40 million heads, a decrease of at least 350,000 heads from the end of September 2025, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][32] Group 2: Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens continues to decline, supporting egg prices, with a reported inventory of approximately 1.295 billion hens in December, a month-on-month decrease of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [3][32] - Recent cooler weather has increased the shelf life of eggs, enhancing the pricing power of producers and leading to better sales at the retail level [3][32] Group 3: Soybean Meal Market - The USDA's January supply and demand report indicates a stable soybean yield forecast of 53.00 bushels per acre for the 2025/26 season, with an expected production of 4.262 billion bushels, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [4][32] - The report also predicts an increase in year-end soybean stocks to 350 million bushels, up from 290 million bushels in December [4][32] Group 4: Corn Market - China's corn production for 2025 is estimated at 602.47 billion jin (approximately 301 million tons), an increase of 12.64 billion jin or 2.1% from 2024 [4][32] - Issues with grain spoilage due to excessive rainfall in northern China are leading feed enterprises to prefer northeastern corn, contributing to a strong market for northeastern corn [4][32]

Group 1 - The global soybean market is experiencing a new round of competition, with US soybean futures fluctuating around 1050 cents per bushel [1] - Analysts indicate that the recent stabilization of US soybean prices is supported by purchases from Chinese enterprises, but the focus is shifting to weather conditions in South America's main production areas as 2026 approaches [1][2] - Current favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have led institutions to raise production forecasts, creating a strong expectation of high yields, which, combined with a lack of new bullish drivers in the US market, suggests that the upward momentum for US soybean prices is not solid [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic soybean meal inventories are currently high, but improved macro sentiment and a pause in state reserves sales before the Spring Festival may support a potential increase in soybean meal futures prices [1] - The supply dynamics for the first quarter indicate that domestic port soybean inventories are expected to decline rapidly in January and February, but effective imports from soybean auctions are likely to fill supply gaps, preventing widespread soybean shortages before the Spring Festival [1][2] - The market is closely monitoring the supply situation before the arrival of new Brazilian soybeans, with uncertainties regarding the harvest and shipping schedule, as well as a potential supply shortage due to a 20 to 25-day customs clearance period [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, if there are no significant changes in weather conditions in South America's main production areas, US soybean prices are expected to lack upward momentum [3] - If Brazil achieves a production level of 180 million tons, the global soybean cost center will significantly decline, potentially leading to a market dynamic characterized by weakness externally and strength internally [3] - The combination of insufficient arrival volumes in the first quarter and tight supply expectations is supporting the recent strength in soybean meal prices, with market volatility expected to increase significantly from late March to early April as the progress of new Brazilian crops and actual arrival volumes will determine whether supply gaps can be effectively filled [3]

Core Viewpoint - Soybean meal futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract rising by 0.40% to 2773.00 CNY/ton as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Trends - As of December 12, major oil mills in China have an imported soybean inventory of 7 million tons, which is an increase of 290,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 60,000 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 390,000 tons year-on-year, surpassing the three-year average by 1.68 million tons [2] - The soybean meal inventory stands at 1.07 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week, an increase of 80,000 tons month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 420,000 tons, also exceeding the three-year average by 440,000 tons [2] - On December 15, the Dalian Commodity Exchange recorded 23,830 soybean meal futures warehouse receipts, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day; however, there has been a cumulative decrease of 17,458 receipts over the past month, representing a decline of 42.28% [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates a positive outlook for South American crops, with Brazil starting its harvest in January, which is expected to increase supply for export. However, U.S. soybean export sales are lagging, raising concerns about demand, leading to a bearish trend for U.S. soybeans [4] - Jianxin Futures reports that last week, 390,000 tons of imported soybeans were auctioned at an average price of approximately 3,935 CNY, showing a significant premium over the base price with a transaction rate of about 77%, which is better than market expectations [4] - The overall sentiment is improving, but soybean meal futures are expected to revert to the pricing system based on CBOT soybean costs, with short-term auctions or clearance issues primarily affecting spot prices and basis, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The slowdown of Malaysia's palm oil export data, combined with overseas institutions raising the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America being realized, increased soybean supply pressure, and favorable weather in the US soybean producing areas all put pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,838.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -72 yuan and a change rate of -0.81% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,250.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -24.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.29% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,542.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +18.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.19% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,800.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -130.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.46%. The spot basis was P09 + -38.00, with a month-on-month change of -58.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.24%. The spot basis was Y09 + 120.00, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,630.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.21%. The spot basis was OI09 + 88.00, with a month-on-month change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Consultation Palm Oil - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 was 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared to the same period last month - Reuters survey showed that the estimated palm oil inventory in Malaysia in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons, an 10.8% increase from June; the estimated production was 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June; the estimated export volume was 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June [2] Soybean - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% year-on-year increase - Celeres estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.2 million tons (previous season: 172.8 million tons) and the export volume would be 110 million tons (previous season: 106 million tons) [2] Other - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 574 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 564 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,129 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 288 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]