【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期 去库，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量略有减少，仍位于历史最 高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。英法乌签署意向声明拟在俄乌停火后派兵乌克兰，美国将 提供包括情报和后勤等支援，并且"承诺在俄罗斯发动攻击时为该部队提供支持"。不过特朗普警 告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。信实 工业表态，其贾姆纳格尔炼油厂在过去约三周内未收到任何俄罗斯石油，且预计1月份也不会有俄罗 斯原油交付。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，美国2025年12月ISM制造业 指数小幅下降，已连续10个月低于50，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库高 企，原油仍是供应过剩格局。元旦前，全球原油市场已显示出消化委内瑞拉原油出口受限的迹象， 此次军事行动，该国 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期 去库，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最 高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常 大的进展"，英法乌签署意向声明拟在俄乌停火后派兵乌克兰，美国将提供包括情报和后勤等支援， 并且"承诺在俄罗斯发动攻击时为该部队提供支持"。不过特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限 制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。信实工业表态，其贾姆纳格尔炼油 厂在过去约三周内未收到任何俄罗斯石油，且预计1月份也不会有俄罗斯原油交付。欧美成品油裂解 价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，美国2025年12月ISM制造业指数小幅下降，已连续10个月 低于50，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局。 元旦前，全 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot Prices Rise Significantly, and Basis Discount Narrows Slightly - As of the week ending September 19, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was quoted at $65.39 per barrel, equivalent to a RMB quote of 465.1 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 12.6 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 closed at 486.0 yuan per barrel, with a significant week - on - week increase of 10.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree narrowed slightly, and the basis between them was 20.9 yuan per barrel [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominate, Crude Oil Rises First and Then Falls - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. The cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 this week reached 2.16% to 487.0 yuan per barrel [4][11][12]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalates, and the Pace of Production Increase Accelerates 2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant month - on - month increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. The production increase decision of OPEC+ does not mean the full realization of actual production, and the actual production may be affected by various factors [23][24][25]. 2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - Since 2025, the crude oil production in the United States has remained at a high level. As of the week ending September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a slight week - on - week increase of 2, and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [40]. 2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - Entering September, the peak season of crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will come to an end, the demand factor will gradually weaken, the inventory depletion rhythm will slow down, and the pressure of inventory accumulation will come. Different energy institutions have different views on the future oil market. OPEC expects a tighter oil market next year, while EIA and IEA expect a record - breaking supply surplus in the global oil market next year [43][44][45]. 2.4 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Drops Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Decreases Slightly - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The refinery utilization rate in the United States was maintained at 93.9%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [47]. 2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increased Slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight year - on - year increase of 392,000 tons. However, looking forward to the Chinese crude oil market in 2025, crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [50]. 3 U.S. - Russia Summit, Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska. Although no agreement was reached, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, which will lead to a shrinkage of the premium of international crude oil futures, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the supply - demand structure [60][63]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since September 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile downward trend, and the market's long - making power has continued to shrink. As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 81,844 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts [65]. 5 Conclusion - OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4][68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with bullish factors prevailing and showing a slightly stronger - than - expected trend. The contract may maintain a slightly stronger - than - expected trend in Friday night trading [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating and slightly weak", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly strong", and the reference view is "running strongly" [1] Driving Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus. In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent, but the negative impact on the futures price may be limited [5] Price Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a slightly stronger - than - expected trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.64% to 459.6 yuan per barrel [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term (Wednesday night), while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term. The market is currently digesting bearish factors, and after the holiday, the contract opened lower to absorb the negative news. With the price rebounding slightly on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - **Supply Situation**: OPEC+ countries will increase production at a faster pace in June, and U.S. shale oil production is also growing steadily, leading to an increased expectation of supply surplus in the oil market [5]. - **Demand Situation**: In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5]. - **Price Movement**: After the holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract opened significantly lower and ran weakly to digest bearish factors. On Tuesday night, the oil price stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded 1.62% to 457.3 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [5].