ni 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 9 月 22 日 原油周报 偏空因素主导 原油冲高回落 核心观点 原油：随着地缘因素被市场消化以后，油市供应过剩的预期 再度成为左右油市的主导因素。由于 OPEC+产油国公布的 8 月产量 数据偏空，叠加未来北半球需求淡季到来，四季度供应过剩压力加 重，导致本周国内外原油期货价格呈现冲高回落的走势，期价涨幅 收敛。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约当周累计涨幅达 2.16%至 487.0 元/桶。 原油-SC 宝城期货金融研究所 由于 OPEC+持续扩大增产，力争抢夺全球原油市场份额，或导 致今年四季度原油供应过剩压力加大，油价重心下移。后市仍需关 注地缘风险。目前中东、俄乌、南美依然是油市地缘风险发生的聚 集点，一旦动乱升级，都将给予原油期货带来溢价空间。在短期供 应利空主导的背景下，预计后市国内外原油期货价格或维持震荡偏 弱的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run strongly, with bullish factors prevailing and showing a slightly stronger - than - expected trend. The contract may maintain a slightly stronger - than - expected trend in Friday night trading [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating and slightly weak", the intraday view is "oscillating and slightly strong", and the reference view is "running strongly" [1] Driving Logic - OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and US shale oil production is also growing steadily, increasing the expectation of oil market supply surplus. In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent, but the negative impact on the futures price may be limited [5] Price Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a slightly stronger - than - expected trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.64% to 459.6 yuan per barrel [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term (Wednesday night), while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term. The market is currently digesting bearish factors, and after the holiday, the contract opened lower to absorb the negative news. With the price rebounding slightly on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - **Supply Situation**: OPEC+ countries will increase production at a faster pace in June, and U.S. shale oil production is also growing steadily, leading to an increased expectation of supply surplus in the oil market [5]. - **Demand Situation**: In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5]. - **Price Movement**: After the holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract opened significantly lower and ran weakly to digest bearish factors. On Tuesday night, the oil price stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded 1.62% to 457.3 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [5].