Group 1 - The report highlights two significant market rallies since the beginning of 2025, characterized by distinct trading themes: the first being the "East Rising, West Falling" trade and the second being a rebound following tariff shocks [1][2] - The first rally was driven by a weak dollar, which benefitted emerging markets and led to a notable performance in China's technology growth sector, particularly in humanoid robots and computing power [1][2] - The second rally, which began after a sharp market drop on April 7, 2025, was marked by a lack of a clear trading theme, instead exhibiting a "fan-like" rotation among various sectors, including anti-tariff, domestic consumption, and new energy [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes a difference in the characteristics of sector rotation between the two rallies, with the first rally showing a smaller rotation area (45.2%) and a higher average excess return (7.8%) compared to the second rally, which had a larger rotation area (over 60%) but a lower average excess return (6.5%) [3][4] - In the first rally, the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector saw a significant increase in trading volume, peaking at 45% by the end of February, while the second rally indicated a shift towards other sectors like defense and new consumption [4][6] - The report anticipates that the next market rally may replicate the "East Rising, West Falling" trade, driven by a continued weak dollar and increased liquidity, with a projected total market volume rising above 1.5 trillion [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests that in the current market environment, characterized by stock rotation, sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries should be closely monitored for potential investment opportunities [7] - It emphasizes that the upcoming market rally will likely benefit from a weak dollar, which is expected to enhance the performance of growth stocks, particularly in technology sectors like computing power and humanoid robots [7][6] - The report indicates that while some sectors may appear overvalued, the AI sector, particularly those involved in algorithm iterations and infrastructure upgrades, is expected to be a key driver of the next upward trend [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced significant declines, with major indices dropping over 2% to 3% amid ongoing market volatility and external pressures [2][3][5]. Market Performance - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22% to 3075.75, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.04% to 9138.12. The ChiNext Index also saw a decline of over 3% [2][3]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index opened down by 3.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by over 5%. Notably, the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors faced significant losses, with companies like Wan Zhou International and WuXi Biologics experiencing declines of nearly 10% and over 8%, respectively [5]. Corporate Actions - Multiple companies announced share buyback and stake increase plans, with at least 56 A-share listed companies releasing such announcements between April 7 and 8. This included nearly 140 companies disclosing share repurchase plans [15]. - China Aluminum Group and China Minmetals Group both announced plans to increase their stakes in listed companies, with China Aluminum planning to invest between 1 billion to 2 billion RMB [14]. Government and Institutional Support - The "national team" has been actively buying ETFs to stabilize the market, with significant purchases reported from Central Huijin Investment and other state-owned entities [17][21]. - The People's Bank of China indicated readiness to provide sufficient re-lending support to Central Huijin, further emphasizing the commitment to market stability [17]. Investment Outlook - Analysts maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that despite uncertainties from trade tensions, the influx of capital and institutional support could lead to a more stable market environment [23]. - The focus on high-quality and high-dividend assets is expected to prevail, with potential opportunities arising from recent market dips [23].

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]