智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布市场策略报告，主要分析了过去几年欧洲投资组合中两个显著落后的 板块：欧股"十一罗汉"Granolas以及法国股市。摩根大通认为，Granolas的风险回报正在改善，法国股 市有望触底回升。 Granolas风险回报正在改善 Granolas已风光不再。Granolas(包括葛兰素史克、罗氏、阿斯麦、雀巢、诺华、诺和诺德、欧莱雅、路 威酩轩、阿斯利康、SAP和赛诺菲等11家欧洲大型公司)曾是市场的佼佼者，但自2024年初以来已显著 跑输欧洲大盘指数约25%，其市值占欧洲整体市值的比例也从去年年初的峰值27%降至20%。 摩根大通认为，法国长期债券收益率不太可能继续上涨，而且在法国政府未通过信任投票后，负面冲击 可能会暂时消退，从反向投资的角度来看，法国股市的投资机会颇具吸引力。 摩根大通表示， 尽管股价表现疲软，但Granolas盈利并未恶化。2025年该组合的每股收益增长率预计为 8%，而欧洲股市整体盈利则基本持平。因此，Granolas估值过高的问题已得到纠正，当前市盈率较过去 10年中位数有6%的折让，已回归合理水平。 摩根大通强调，不确定性仍然很高，法国可能在10月初再次 ...

Core Viewpoint - David Tepper's Appaloosa Management significantly reduced its holdings in Chinese stocks like Alibaba and JD while increasing its investment in UnitedHealth Group, showcasing a contrarian investment strategy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Appaloosa reduced its Alibaba holdings by over 20% to 7.1 million shares, valued at approximately $802 million, making Alibaba still the largest position in the fund [1]. - The fund also cut its JD position by 13%, Baidu by 19%, and more than 50% of its position in Pinduoduo [2]. - In contrast, Appaloosa increased its stake in UnitedHealth Group by 2.3 million shares, valued at $764 million, making it the second-largest holding in the fund's $6.45 billion stock portfolio, accounting for about 11.9% [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Context - UnitedHealth's stock price fell approximately 40% in the second quarter, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500, amid the company's suspension of annual forecasts, CEO change, and a criminal investigation for alleged insurance fraud [2]. - Following the news of Appaloosa's investment, UnitedHealth's stock price rose nearly 10% in after-hours trading [3]. Group 3: Other Notable Investments - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway also purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth in the second quarter, while reducing its stakes in Bank of America and Apple [4].

Core Insights - David Tepper's Appaloosa LP significantly increased its stake in UnitedHealth (UNH.US) during Q2, showcasing a contrarian investment strategy [1][2] - The total market value of Appaloosa LP's holdings decreased to $6.45 billion from $8.38 billion, a 23% decline quarter-over-quarter [1] - Alibaba (BABA.US) remains the largest holding, with approximately 7.07 million shares valued at about $800 million, representing 12.43% of the portfolio, down 23.43% from the previous quarter [1][2] Holdings Overview - UnitedHealth (UNH.US) is the second-largest holding, with around 2.45 million shares valued at approximately $764 million, a 1300% increase in holdings compared to the previous quarter [2] - Amazon (AMZN.US) ranks third, holding about 2.7 million shares valued at approximately $592 million, a 7.57% increase from the last quarter [2] - Vistra Energy (VST.US) is the fourth-largest holding, with around 1.8 million shares valued at approximately $349 million, a 21.74% decrease from the previous quarter [2] - NRG Energy (NRG.US) is the fifth-largest holding, with about 1.98 million shares valued at approximately $318 million, a 3.41% decrease from the last quarter [3] New Positions and Exits - Appaloosa LP established new positions in Intel (INTC.US), Raytheon Technologies (RTX.US), United Airlines (UAL.US), and Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) during Q2 [3] - The firm exited positions in Apple put options (AAPL.US, PUT), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS.US) [3] Top Buy and Sell Changes - The top five new buys included UnitedHealth, Nvidia (NVDA.US), Amazon, TSMC (TSM.US), and Intel [3] - The top five sells included SPDR S&P 500 Fossil put options (SPYX.US, PUT), Apple put options, Alibaba, and the China large-cap ETF (FXI.US) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has risen 14% in two trading sessions despite receiving two analyst downgrades, indicating market resilience and investor confidence in the company's long-term potential [1][5][10] Analyst Downgrades - Baird downgraded Tesla from Buy to Hold, citing concerns over the recent public dispute between Elon Musk and President Trump, which they believe introduces uncertainty to Tesla's prospects [2][4] - Argus Research also downgraded Tesla, focusing on how the Musk-Trump dispute could weaken demand, particularly with potential expiration of EV tax credits [4] Market Reaction - The stock's ability to rise despite negative analyst coverage suggests that investors view the downgrades as temporary noise rather than significant threats [5][6] - The broader analyst community remains bullish, with firms like Piper Sandler maintaining an Overweight rating and Wedbush setting a price target of $500 [7][8] Contrarian Investment Opportunity - The current situation presents a contrarian investment opportunity, as the stock has absorbed a 25% decline from political noise yet still surged 14% [9][10] - The downgrades primarily focus on political uncertainty rather than fundamental business deterioration, reinforcing the view that these negative factors are temporary [8] Long-term Outlook - Tesla's upcoming affordable vehicle launch and robotaxi development are on track, indicating that the company's core market position continues to strengthen globally [10][11] - The market's quick dismissal of the downgrades suggests that the current buying opportunity may be short-lived, as political tensions are likely to resolve [12][13]