Core Viewpoint - Global fund managers are entering risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to multi-month highs, but Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett warns that this "famous contrarian indicator" may trigger a clear sell signal [1][7]. Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - The latest survey indicates that investor risk appetite has increased at the fastest rate since 2001 over the past three months [3]. - In July, the allocation to U.S. stocks saw the largest increase since December, while tech stock allocation recorded the biggest three-month increase since 2009 [3][11]. - The average cash level held by fund managers dropped to 3.9% in July from 4.2% in June, crossing the 4.0% threshold, which is viewed as a "sell signal" [6][25]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - There has been a significant turnaround in the outlook for corporate earnings, with optimism reaching its highest level since 2020 [11]. - A net 59% of respondents believe that a recession is unlikely in the coming year, marking a stark contrast to the pessimism observed after April 1 [13][11]. - Concerns about a global economic recession triggered by trade conflicts remain the largest tail risk, followed by inflation hindering Fed rate cuts and a significant drop in the dollar [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The survey, conducted from July 3 to 10, covered 175 fund managers managing $434 billion in assets, revealing a comprehensive influx of funds into risk assets [9]. - The most crowded trading strategies include shorting the dollar (34%), going long on "Big Seven" tech stocks (26%), and going long on gold (25%) [18][22]. - Hartnett emphasizes that the survey has become an excellent contrarian indicator, marking key turning points in the market [24]. Group 4: Indicators of Market Conditions - The survey results indicate that cash levels below 4.0%, expectations of a soft landing exceeding 90%, and net equity allocations being over 20% are signs of a market nearing "overheated" conditions [24][25]. - Despite the risk of a pullback, Hartnett does not anticipate a massive sell-off this summer, as stock exposure has not reached "extreme" levels and bond market volatility remains controlled [26].

全球基金经理正以创纪录的速度涌入风险资产，将市场情绪推升至数月高点。 美银基金经理调查素有市场"著名反指"之称，过去12个月在关键拐点均发出准确信号。 最新调查显示， 过去三个月投资者的风险偏好出现了2001年以来最快的增长速度。 然而，美银知名分析师Michael Hartnett警告： 这一被其称为"著名反向指标"的调查，可能正在触发一个明确的卖出信号。 7月份，投资者对美国股票的配置出现12月以来最大增幅，对科技股的配置也创下2009年以来最大的三个月增幅。同时，基金经理持有的现金水平已降至 3.9%，跌破4.0%的门槛，这在美国银行的交易规则中被视为一个"卖出信号"。 （基金经理持有的平均现金水平在7月降至3.9%，而6月为4.2%，这触发了"卖出"信号） 这一轮乐观情绪的背后，是标普500指数不断创下历史新高，市场对企业盈利前景和美国能够成功应对贸易争端的信心增强。调查中，认为未来一年经济不会 陷入衰退的受访者比例出现彻底逆转，悲观预期几乎消失。 尽管市场一片看好，但Hartnett已开始提示风险。 正如他所说，"贪婪总是比恐惧更难逆转"。 乐观情绪升温，资金跑步入场 美国银行的最新调查描绘了一幅资 ...