证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 信用利差低位小幅震荡 ——信用分析周报（2025/11/17-2025/11/21） 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）信用热点事件：（1）九台农商行二级资本债持续出现低价成 交；（2）上交所对 3 家债券发行人予以书面警示；（3）中国人民银行北京市分行 发文支持科创企业通过债券市场募集资金。 本周市场概览： 联系人 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、净融资额环比上周均有所增加，偿还量环比 上周有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 184 亿元。本周 AA 城投债、 产业债发行利率较上周有较大幅度下行，落在 2.6-2.8%区间内；其余不同评级不同 券种的发行利率在 1.9-2.4%区间内。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 341 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率较上周涨跌 ...

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1020 - 1026): More Disturbances at the Month - End, CDs May Continue to Fluctuate at a Relatively High Level [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tax payments and new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange may increase capital disturbances. As the transition period of the "interest rate adjustment safeguard clause" approaches the end of November and the maturity scale of CDs is relatively large, CD issuance may still be in demand and remain in a high - level oscillation state in the short term. From a pricing perspective, CDs may continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, with the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.7%, and the price increase pressure above 1.7% being controllable, allowing for opportunistic layout [2][50] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Increases, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (October 20 - 26), the CD issuance scale was 96.324 billion yuan, and the net financing was 34.535 billion yuan (compared to 22.27 billion yuan from October 13 - 19). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 19%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 36% to 43%. In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 19% to 28%, and the weighted issuance term of CDs rose to 7.08 months (previously 6.07 months). Next week (October 27 - November 2), the maturity scale will increase to 56.431 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocation Forces, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Rises - In the secondary - market allocation, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces, with weekly net purchases of 52.116 billion yuan and 58.277 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 102.508 billion yuan to 91.151 billion yuan. In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 87%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 84% to 85%, that of joint - stock banks increased from 83% to 86%, and that of state - owned banks decreased from 85% to 84% [2][15] Valuation: CDs See a Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market and Slight Yield Fluctuations in the Secondary Market - In the primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.68%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 6 - month and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, and the 3 - month variety increased by 2bp. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 18% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 7.76BP to 10.35BP, at around the 14% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 8.27BP to 6.31BP, close to the 9% quantile. In the secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, and the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, reaching the 8% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs rose to the 20% historical quantile [2][21][31] Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - In terms of asset comparison, the spread between medium - and short - term notes and CDs continued to narrow. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15DMA of DR007 widened from 18.44BP to 23.33BP; the spread with the 15DMA of R007 widened from 9.99BP to 16.68BP; the 1 - year Treasury yield increased by 2.82bp, and the spread between CDs and Treasuries narrowed from 22.29BP to 20.34BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%; the spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.13BP to 3.30BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%; in addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 5.91BP to 3.02BP, with the quantile dropping to 9% [2][38]

哪些信用债更加抗跌 ——信用策略周报 一、上周资金面仍然偏紧，长端信用债表现优于短端 证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 2 月 18 日 由于资金面偏紧、社融数据超预期等因素，上周信用债收益率跟随利率债整体上 行，短端高评级收益率上行幅度较大，信用债收益率曲线趋于平坦化。上周信用 利差大多被动收窄，中长久期中低评级信用债利差压缩幅度大于短久期，3 年期 及以上 AA+级及以下中短票信用利差收窄幅度为 4-8bp，1 年期各评级中短票利 差全周累计收窄 2-4bp。分品种来看，中长久期低评级以及超长久期城投债的信 用利差收窄幅度较大；短久期中高评级二永债利差走阔幅度较大。 2）金融债：上周除短久期外，其他期限二永债信用利差普遍被动收窄，3 年期 中低评级二永债利差收窄幅度较大，约为 4bp。短久期中高评级二永债利差走阔 幅度较大，1 年期 AA+级及以上二永债信用利差的走阔幅度为 2-5bp。此外 3-7 年期各评级券商次级债利差收窄幅度同样较大，为 4-8bp。 二、近期债市调整后，短久期信用债性价比有所提升 机构行为方面，上周基金、其他产品类（包含企业年金、社保基金、养老基金等）、 理财是信用债 ...