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流动性打分周报:短久期中高评级城投债流动性下降-20250813
China Post Securities· 2025-08-13 10:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - and medium - term, medium - to high - rated bond issues in the urban investment bond and industrial bond sectors have seen a decline in liquidity. [2][9][18] - In terms of yield, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds in both urban investment and industrial bonds are mainly decreasing, with the decline ranging from 2 - 6bp, and some sub - items showing larger declines. [11][20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - **Liquidity**: Short - term, medium - to high - rated high - grade liquid bond issues have decreased. Regionally, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues in Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing remained stable, while those in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased. In terms of maturity, the number of 1 - 2 - year high - grade liquid bond issues increased, while those within 1 year and over 5 years decreased, especially within 1 year. In terms of implicit ratings, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA - increased, while those with ratings of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA(2) decreased. [9] - **Yield**: The yields of high - grade liquid urban investment bonds are mainly decreasing, with the decline concentrated at 2 - 5bp. [11] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Increase**: The main body levels are mainly AA + and AA, concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Shanghai, and mainly involve industries such as building decoration. [12] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Decrease**: The main body levels are mainly AA, and the regional distribution is mainly in Henan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, etc. The top 20 entities are mainly in building decoration and comprehensive industries. [12] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - **Liquidity**: Medium - and short - term, medium - to high - rated high - grade liquid bond issues have decreased. By industry, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues in transportation and coal increased, while those in real estate and public utilities remained stable, and those in steel decreased. In terms of maturity, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues increased overall, with the number within 1 year, 2 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years, and over 5 years remaining stable, and the 1 - 2 - year period decreasing. In terms of implicit ratings, the number of high - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA increased, the number with a rating of AAA - remained stable, and those with ratings of AAA +, AAA, and AA + decreased. [18] - **Yield**: The yields of high - grade liquid bond issues are mainly decreasing, with the decline concentrated at 2 - 6bp. Some sub - items have larger declines, such as an 18bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues in the real estate sector, an 8bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues within 1 year, and an 11bp decline in the A - grade liquid bond issues with an implicit rating of AA +. [20] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Increase**: The industries of the top 20 entities are mainly transportation, pharmaceutical biology, building decoration, etc., and the main body levels are mainly AAA and AA +. The industries of the top 20 bonds are mainly public utilities, transportation, and commercial retail. [21] - **Top 20 in Liquidity Score Decrease**: The top 20 entities are mainly in public utilities, real estate, building decoration, transportation, machinery and equipment, etc., and the main body levels are mainly AAA and AA +. The industries of the top 20 bonds are mainly transportation, real estate, and public utilities. [21]
信用周观察系列:长信用,还有空间
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-23 02:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]
点评报告:票息为盾,提前“卡位”利差压缩行情
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-12 02:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].