以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 至于这波周期红利，我心中的逻辑有三个点，第一个是均值回归逻辑，第二个是日历效应逻辑，第三个也是最本质的一个，就是反内卷逻 辑。 从均值回顾的视角，两周前，我从量化的角度做了一个测算，把银行、电力等类债红利的相关行业合并编成一个指数，再把钢铁、煤炭等 周期红利的相关行业合并编成一个指数，然后用两者的比价来刻画两者之间的相对强弱，发现再两周前，类债红利与周期红利的比价那么 目前，两者之间的比价又一次到达了历史90%分位数以上，于是从这个角度看，今年下半年红利内部更强的发力点在于周期红利。 从日历效应的视角，2016年以来的三季度，钢铁、煤炭、石油石化的胜率高达78%，且各年份的平均收益率分别达到了10.17%、5.19% 和4.71%，在四个季度里排名第一，如果进一步看月份，这背后的常规逻辑是基于旺季的逻辑，比如受到高温天气的影响，国内进入用电 高峰，煤炭、石油石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a three-month high of $105,977.82, driven by macro liquidity expectations and technological advancements in decentralized exchanges, particularly XBIT's unique features [1][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price surged over 6% in the last four hours, with trading volume increasing significantly, indicating heightened market sentiment [1]. - The recent price movement followed a "breakout-pullback-rebound" pattern, with the closing price above the previous resistance level of $99,222, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2]. Technological Innovations - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform showcased a 230% increase in large transactions as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, without the liquidity crises often seen in traditional exchanges [4]. - The platform's dynamic liquidity pool mechanism ensures optimal transaction prices even during extreme market conditions [4]. - XBIT's three core advantages include military-grade security through zero-knowledge proof technology, cross-chain asset interoperability, and a user-friendly design that simplifies complex trading operations [4]. Trading Strategies - Despite bullish momentum, significant historical resistance exists around $105,371, which could pose a risk of short-term price corrections [6]. - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive buying at support levels and cautious shorting if prices face resistance at higher levels [6]. Decentralized Exchange Growth - The trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) surpassed 35% for the first time, with XBIT emerging as a key player due to its innovative on-chain order book model [6]. - XBIT's "trade-to-mine" model has led to a 400% increase in its token value, creating a positive feedback loop for users [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term support for Bitcoin is expected from macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential ETF inflows, with a price target of $120,000 if resistance levels are broken [9]. - The emergence of advanced DEX platforms like XBIT is reshaping the cryptocurrency trading landscape, emphasizing the importance of security, transparency, and efficiency for investors [9].