期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围降温，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 向上驱动不足，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 11 月 21 ...

期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期，国内动力煤价格短暂企稳后再次走强，截至 11 月 6 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 799 元/吨，周环比上涨 31 元。从供应端来看，11 月首周，主产区煤矿生产整体稳定，供应较去 年同期依然偏低，11 月安全生产巡察组入驻后，动力煤供应恢复预计仍有一定压力。进口方面， 海关总署最新数据显示，10 月我国进口煤及褐煤 4173.7 万吨，较上月减少 426.6 万吨。需求方 面，截至 10 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "decline", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that the upward driving force is weak, and coking coal will oscillate weakly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that there are both long and short factors, and coke will oscillate within a range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of October 10, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 752,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, 10 road ports such as Erenhot and Ganqimaodu between China and Mongolia were closed for 7 days and gradually resumed after the festival. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. After the holiday, the coking coal inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly. As of the week of October 10, the coal inventory of independent coking plants was 9.5906 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 786,500 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8113 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,300 tons. Due to insufficient fundamental support and the reappearance of US tariff pressure, coking coal futures are expected to operate weakly and oscillate in the short term [5]. Coke (J) - According to Mysteel statistics, as of the week of October 10, the total daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4154 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons, and the profit rate of steel mills was 56.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. Coke's fundamental upward driving force is insufficient, and there is short - term policy risk as Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. Coke futures are expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term view is "interval oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slightly upward trend", with an overall reference view of "oscillation" [1]. - Jiao Coal: Due to the interplay of multiple and bearish factors, it is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the short - term, and the key lies in the long - term and obvious impact of anti - involution rectification on Jiao Coal supply [1][5]. - Coke: After the sixth round of price increase was implemented, the spot market remains optimistic. With the supply of coking coal at the cost end being disturbed, it is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain interval oscillation in the near future [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1190.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.48%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1167 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution policies in the coal industry are being implemented one after another. As the futures price returns to a high level, market games increase. The short - term trend is interval oscillation [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.23% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented this week, and the optimistic atmosphere in the spot market continues. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable recently, and the supply of coking coal at the cost end is disturbed. The futures price has pulled back at the 1750 yuan/ton level. It is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the near future [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will continue to strengthen this summer as multiple positive factors, including the peak season and anti - involution policies, create a resonance driving the coal price up [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - As of August 7, 2025, the quoted price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase was larger than the previous week. Since the low point in late June, the cumulative increase in the FOB price of 5500K at the port has reached 64 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic thermal coal supply has been stable. The peak season for thermal coal demand has shown good performance. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker is significantly higher than the same period last year. The anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry has boosted market sentiment. The coal market atmosphere at mine mouths and ports remains active, with continuous release of downstream power plant replenishment demand and high enthusiasm among traders for haulage [5]. Inventory - As of August 7, according to iFind statistics, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2481.9 million tons, basically flat week - on - week and slightly 22.4 million tons lower than the same period last year. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834.4 million tons from the inventory peak in May, effectively reducing the inventory in the intermediate links and supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 865.0 元/吨，周环比持平，折合期货 仓单成本约 834 元/吨。钢联资讯显示，长治沁源前期受安监停产的煤矿陆续复产，焦煤供应担 忧再现，驱动期货回调。上周，我们提示了安全月结束后，焦煤产量恢复的利空风险。当前供 应端是市场博弈的焦点之一，后续也需要继续跟踪主产区实际生产情况。整体来看，焦煤需求 暂稳运行，而供应端扰动再现，期货价格向下调整，预计短期内焦煤主力合约暂维持区间震荡 运行，密切关注山西煤矿 7 月产量情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力再现，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and mid - term trends of both coking coal and coke futures are expected to be in a sideways pattern, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend, and both are likely to trade in a low - level range - bound manner [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has shrunk due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressure, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, which has alleviated the pessimistic supply outlook. Geopolitical events have also improved market sentiment, driving the main coking coal futures contract to stop falling and rebound. However, the long - term supply glut situation has not been completely reversed, and there is still a possibility of increased production after the safety month, so there is insufficient driving force for a significant increase in coal prices [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1401 yuan/ton [6]. - **Core Logic**: As positive factors accumulate, the previously pessimistic market sentiment has changed, some short positions have taken profits and left the market, and the game between long and short positions has intensified, leading to low - level wide - range fluctuations in coke futures. Looking ahead, although coking coal supply has shrunk in June, production may recover after the safety month, and the long - term export pressure on ferrous metal terminals remains, so the coke futures are expected to continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation in June [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空博弈，焦煤阶段性调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 上下游压力仍存，焦炭期货低位 运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条 ...