1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, focus on the new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, and the market may start to pay attention to medium - and long - term marginal changes in the next five years. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are also worth tracking [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold. Be cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the fourth - quarter medium - term, hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds and watch for buying opportunities in equity assets after the turmoil [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. With crowded funds in small - cap stocks, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the risk of insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Affected by factors such as policy, fundamental repair, and tariffs, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, with the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and increased risks to the Fed's independence, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the load is under pressure and there is a lack of upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel Products**: Poor demand and policy disturbances. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and iron - water production need to be monitored [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but macro disturbances are increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the market is temporarily stable. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment need to be watched [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply decreased during the holiday, and downstream replenishment slowed down. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment should be monitored [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and cost support is strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as raw material costs and steel procurement need to be considered [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but supply and demand are loose, and prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as cost prices and foreign quotes should be watched [7]. - **Glass**: Supply concerns have eased, and intermediate inventories are high. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and spot production and sales need to be monitored [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Production has slightly decreased, and inventories are continuously being transferred. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and soda - ash inventories should be watched [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices continue to be strong. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement, and factors such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, and Fed policies need to be monitored [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as ore resumption and electrolytic - aluminum resumption need to be watched [7]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro sentiment, aluminum prices are volatile and strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and supply disturbances need to be monitored [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has returned to accumulation, and zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and zinc - ore supply need to be watched [7]. - **Lead**: With supply - side disturbances and slow battery exports, lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side disturbances and battery exports need to be monitored [7]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and RKAB quota progress is fluctuating. Nickel prices are widely volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies need to be watched [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are volatile and rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as Indonesian policies and demand growth need to be monitored [7]. - **Tin**: Supply disturbances continue, and tin prices are volatile at high levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement need to be watched [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The restart rhythm of coal and northwest production is fluctuating, and industrial - silicon prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side over - reduction and photovoltaic installation need to be monitored [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expectation of production suspension has ended, and lithium - carbonate prices are under pressure and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and supply disturbances need to be watched [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations need to be monitored [8]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in excess, and the low - valuation situation is difficult to change. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as crude - oil and overseas propane costs need to be watched [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are continuously falling, and asphalt futures prices are also falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a downward movement, and factors such as sanctions and supply disturbances need to be monitored [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of increased production and geopolitical cooling, high - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as geopolitics and crude - oil prices need to be watched [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and crude - oil prices need to be monitored [8]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins but with Iranian disturbances still existing, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between methanol and olefins. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there are insufficient positive factors, and the short - term weakness continues. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as the improvement of Sino - Indian relations and export expectations need to be monitored [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamentals have weak support and the macro sentiment is pessimistic, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions need to be watched [8]. - **PX**: Cost collapse drags down the valuation of chemical products. In a situation where supply and demand are both strong, the benefits are mainly volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and PTA device restarts need to be monitored [8]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but costs and macro sentiment have a significant drag, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and the peak - season performance need to be watched [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Costs drag down the absolute price, but the processing fee remains stable under stable supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand need to be monitored [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw - material cost support is weak, and the low - level speculative replenishment demand supports the bottle - chip processing - fee profit. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and terminal demand need to be watched [8]. - **Propylene**: Cost decline and the resurgence of tariff games lead to a weak and volatile PL. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **PP**: The raw - material end collapses and there are tariff disturbances, so PP prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be watched [8]. - **Plastic**: Oil prices have significantly declined, and plastic prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **Styrene**: Inventory pressure is still high, and styrene prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **PVC**: There is still fundamental pressure, and PVC prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as expectations, costs, and supply need to be monitored [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price can be stopped for profit at low levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as market sentiment, production start - up, and demand need to be watched [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data need to be monitored [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to be volatile at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade wars need to be watched [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The pressure of selling new grain is coming, and the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as demand, macro factors, and weather need to be monitored [8]. - **Pig**: The planned October slaughter volume is increasing, and pig prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies need to be watched [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Although the negative factors have not been realized, the market sentiment remains weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro changes need to be monitored [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil need to be watched [8]. - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down. Pay attention to the purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and inventory need to be monitored [8]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and foreign sugar prices are weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as imports and Brazilian production need to be watched [8]. - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may cause intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes need to be monitored [8]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up need to be watched [8].

Group 1: Domestic Consumption and Travel Market - During the double holiday period, the domestic consumption and travel market showed strong recovery momentum, with an average daily cross-regional flow of 304 million people, up 6.3% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [1] - Self-driving travel dominated, with an average daily flow of over 240 million small passenger cars on highways, accounting for about 80% of total travel [1] - The increase in electric vehicle travel significantly boosted the payment amount for charging stations, which rose by over 40% year-on-year [1] - Railway and civil aviation passenger volumes steadily recovered, with the "high-speed rail + airplane" travel model gaining popularity [1] - Outbound tourism saw a notable rebound, with an average of over 2 million inbound and outbound travelers per day during the holiday, up 7% year-on-year [1] - New trends in destination choices emerged, such as "taste tours" focusing on food and "small town tours" emphasizing cost-effectiveness, indicating strong consumption potential in lower-tier markets [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals continued to lead the commodity market rebound, while the agricultural products sector showed weaker recovery [2] - Gold, supported by fundamentals and macro disturbances, has seen a strategic shift in central bank purchasing behavior, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching approximately 2303.5 tons by the end of September [2] - The ongoing growth in official demand is positioning gold as a "timeless asset," reflecting concerns over the U.S. dollar credit system and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Silver has strengthened relative to gold due to expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with its dual role as a financial and industrial asset providing greater elasticity [3] - In the industrial metals sector, the copper market is undergoing a fundamental shift due to rising resource nationalism, impacting supply stability and costs [4] - Supply growth for copper is expected to decline from 1.8% to below 1.5% in the next 2-3 years, while demand from electric vehicles and renewable energy is projected to maintain a growth rate of 2.2%-2.5% [5] - The oil market is facing a different scenario, with OPEC+ implementing a gradual production increase strategy, potentially leading to a surplus of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day by 2026 [5]