12月15日，在岸与离岸人民币汇率双双升破7.05关口，创下近14个月以来新高。 截至北京时间15点30分，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至7.047，为2024年10月9日以来首次升破 7.05关口。 在离岸市场上，更能反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币兑美元汇率则在北京时间15点30分左右升至 7.05，同样创下自2024年10月初以来的新高。 离岸人民币队美元汇率破7.05关口谷歌财经 另据外汇交易中心网站消息，12月15日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0656元，较上个交易日调贬18个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，人民币走势偏强会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海外资金流入 国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。他认为短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，后续要重点 关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。 在岸人民币兑美元汇率最高升至7.047新浪财经 展望后续，外资机构和人士普遍认为，人民币或将持续升值，不过节奏略有分化。 澳新银行驻新加坡亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh预计，人民币兑美元汇率将在2026年保 ...

随着美元指数连续走弱，包括人民币在内的非美货币持续走强。 11月27日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至7.0738，较前一交易日高点进一步走强，连续三个交易 日创下去年10月中旬以来的新高。 更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率在前一交易日创下一年多新高后11月27日进一步走 强，盘中最高升至7.06527。 在创下新高后，午后，人民币对美元汇率在在岸和离岸市场双双小幅走弱，跌破7.08。 兴业研究指出，人民币兑美元短线升破7.10，11月27日盘中最低触达7.0738，向中间价靠拢，昨日中间 价受股市反弹提振，开在7.08以下。短线关注股汇联动的持续性，突破7.10后下一关键支撑为7.05。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青11月27日表示，人民币走势偏强，会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海 外资金流入国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。综合各类影响因素，预计短期内人民币还会处 于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和 节奏。其中，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美 元指数上行空间有限；不过，年初以来美元跌 ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [5]. - The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in some sectors of the aluminum processing industry, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [34]. - The profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, with limited growth in production and low inventory providing support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data shows strong resilience, with the manufacturing PMI in August reaching the highest level since May 2022. The Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of tariffs on inflation are the focus of the market. The domestic economy is relatively stable, and the implementation of stable - growth policies continues [9][11][15]. - The domestic aluminum market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policies, and international economic situation. The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in demand, but the overall recovery is still weak [34]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The expected improvement in demand in the US manufacturing industry and the implementation of domestic stable - growth policies are expected to boost aluminum consumption. The low inventory of electrolytic aluminum also provides support for prices [9][15][31]. - **Bearish factors**: The expected oversupply of alumina, the weak downstream demand in the off - season, and the potential impact of the US steel and aluminum tariff increase on market sentiment [24][37][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: In 2025, from January to July, the domestic aluminum ore production increased year - on - year. The import volume of bauxite from Guinea has been at a high level, but the rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment volume. The supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has limited growth space [19][23][25]. - **Downstream demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly this week. The output of aluminum products in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. The automobile industry maintained high prosperity, while the real estate market continued to decline [34][37][41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of LME aluminum remained stable, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased this week. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [47][50][61]. - **Price**: The domestic spot aluminum price changed from flat to premium, and the LME aluminum discount narrowed [52]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [66].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Report Institution: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a complex situation with both supply - side and demand - side factors at play. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. - There is still room for debate on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary - The report analyzes the copper market from multiple aspects including macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. It concludes that short - term copper prices will remain volatile with a support level at 78,000 [5][48]. 02 Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - Domestic TC is low and stable, and the accumulation of social inventories is limited [7]. - The continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, such as consumption loan subsidies and investment in special bonds, is expected to boost copper demand [12][14]. Bearish Factors - The US PPI data shows that inflation may be more persistent, which slightly reduces the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates [9]. 03 Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US inflation data shows that in July, CPI was lower than expected while core CPI was pulled up by commodities. The PPI soared both year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations [9]. - China's domestic growth - stabilizing policies continue to be implemented, including consumer loan subsidies and investment in special bonds [14]. Supply - side Data - China's copper ore imports in July remained stable. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [15][16]. - The tightness at the mine end continues. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee remains low and stable. Overseas supply - side disturbances have increased slightly, but some situations have subsided [18][19]. - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21][22]. - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand increased, while that from the US decreased significantly [24][25]. Demand - side Data - The power sector is growing rapidly. As of the end of June, the country's cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [31][32]. - The demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators such as construction area and new - start area also declined [33][34]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. In July, the output of new energy vehicles was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 8.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.9%. The output of automobiles in July was 2.51 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, and the cumulative output from January to July was 18.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [36][38]. - The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% [39][41]. Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various regions have increased. LME copper inventories have slowed down in the rate of accumulation, SHFE copper inventories have slightly increased, COMEX inventories have continued to accumulate, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventories have also increased slightly [42][43]. Price Data - The premium of domestic copper spot has widened, and the premium or discount of foreign copper has also widened. On August 14, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 170 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 88.75 US dollars/ton [45]. 04后市研判 - Short - term copper prices will continue to fluctuate, with a support level at 78,000 [48].