商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 06 日 铜：情绪悲观，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,980 | -3.97% | 101130 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,855 | -1.42% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 587,802 | 115,881 | 599,957 | -17,292 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 30,234 | 3,912 | 324,000 | -8,112 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 160,679 | 907 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 180,575 | 1,925 | 11.05% | -1.78 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China plans to include copper concentrate in the national reserve, leading to a general rebound in metal prices. The A - share market rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term and remain positive in the long term [2][3]. - Precious metals rebounded due to bargain - hunting. However, it is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust until volatility cools [4][5]. - Copper prices rebounded significantly because of China's plan to increase copper reserves. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to rebound [6][7]. - Aluminum prices' adjustment slowed after risk sentiment was released. The market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level due to the co - existence of bullish and bearish factors [10]. - Cast aluminum is expected to follow the cost and oscillate as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. - Zinc prices had a weak rebound due to positive news, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. - Lead prices are expected to stabilize and weakly correct following the non - ferrous sector [13]. - Tin prices had a weak rebound due to the boost of capacity control signals, but the fundamental support is weakening [14]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival [15]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply is strong and demand is weak [16][17]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate as the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival [18]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate as the precipitation in Argentina has improved and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust as the production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January [21][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump signed a temporary spending agreement, ending the partial shutdown. The Fed's officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose. The Nasdaq fell sharply. Gold and copper prices rebounded, and oil prices rose due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rebounded on Tuesday, with growth - style small - cap stocks leading the gains. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrate in the national reserve [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals rebounded significantly. Some investors bought on dips, and domestic consumers "bottom - fished" physical metals. The adjustment of precious metal prices is a correction of market sentiment. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over, and prices are expected to continue to adjust [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper rebounded from a low level. China plans to increase strategic copper reserves. Geopolitical risks and the weak dollar have pushed up the metal's valuation. Overseas mines'复产 is not smooth, non - US inventories are low, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed. Copper prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and LME aluminum rose. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The risk sentiment was released, and the market repaired the previous over - reaction. The fundamentals are weak, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures contract rose slightly. The social inventory accumulation slowed, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased. The market is in a game between the expected production cuts during the Spring Festival and the new capacity and cost - reduction pressure after the Spring Festival. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures contract fell. Cast aluminum follows the cost and oscillates as it is in a seasonal off - season with no prominent fundamental contradictions [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc stabilized and oscillated. The US government's shutdown concern decreased, and the Fed's dovish statement alleviated market pessimism. The downstream buying decreased, and the domestic market is in the Spring Festival inventory accumulation cycle. Zinc prices had a weak rebound, but it is hard to say that the adjustment is over [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally. The LME inventory increased, and domestic downstream enterprises are on holiday. The inventory is expected to increase, which suppresses lead prices. However, the loss of secondary lead smelters has expanded, and the price is expected to stabilize and weakly correct [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - On Tuesday, the tin futures contract had a weak rebound. The market's selling pressure was repaired due to the capacity control signal. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has recovered. Tin prices are expected to have a weak rebound and repair [14]. 3.1.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading volume decreased. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - policies [15]. 3.1.11 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory increased, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.1.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The supply is tightening due to environmental protection policies and coal mine holidays, and the demand is weak as steel mills are on holiday. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.1.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell. The precipitation in Argentina has improved, and the domestic soybean purchase plan is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate [19][20]. 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures fell slightly. The production in Malaysia decreased, exports increased, and India's imports surged in January. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust [21][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, in both domestic and international markets [24]. 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other products from February 2 to February 3 [25][28][30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries were provided in the report. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, presenting the current trends and future outlooks for each commodity based on their respective fundamentals, market news, and macro - economic factors. It provides insights into the potential investment opportunities and risks in the commodity futures market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is releasing risks, and silver is experiencing a high - level decline. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [2][5]. - **Copper**: Due to raw - material disturbances, copper prices are strengthening. Its trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is operating weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Increasing inventory is pressuring lead prices. Its trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Tin has stopped falling and is on the rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][17]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is experiencing a slight rebound, alumina is oscillating within a range, and casting aluminum alloy is following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 1, alumina's is 0, and the alloy's is 1 [2][21]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium's price may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, with fundamentals and speculative positions in a game. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron is expected to support the lower price limit. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][30]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures market is showing strength. Its trend strength is 0 [2][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market - sentiment changes; for polysilicon, the situation of the Beijing meeting should be monitored. Their trend strengths are both 1 [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a game between expectations and reality, and ore prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Its trend strength is 0 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are experiencing wide - range oscillations. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][46]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron is weakly oscillating due to cost - expectation loosening, and manganese silicon is weakly oscillating due to commodity - sentiment resonance. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][50]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are oscillating at high levels. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][54]. - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand are in a weak balance, and coal prices before the holiday are mainly stable [2][58]. - **Log**: Log prices are slightly rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][60]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weak monthly spread; PTA is in a high - level oscillating market; MEG should be operated within a range. Their trend strengths are all 1 [2][64]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber is oscillating strongly, and synthetic rubber is oscillating. Rubber's trend strength is 1, and synthetic rubber's is 0 [2][73][76]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has a narrowing import volume, limited offers, and weakening oil - price support, with a trend strength of - 1. PP has significant cost disturbances, and its profit may be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][79][81]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a weak reality but strong expectations. Its trend strength is 0 [2][84]. - **Pulp**: Pulp is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][88]. - **Glass**: The price of glass raw sheets is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [2][93]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is oscillating with support. Its trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Urea**: Urea is oscillating in the short term. Its trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Styrene**: Styrene is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][104]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market for soda ash has little change. Its trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitical disturbances with a downward fundamental drive; propylene's upward drive is weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][111]. - **PVC**: PVC's fundamentals have not significantly improved. Its trend strength is 0 [2][122]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil rebounded at night, and its short - term weakness has eased; low - sulfur fuel oil slightly followed the rise, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has shrunk to a historical low. Their trend strengths are both 1 [2][127]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical negotiations and the resumption progress of shipping companies. Its trend strength is 0 [2][129]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Both are mainly oscillating in the short term after releasing emotional risks. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Hold short positions and reverse - spread positions. Its trend strength is - 1 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is oscillating at a high level due to improved macro - sentiment, and soybean oil is boosted by the implementation of the US bio - diesel policy. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][155]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Soybean meal may rebound and oscillate due to the impact of the bio - diesel policy and a small increase in US soybeans. After the release of the No. 1 Central Document, the market sentiment for soybean No. 1 is stable. Soybean meal's trend strength is 1, and soybean No. 1's is 0 [2][162]. - **Corn**: The decline in corn prices is limited. Its trend strength is 0 [2][165]. - **Sugar**: Sugar is consolidating within a range. Its trend strength is 0 [2][168]. - **Cotton**: Cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Its trend strength is 1 [2][173]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices in the spot market are weakening. Its trend strength is - 1 [2][179]. - **Hogs**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the pressure on spot prices is increasing. Its trend strength is - 2 [2][182]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts are weakly oscillating. Its trend strength is 0 [2][187].

Core Viewpoint - Food and energy security are crucial foundations of national security, with significant progress made in ensuring these areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including a record grain production and high self-sufficiency rates in staple foods and energy [1][2][5]. Food Security - Grain production has achieved "21 consecutive years of abundance," with per capita grain availability reaching 500 kg, surpassing the international safety line of 400 kg [2]. - The comprehensive production capacity of grain has been enhanced through strategies like "storing grain in the ground and technology," with over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland established [2]. - Structural adjustments in grain planting have been made to ensure basic self-sufficiency in grains, with corn and soybean production increasing to alleviate reliance on imports [3]. Supply Chain Resilience - The resilience of the grain circulation supply chain has improved, with over 700 million tons of grain storage capacity established nationwide [4]. - The integration of quality grain projects has led to an increase in the supply rate of high-quality grain and oil products, meeting the upgraded consumption needs of the population [4]. Energy Security - Energy security has been strengthened, with primary energy production continuing to rise and maintaining an energy self-sufficiency rate above 80% [5]. - The total oil and gas production reached a historic high of over 400 million tons of oil equivalent, with significant contributions from offshore and shale oil and gas developments [6]. - The renewable energy sector has seen substantial growth, with installed capacity for renewable energy generation reaching 2.017 billion kilowatts, a 58% increase year-on-year [7]. Emergency Preparedness - The national reserve system has been enhanced, with nearly 7,000 grain emergency processing enterprises and a daily processing capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons [8]. - The establishment of a comprehensive emergency supply network has improved the efficiency of disaster response and resource allocation [9].