从今年一季度情况看，Wind数据显示，截至1月8日，各地披露一季度计划发行的地方债券总规模约 20862亿元，超过2万亿元关口。从地区看，四川、山东、云南、湖南等7个地方一季度计划发行规模超 过1000亿元，其中四川计划发行1887亿元、山东计划发行1724.81亿元、云南计划发行1451.36亿元，位 列前三位。 "今年是'十五五'开局之年，各地均持续加力政府投资，有效发挥更加积极的财政政策作用，加快地方 政府债券发行进度，有力推进'两重''两新'和新兴产业布局。"吉林省财政科学研究所研究员张依群在接 受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 "一季度各地拟发行地方债券超2万亿元，是今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发力的具体体现。"陕西巨丰 投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣也对记者分析，当前计划发行规模处于历年同期较高水平， 且实际发行规模有望进一步增加，能为年初经济稳定运行提供有力支撑。从地区分布看，四川、山东等 经济大省计划发行规模居前，有望发挥经济大省挑大梁的作用。 据中国债券信息网信息，1月8日，宁波发行一批地方债券，包括10亿元一般债券以及243.72亿元专项债 券。 郭一鸣分析，从债券类型看，新增专项债券 ...

2026年地方政府债券发行也已经启动。 2025年地方政府债券发行已收官，发债规模创下历史新高。 根据中诚信国际研究院数据，2025年全年全国发行地方政府债券约10.3万亿元，同比增长5.2%。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞告诉第一财经，这是年度地方政府债券发行规模首次突破10万亿元。2025年地方政府债券发行呈 现多个亮点，比如，去年4.6万亿元新增专项债券使用范围进一步拓宽，对房地产相关项目的支持力度明显加大，以稳定楼市 等。去年，超10万亿地方政府债券拉动投资，惠民生、补短板，推动隐性债务风险化解，从而稳住经济大盘。 "为推动今年经济社会平稳运行，预计2026年地方政府债券发行规模会继续超过10万亿元，并且适度加快发债进度，推动项目尽 早开工建设，发挥债券稳投资、补短板等效应。"中央财经大学教授温来成告诉第一财经。 10万亿资金用在哪 为了稳投资、稳楼市和支持地方政府化解隐性债务，2025年初国家将地方政府新增债券限额提高至5.2万亿元，并在四季度又额 外增加0.5万亿元地方政府债券发行额度。中央此前安排的10万亿元隐性债务置换计划持续落地，也使得再融资债券发行规模维 持高位。 中诚信国际研究院数据显示， ...

证券时报记者 孙璐璐 贺觉渊 秦燕玲 张达 程丹 韩忠楠 江聃 郭博昊 在新的一年来临之际，证券时报推出"2026宏观经济十大看点"，探寻新的一年宏观政策着 力点。 1.财政赤字和政府债券 发行规模有望提升 2026年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，预示着财政将保持较大支持强度。为支持"十 五五"开局之年各项经济工作顺利开展，新一年的财政赤字规模与新增政府债务规模有必要提 高。 2.货币政策适度宽松 促进物价合理回升 在"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"这一目标牵引下，2026年 我国货币政策仍将保持流动性充裕。 当前居民消费价格指数（CPI）低位运行，市场普遍预计2026年政府工作报告有望将CPI涨幅 目标设定在2%左右，这个数值更加契合预期管理的引导作用和现有价格水平的变化趋势，这 也意味着，在物价水平达到目标值之前，我国货币政策都有望保持适度宽松的基调。 在具体操作上，2026年，降准降息等传统货币政策操作依然有空间，但落地的时机和节奏预 计将更突出灵活性，以保持社会融资成本低位运行。各类结构性货币政策操作有望发挥更大 作用，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融 ...

编者按：2026年是"十五五"开局之年，在新一轮五年规划的首年开好局、起好步，关乎未来五年的发展 全局。回望"十四五"，我国发展历程极不寻常、极不平凡，站在新起点，做好全年的经济工作，要坚持 稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经 济治理效能。 在新的一年来临之际，证券时报推出"2026宏观经济十大看点"，探寻新的一年宏观政策着力点。 1.财政赤字和政府债券 发行规模有望提升 2026年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，预示着财政将保持较大支持强度。为支持"十五五"开局之 年各项经济工作顺利开展，新一年的财政赤字规模与新增政府债务规模有必要提高。 新的一年，我国财政收支紧平衡压力不减，财政刚性支出规模持续提升，这都要求财政赤字规模进一步 提高。目前，市场机构普遍看好财政赤字率不低于2025年4%的水平、财政赤字规模将不低于4.06万亿 元。在中国经济运行长期向好的态势下，由于作为分母的国内生产总值（GDP）不断扩大，2026年赤字 率水平即使维持不变，实际赤字规模仍将增长。 为推动投资止跌回稳，发挥政府投资带动作用的新增专项债券与超长期特别国债，有必要在新的 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong vitality and resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2025, with significant achievements in high-quality development and proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] Fiscal Performance - China's fiscal operations in the first half of 2025 were generally stable, with good budget execution. The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, doubling the funding compared to 2024 [2] - A total of 1,620 billion yuan of these special bonds has been pre-allocated, driving sales exceeding 16 trillion yuan and contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the full year of 2024 [2] - The central government issued 5,550 billion yuan in special bonds in the first half of 2025, with a new special bond limit of 4.4 trillion yuan fully allocated to local governments [2] Support for Innovation and Employment - The central budget for basic research increased by 12.1% compared to the previous year, with 6 billion yuan allocated to support local technological development [3] - Over 2,200 small and medium-sized enterprises in technology innovation received approximately 90 billion yuan in loans through a special guarantee plan [3] - Employment support funds of 66.74 billion yuan were allocated to assist local implementation of social insurance and vocational training subsidies [3] Future Fiscal Policy Directions - Future fiscal policies will focus on six areas: effectively utilizing proactive fiscal policies, supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new development momentum, improving living standards, preventing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to ensure efficient budget execution and improve the effectiveness of fund usage while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors [4] Employment and Trade Stability - The Ministry of Finance plans to intensify employment stabilization policies, support public employment services, vocational training, and job retention efforts [4] - There will be a focus on helping enterprises stabilize orders, transition to domestic sales, and expand markets, addressing practical challenges faced by businesses [4]

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a total issuance of approximately 91,062 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in issuance from July onwards, culminating in approximately 5,600 billion yuan in October, slightly above January's issuance [3][5]. - Of the 91,062 billion yuan borrowed, around 60% was allocated to repay old debts, while approximately 40% was directed towards major project construction [5][7]. - The new local government bonds issued included about 47,000 billion yuan in new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 44,000 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year), primarily aimed at repaying existing debts [5][7]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Funding - A total of approximately 12,500 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, specifically for resolving local government hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises, indicating a focus on debt repayment [7][8]. - The majority of new special bonds were utilized for significant public projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [8]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - As of September 2025, the total local government debt stood at 536,995 billion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are generally manageable [9]. - In the first three quarters of the year, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds, demonstrating the ability to meet debt obligations [9].

Group 1 - The central government has set a new local government special bond limit of 39 billion yuan for this year, an increase of 10 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting local governments in addressing key areas and filling gaps [1] - As of April 18, 2023, a total of 170 new special bonds have been issued by various regions, amounting to approximately 654.37 billion yuan, with the first quarter alone accounting for 634.12 billion yuan [1] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter to meet project funding needs and support economic growth and investment plans [2] Group 2 - The issuance, allocation, and utilization of special bonds in China have shown significant achievements, establishing a long-term mechanism for issuance, distribution, project evaluation, risk warning, and information disclosure [2] - The characteristics of special bond issuance in the second quarter are expected to include a stronger emphasis on the applicability of project lists, continuous expansion of issuance scale, and a focus on matching the physical workload generated by the bonds with their effectiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - Local government bond issuance has reached a record high in the first seven months of the year, with a total of 6.7 trillion yuan, primarily aimed at refinancing old debts and funding major projects [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Purpose - In the first seven months, approximately 3.4 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued, marking a 65% year-on-year increase, while new bonds totaled about 3.3 trillion yuan, up approximately 55% [1][2]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, with nearly half directed towards major project construction [1]. - The issuance of special bonds has been significant, with about 2.8 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 4.4 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Impact - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly easing repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - Special new bonds, totaling approximately 755 billion yuan, are specifically aimed at resolving hidden debt issues and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Of the nearly 2 trillion yuan allocated for project construction from new special bonds, approximately 26.37% is directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve projects [8]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 260 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [8]. Group 4: Future Expectations and Efficiency - The central government has called for accelerated bond issuance and improved fund utilization efficiency, with expectations that local governments will complete the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [9]. - The State Council has significantly relaxed the restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding [10]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating manageable debt risk [10].