Core Insights - The report highlights the strong vitality and resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2025, with significant achievements in high-quality development and proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] Fiscal Performance - China's fiscal operations in the first half of 2025 were generally stable, with good budget execution. The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, doubling the funding compared to 2024 [2] - A total of 1,620 billion yuan of these special bonds has been pre-allocated, driving sales exceeding 16 trillion yuan and contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the full year of 2024 [2] - The central government issued 5,550 billion yuan in special bonds in the first half of 2025, with a new special bond limit of 4.4 trillion yuan fully allocated to local governments [2] Support for Innovation and Employment - The central budget for basic research increased by 12.1% compared to the previous year, with 6 billion yuan allocated to support local technological development [3] - Over 2,200 small and medium-sized enterprises in technology innovation received approximately 90 billion yuan in loans through a special guarantee plan [3] - Employment support funds of 66.74 billion yuan were allocated to assist local implementation of social insurance and vocational training subsidies [3] Future Fiscal Policy Directions - Future fiscal policies will focus on six areas: effectively utilizing proactive fiscal policies, supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new development momentum, improving living standards, preventing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to ensure efficient budget execution and improve the effectiveness of fund usage while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors [4] Employment and Trade Stability - The Ministry of Finance plans to intensify employment stabilization policies, support public employment services, vocational training, and job retention efforts [4] - There will be a focus on helping enterprises stabilize orders, transition to domestic sales, and expand markets, addressing practical challenges faced by businesses [4]

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a total issuance of approximately 91,062 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in issuance from July onwards, culminating in approximately 5,600 billion yuan in October, slightly above January's issuance [3][5]. - Of the 91,062 billion yuan borrowed, around 60% was allocated to repay old debts, while approximately 40% was directed towards major project construction [5][7]. - The new local government bonds issued included about 47,000 billion yuan in new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 44,000 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year), primarily aimed at repaying existing debts [5][7]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Funding - A total of approximately 12,500 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, specifically for resolving local government hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises, indicating a focus on debt repayment [7][8]. - The majority of new special bonds were utilized for significant public projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [8]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - As of September 2025, the total local government debt stood at 536,995 billion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are generally manageable [9]. - In the first three quarters of the year, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds, demonstrating the ability to meet debt obligations [9].

Group 1 - The central government has set a new local government special bond limit of 39 billion yuan for this year, an increase of 10 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting local governments in addressing key areas and filling gaps [1] - As of April 18, 2023, a total of 170 new special bonds have been issued by various regions, amounting to approximately 654.37 billion yuan, with the first quarter alone accounting for 634.12 billion yuan [1] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter to meet project funding needs and support economic growth and investment plans [2] Group 2 - The issuance, allocation, and utilization of special bonds in China have shown significant achievements, establishing a long-term mechanism for issuance, distribution, project evaluation, risk warning, and information disclosure [2] - The characteristics of special bond issuance in the second quarter are expected to include a stronger emphasis on the applicability of project lists, continuous expansion of issuance scale, and a focus on matching the physical workload generated by the bonds with their effectiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - Local government bond issuance has reached a record high in the first seven months of the year, with a total of 6.7 trillion yuan, primarily aimed at refinancing old debts and funding major projects [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Purpose - In the first seven months, approximately 3.4 trillion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued, marking a 65% year-on-year increase, while new bonds totaled about 3.3 trillion yuan, up approximately 55% [1][2]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, with nearly half directed towards major project construction [1]. - The issuance of special bonds has been significant, with about 2.8 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, accounting for over 60% of the annual target of 4.4 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Debt Management and Financial Impact - The average interest cost of replaced hidden debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, significantly easing repayment pressure and releasing fiscal space for development and public welfare [2]. - Special new bonds, totaling approximately 755 billion yuan, are specifically aimed at resolving hidden debt issues and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2]. Group 3: Project Funding Allocation - Of the nearly 2 trillion yuan allocated for project construction from new special bonds, approximately 26.37% is directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17.63% towards transportation infrastructure, and 13.03% towards land reserve projects [8]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, exceeding 260 billion yuan, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [8]. Group 4: Future Expectations and Efficiency - The central government has called for accelerated bond issuance and improved fund utilization efficiency, with expectations that local governments will complete the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October [9]. - The State Council has significantly relaxed the restrictions on the use of special bond funds, allowing for greater flexibility and autonomy in project funding [10]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan, indicating manageable debt risk [10].