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全品种价差日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20260330
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 06:38
Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the first two months of this year, the revenue and profit of industrial enterprises grew well, with the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size reaching 20.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, and the total profit reaching 1024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail in the first two months exceeded market expectations, and the growth of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size also exceeded expectations. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - finding. The central bank will guide and regulate the interest rate level to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. The bond futures may be volatile in the short term [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Contents Market Review - On Friday, most main contracts of bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2606 fell 0.29%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.01%. The Wind All - A Index opened lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon, and closed up 1.05%. The trading volume was 1.86 trillion yuan, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. International crude oil prices rose, and US stocks fell, with the VIX index rising to 31.05 [1][2] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with 20.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 125.7 billion yuan on the day. - Money market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low on Friday. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.44%, also the same as the previous trading day. - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds fell 0.59 basis points to 1.30%, the 5 - year fell 1.21 basis points to 1.55%, the 10 - year fell 0.22 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.01 basis points to 2.35%. - National Bureau of Statistics data showed that from January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%, and the operating income was 20.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to listen to a report on the development of the service industry in China and study relevant policies and measures to accelerate the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system. - ECB officials said that if the Iran war drags on until June, interest rate hikes may be unavoidable. ECB Governing Council member and Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch said that if the Iran conflict is not resolved before June, the ECB "most likely" will have to take action and he "agrees" with the current market pricing of at least two interest rate hikes this year [1] Market Logic - The good revenue and profit growth of industrial enterprises in the first two months, along with better - than - expected economic data such as fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail, and the still - bottom - finding real estate market, as well as the central bank's policy on interest rate regulation, all contribute to the short - term volatile situation of bond futures [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20260325
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 08:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. Most contracts first declined and then rose in the morning session and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.52%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with 51 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 33.5 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low on Tuesday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, down from 1.43% in the previous trading day [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on Tuesday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.51 BP to 1.31%, the 5 - year increased by 0.47 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.44 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.73 BP to 2.35% [1] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 51.4, expected to be 49.4, and the previous value was 50.8. The preliminary value of the eurozone's service PMI in March fell to 50.1, far lower than the expected 51.1. The eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped from 51.9 in February to 50.5, lower than the analysts' expected 51, hitting the lowest level since May last year [1] - The preliminary data released by S&P Global on March 24 showed that the US composite PMI output index in March was 51.4, lower than 51.9 in February, hitting a new low since April last year. Services were the main drag, with its business activity index dropping to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, a two - month high [1] - On March 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid method. There will be 450 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day [1] Market Logic - In the first two months of this year, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail sales all exceeded market expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size also exceeded expectations, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index rebounded compared with December last year. The sales area of new homes in the first two months continued to decline significantly year - on - year, and the overall second - hand housing sales price continued to decline month - on - month. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking [1][2] - On March 18, the enlarged meeting of the central bank's Party committee pointed out that according to the changes in the economic and financial situation and the macro - economic operation, it is necessary to guide and regulate the interest rate level to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost [2] - On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, bottomed out and rebounded in the morning, and had a wave of rise in the afternoon, closing with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, up 2.11% with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.45 trillion yuan [2] - The US President said on Monday that he had a dialogue with Iran and suspended the strike on Iranian energy facilities for five days. Although Iran denied it, the market treated it as good news. Overnight US stocks and the stock markets of China, Japan, and South Korea on Tuesday all rose [2]
格林期货早盘提示:国债-20260302
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 02:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bond futures is "Bullish" [1] Core View of the Report - The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment has risen due to the US - Israel joint air strike on Iran on February 28, and Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term. The report suggests that trading - type investors conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.07%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.05%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.03% [1] Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 269 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with no reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 269 billion yuan. On February 28, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with no reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.35% (1.37% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (the same as the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - **Bond Issuance**: As of February 25, the issuance scale of local government bonds nationwide has exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of local government bonds in the first two months of this year (about 2.28 trillion yuan) is expected to increase by about 22% compared to the same period last year. As of February 26, the total issuance scale of Treasury bonds in 2026 reached 2.239 trillion yuan, a 12% increase compared to 1.99606 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025. The newly - issued local government special bonds in 2026 as of February 26 were 807.686 billion yuan, a 60% increase compared to 504.075 billion yuan in the same period in 2025. March may be the peak supply period for Treasury bonds and local bonds in the first quarter [1] - **Policy**: On February 27, the central bank decided to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026, which is the first adjustment since September 2022. This will reduce the cost of forward foreign exchange sales business for banks and lower the cost of forward foreign exchange purchases for enterprises, releasing a policy signal to prevent the rapid appreciation of the RMB and helping to stabilize market expectations [1][2] - **Political Meeting**: On February 27, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan and the government work report. It emphasized continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening the synergy between reform measures and macro - policies, and promoting the high - quality development of the economy [2] - **International Incident**: On February 28, the US and Israel jointly carried out an air strike on Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked and killed, casting a shadow of war over the Middle East again [2] Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan and a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January, with the core CPI rising 0.3% month - on - month and the PPI rising 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderately growing economy in January. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the comprehensive social financing cost at a low level and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened lower, quickly recovered in the morning session, and then moved sideways, with a small rally in the afternoon, closing up 0.41% for the day with a trading volume of 2.51 trillion yuan, showing little change compared to the previous trading day's 2.56 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20260227
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 01:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures generally declined, and they may experience short - term volatility. It is necessary to continue monitoring the trend of the A - share market. For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures mostly opened lower, with continuous declines in the morning session and horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 dropped 0.53%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2606 declined 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2606 decreased 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market slightly decreased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.38% in the previous trading day), and that of DR007 was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year government bond rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year climbed 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year jumped 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - AI model data: From the 9th - 15th, the weekly call volume of Chinese models on the OpenRouter platform reached 4.12 trillion Tokens, surpassing that of US models for the first time. From the 16th - 22nd, the weekly call volume of Chinese models soared to 5.16 trillion Tokens, a 127% increase in three weeks, while that of US models dropped to 2.7 trillion Tokens. Four of the top - five models on the platform are from Chinese manufacturers, accounting for 85.7% of the total call volume of the top 5. The users of this platform are mainly overseas developers, with US users accounting for 47.17% and Chinese developers only 6.01% [1] Market Logic - In January, the social financing scale in China increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, RMB loans under the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [2] - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month [2] - In January, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economic situation in January [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens" [2] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the overall social financing cost at a low level, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, closing with a small T - line, up 0.21% for the day. The trading volume was 2.56 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.48 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategies - For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [2]