本文共1270字 A股市场本轮行情的突出特点是科技牛行情，这也是笔者一直坚持的观点。 阅读完约4分钟 ■ 杨德龙 除科创板之外，创业板指数在三季度出现大幅上涨，科创50指数今年更是大涨50%以上，体现出科技牛 的成色越来越足。相对而言，传统行业表现低迷，没有形成明显的赚钱效应，也未吸引大量资金流入， 这与我国经济正在转型密切相关。许多传统行业业绩增长缓慢，部分行业甚至产能过剩，需求不足已成 为突出的瓶颈。下一步要通过推动经济转型，带动更多行业逐步转向"人工智能+"方向，通过人工智能 赋能传统行业，产生新的发展机会。 今年的科技牛主要由以人形机器人、芯片半导体、智能驾驶、创新药、固态电池为代表的科技创新板块 带动。这轮牛市的特点是结构性分化：代表新质生产力的科技创新板块大幅上涨，而传统板块相对落 后。目前呈现出强者恒强的态势。 节假日期间，海外市场表现较强，美股三大股指创出历史新高，恒生科技指数表现较强。美联储降息的 概率越来越大，10月份预计再次降息25个基点，12月份还会再降息25个基点，以应对美国政府停摆可能 对就业及经济增长带来的影响。 对于10月份的行情，建议投资者保持信心和耐心，"金九银十"行情成色 ...

除了科创板之外，指数在三季度出现大幅上涨，国庆节后首个交易日继续上攻。科创50指数今年更是大 涨50%以上，体现出科技牛的成色越来越足。相对而言，传统行业表现低迷，没有形成明显的赚钱效 应，也未吸引大量资金流入，这与我国经济正在转型密切相关。许多传统行业业绩增长缓慢，部分甚至 产能过剩，需求不足已成为突出的瓶颈。下一步要通过推动经济转型，带动更多行业逐步转向"人工智 能+"方向，通过人工智能赋能传统行业，产生新的机会。今年的科技牛主要由人形机器人、芯片半导 体、智能驾驶、创新药、固态电池为代表的科技创新板块带动。这轮牛市的特点是结构分化：代表新型 生产力的科技创新板块大幅上涨，而传统板块相对落后。目前呈现出强者恒强的态势。 节假日期间，海外市场表现较强，三大股指创出历史新高，恒生科技指数也表现较强。美联储降息的概 率越来越大，10月份预计再次降息25个基点，12月份还会再降息25个基点，以应对美国政府停摆可能对 就业及经济增长带来的影响。对于10月份的行情，建议投资者保持信心和耐心，"金九银十"行情成色越 来越足。美国股市创新高主要得益于科技股大涨，特别是以AI为代表的科技"七姐妹"不断上涨，拉高指 数，推动 ...

国庆节之后，市场与预期一致出现大幅上涨。在科技股大涨的带动下，上证指数突破3900点整数关口， 创出十年新高，市场赚钱效应非常突出。这轮行情的突出特点是科技牛行情，这也是我一直坚持的观 点。当前我们处于科技创新大发展过程中，创新为国家经济发展增添动力。科创板是科技自立自强的核 心资本引擎，"十四五"规划指出，要坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位，到2035年，我国将 基本实现社会主义现代化，经济实力、科技实力、综合国力大幅跃升，经济总量和城乡居民人均收入迈 上新台阶，关键核心技术实现重大突破，进入创新型国家前列。2025年，科创板进一步深化改革 的"1+6"政策配套业务规则落地，标志着科创板从"试验田"向"深水区"转型，成为培育新型生产力、服 务科技强国战略的前沿工具之一。 （作者系前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理） MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 在美联储降息预期增强以及美国政府停摆等因素影响下，国际金价近期大幅上升，突破4000美元/盎司 大关，看多声音增多，国际投行纷纷提高国际金价目标价。去年我就提出，未来随着美元越发越多，用 美元标价的黄金价格势必呈现长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Tibet-Guangdong direct current project marks a significant step in energy transmission, enabling Tibet to supply 43 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually to the Guangdong province, which is crucial for meeting its growing energy demands [4][27]. Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - Guangdong, as China's largest economy and industrial province, has an electricity consumption forecast of 912.1 billion kilowatt-hours for 2024, comparable to that of Japan [9]. - Despite having a generation capacity exceeding 700 billion kilowatt-hours, Guangdong faces a significant electricity shortfall, necessitating the expansion of nuclear power and reliance on "West-to-East Power Transmission" [10][15]. - The Tibet-Guangdong project will enhance energy supply, with the potential for Tibet to develop its vast hydropower resources, estimated at a theoretical annual generation capacity exceeding 1 trillion kilowatt-hours [19][21]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Economic Impact - The Tibet-Guangdong direct current project will span over 2,600 kilometers, utilizing advanced technology to deliver electricity with minimal latency [25][26]. - The project is expected to create over 100,000 jobs during peak construction, significantly impacting the local economy in Tibet [31]. - The total investment for the project is projected to reach 200 billion yuan, including direct investments and supporting infrastructure [30]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Development - Tibet, historically the weakest province in terms of GDP and population, is experiencing a turnaround with multiple large-scale infrastructure projects, including the 300 billion yuan Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the 1 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project [40][42]. - Recent years have seen Tibet achieving the highest GDP growth rates in the country, indicating a shift in its economic trajectory [38]. - The combination of significant investments and infrastructure development positions Tibet to potentially escape its status as the weakest province economically [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative as a pivotal strategy for China's economic transformation, aiming for AI to become a major growth driver by 2030 and fully integrated into society by 2035 [4][6][8]. Group 1: AI Development Goals - The Chinese government has set a three-step plan for AI development, targeting over 70% application penetration by 2027 and over 90% by 2030, with the goal of establishing a smart economy as a key growth engine [4][6]. - By 2030, the core AI industry is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, driving related industries to surpass 10 trillion yuan, indicating a massive economic shift [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Transition - The transition from a real estate-driven economy to a smart economy signifies a comprehensive restructuring of pillar industries, with AI expected to play a crucial role in this transformation [6][7]. - The article highlights that AI represents a new paradigm of production factors, with data being termed the "fourth production factor," contrasting with traditional reliance on land in real estate [7][8]. Group 3: Global AI Competition - The article discusses the global race in AI, with major economies prioritizing AI in their strategic frameworks, including the U.S. and the EU, while China aims to leverage its "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to gain a competitive edge [10][11]. - China's AI strategy has evolved from being a follower in previous tech revolutions to taking a leading role in the current AI revolution, with significant advancements in core technologies [12][11]. Group 4: Application and Market Potential - The success of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative hinges on large-scale applications, with the potential to create a market worth tens of trillions, driven by diverse sectors such as education, healthcare, and urban governance [13][15]. - The article outlines six key action areas for AI application, including enhancing scientific research, industrial development, consumer quality, public welfare, governance capabilities, and global cooperation [14][15]. Group 5: Investment and Economic Impact - AI investments are projected to reach hundreds of billions, with significant capital expenditures from major Chinese tech firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI sector [21][19]. - The article predicts that by 2028, global AI spending will surge from over $200 billion to more than $600 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% [19][21]. Group 6: Future Prospects and Strategic Positioning - The article suggests that companies and regions that position themselves as leaders in AI will be better equipped to convert policy advantages into market success, emphasizing the importance of a complete ecosystem from computing power to application [27][28]. - The focus on self-reliance and core technology development is deemed essential for long-term success in the AI landscape, with companies encouraged to innovate independently to avoid dependency on external technologies [28][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a Chinese company, Ximic Technology, in the magnetic sensor market, leveraging new TMR technology to replace traditional solutions and capture market opportunities in the context of the fourth technological revolution [2][3][11]. Industry Overview - The article highlights the historical context of technological revolutions and the dominance of Western countries in global technology leadership, leading to a significant shift with the rise of new technologies in various sectors, including AI and electric vehicles [3]. - The demand for intelligent sensing is surging, presenting a critical opportunity for domestic companies to capitalize on this trend [4]. Magnetic Sensor Technology - Magnetic sensors are essential components in various applications, converting changes in magnetic fields into electrical signals, and are crucial for AI power, electric vehicles, and robotics [5]. - There are two main technological routes for magnetic sensors: Hall effect sensors and magnetoresistive sensors (xMR), with TMR technology being the most advanced and suitable for high-performance applications [6]. Market Growth Projections - The global magnetic sensor market is projected to grow from RMB 119.2 billion in 2024 to approximately RMB 293 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.7% [6]. - The TMR sensor segment is expected to see even higher growth, with sales projected to reach around RMB 33 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 26.5% from 2024 to 2029 [7]. Challenges in the Market - The TMR sensor market is characterized by low domestic production rates in China, with a 90% reliance on imports for high-end products due to significant technical barriers in manufacturing [8]. - The production process involves complex steps, including chip design and wafer production, which require substantial investment and expertise [8]. Ximic Technology's Position - Ximic Technology, founded in 2013, has developed a comprehensive product line and achieved international standards in key performance metrics, positioning itself as the leading Chinese company in the magnetic sensor industry by 2024 [10][11]. - The company adopted an IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) model after acquiring Sensitec, allowing it to control the entire production chain from chip design to end solutions [12]. Strategic Partnerships and Customer Engagement - Ximic Technology emphasizes deep collaboration with clients, integrating into their product development processes to enhance service and value creation [14]. - The company has established a strong R&D team and global presence, with significant sales in the TMR magnetic sensor market, ranking second globally by 2024 [14][15]. Future Outlook - The magnetic sensor market is expected to thrive as industries transition towards electrification and intelligence, with Ximic Technology poised to play a significant role in this evolution [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant gains due to low domestic interest rates, ample liquidity, policy support, and a shift of household savings into the capital market, alongside increasing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 1% and surpassed 3700 points, indicating a strong upward trend and increased profitability for investors, attracting more external capital, including foreign investments [1][3] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with trading volumes consistently above 2 trillion yuan [4] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential further cuts by the end of the year, which could lower the benchmark rate below 4% [2][3] - The U.S. government debt has surpassed 37 trillion dollars, increasing concerns about debt repayment pressures and prompting calls for monetary easing to stabilize the economy [2] Policy Support - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with recent meetings highlighting the need for a more inclusive and attractive capital market [3][4] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and pension funds, have increased their allocations to equity assets, contributing to market liquidity [4] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of household savings being redirected to the capital market, driven by low interest rates on savings accounts, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1% [4] - The shift in consumer behavior is expected to support the ongoing bull market, which is anticipated to last for two to three years, characterized by a slow and steady growth rather than rapid fluctuations [4] Technological Advancements - The fourth industrial revolution, particularly the application of artificial intelligence, is gaining momentum, with significant developments in AI models for specialized fields such as aerospace [5][6] - The humanoid robot sector is emerging as a potential new industry, attracting global attention and investment opportunities [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote reasonable price recovery and stimulate consumption [7][8] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and a CPI target of 2%, with measures in place to boost consumer spending and achieve these goals [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced continuous breakthroughs and significant increases, driven by low domestic interest rates, ample liquidity, policy support, and a shift of household savings to the capital market [1] - The market's strong performance is also influenced by heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to increased inflow of external capital [1][4] Index Performance - Major indices have shown positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by over 1% to 3766.21, and other indices such as the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also recording gains [2] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is considered very high, influenced by pressure from President Trump and disappointing employment data [4] - The Federal Reserve may lower the benchmark interest rate from the current range of 4.25%-4.5% to below 4% by the end of the year, which could support the recovery of the U.S. economy [4] Bull Market Confirmation - The current bull market trend is gradually being established, with significant policy support since last September signaling the start of this bull market [5] - Institutional investors have increased their allocations to equity assets, contributing to the market's upward momentum [5][6] Capital Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable trend of household savings moving towards the capital market, with nearly 60 trillion yuan added to savings over the past five years, driven by low interest rates [6] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating strong market confidence and increased trading volumes [6] Technological Advancements - The fourth technological revolution is underway, with significant advancements in AI applications, particularly in the aerospace sector [7] - The "Wukong AI" model has been developed for space missions, showcasing the potential of AI in specialized fields [7] Investment Opportunities - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, with potential to become a major industry following home appliances, smartphones, and new energy vehicles [8] - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in the "AI + traditional industries" space, as the market for humanoid robots expands [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced continuous breakthroughs and significant increases due to low domestic interest rates, ample liquidity, and policy support, alongside a growing expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 1%, surpassing 3700 points, which has attracted more external capital, including foreign investment, as the China-US interest rate differential narrows and the pressure of RMB depreciation eases [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential further cuts by the end of the year, which could lower the benchmark interest rate from the current 4.25%-4.5% to below 4%, providing support for the US economic recovery [2] Group 2 - The current bull market trend is gradually establishing itself, with significant policy support being a crucial factor, as the Central Political Bureau has emphasized stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [3][4] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, public funds, and pension funds, have increased their allocations to equity assets, contributing to a substantial influx of capital into the market [3][4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased trading volume, with multiple trading days exceeding 2 trillion yuan [4] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of residents shifting savings to the capital market, with nearly 60 trillion yuan added to savings accounts over the past five years, driven by low interest rates on deposits [4] - The current bull market is expected to last two to three years, characterized by a slow and steady growth rather than a rapid surge, encouraging value investing and the allocation of quality stocks and funds [4] Group 4 - The fourth technological revolution is underway, particularly with the widespread application of artificial intelligence, as demonstrated by the progress of "Wukong AI" in the aerospace sector [5][6] - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, with significant events and IPOs attracting investor interest, positioning humanoid robots as a potential fourth major industry in China [6] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China has emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting reasonable price recovery and improving consumer demand through supply-side reforms [7] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and a CPI target of 2%, with measures to stimulate consumption and achieve the inflation target being crucial [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, emphasizing a "confidence bull market" driven by significant policy easing and a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding China's economic prospects [5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - Recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates a new high for RMB assets, coinciding with a weakening US dollar and strengthening RMB exchange rate [6]. - The "confidence bull market" is characterized by a historical turning point in macroeconomic policy, marked by substantial fiscal measures and ongoing monetary easing [7]. - The concept of "East rises, West falls" suggests that while the US economy may face a downturn, China's economy is poised for recovery and renewed interest from global investors [7]. Group 2: Historical Analysis of A-share Bull Markets - A-share bull markets require three conditions for initiation: policy shift, capital inflow, and low valuations, often emerging from periods of despair [9]. - Bull markets typically progress through three phases: policy-driven, capital-driven, and fundamental-driven, with initial phases less correlated to economic fundamentals [9][10]. - The average duration of A-share bull markets is 17.35 months, significantly shorter than the average bear market duration of 27.12 months [10]. Group 3: Economic Trends for the Second Half of 2025 - The global economic landscape is marked by rising populism and de-globalization, with Chinese companies increasingly seeking opportunities abroad [12]. - The ongoing US-China tariff conflict is expected to persist, with potential escalations in trade tensions [12]. - Key factors for economic recovery include restoring confidence in the private sector, stabilizing the real estate market, and fostering new productive forces [12][13]. Group 4: Strategies for Economic Recovery - The concept of "debt migration" is proposed as a strategy to revitalize the economy, emphasizing the need for government and central bank intervention to alleviate debt burdens on households and businesses [14][15]. - Three main strategies for implementing "debt migration" include aggressive economic policies, establishing a housing reserve bank, and investing in new infrastructure [16][17]. - The focus on new infrastructure aims to support long-term economic growth and technological advancement, positioning China for future economic prosperity [16][17].