今天（12月26日）早盘，商品市场再度上演"狂飙模式"。 在海外市场因圣诞节假期休市的背景下，国内贵金属与基本金属价格集体拉升，多个品种刷新历史纪录。 其中，广期所铂期货主力合约盘中触及涨停，沪银、沪铜强势上攻，铜价距离10万元/吨关口仅一步之遥。 铂、钯期货价格的快速上行，也再度引发交易所层面的风控"加码"。 在资金情绪与基本面共振之下，贵金属和基本金属不断改写历史纪录，成为市场关注的焦点。 有机构也提 醒，随着价格的快速拉升，贵金属市场短期波动风险显著放大。 铂期货封涨停，波动风险加大 12月26日，广期所铂期货主力合约开盘后迅速拉升，盘中触及涨停板，日内涨幅达9.99%，报709.85元/克，再 创上市以来新高。盘面显示，日内一度增仓约2800手，做多情绪依然高涨。 与此同时，国际现货铂金同步走强，价格上涨逾5%，至每盎司2333.85美元，内外盘联动明显。作为今年以来 表现最为抢眼的贵金属品种之一，铂金在供需偏紧、资金追逐以及贵金属整体走强的背景下，持续刷新市场对 其价格中枢的认知。 不过，随着价格快速拉升，波动风险也在显著放大。金瑞期货研究员吴梓杰指出，当前市场风险偏好处于高 位，价格波动不容忽视。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, despite failing to break through the 21,000 mark as expected, there is a continued bullish outlook on the unilateral price, volatility direction, and smelting profit in the medium - term. The current macro - pricing environment is still friendly for base metals. The fundamentals are generally good, and downstream consumption is expected to improve [3]. - For alumina, there is significant market divergence around the 2,900 mark. The fundamental drivers are downward, but the valuation is low. The market is entering a phase of capital gaming, and the spot price is expected to continue facing pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while that of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 100 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Shandong alumina to the current month decreased from 78 yuan/ton to 21 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina decreased from 138 yuan/ton to 96 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of nearby Shanghai aluminum contracts showed increased volatility [12]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also increased slightly [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and that of alumina continued to decline and is at a historically low level [20]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: - Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of September 19, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 270,000 tons week - on - week. - In August, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 470,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants remained stable. - The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia decreased as of September 19. - The outbound and inbound volumes of bauxite increased as of September 12 [25][30][31][36]. - **Alumina**: - The total national inventory continued to increase. The total inventory increased by 48,000 tons week - on - week. - As of September 18, the national alumina inventory was 3.719 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons week - on - week [44][50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory continued to increase. As of September 18, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 18,000 tons to 636,000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot and in - plant inventories showed a divergent trend this week [57]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In August, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly. The finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum plate - foil both increased slightly [59]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In August, the domestic bauxite supply showed a divergent trend. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. The bauxite output in Shanxi decreased, while that in Henan increased according to the Steel Union's caliber, and decreased according to the SMM's caliber. The bauxite output in Guangxi decreased according to both calibers [64][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of September 19, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.8 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.861 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons. The short - term supply - side fundamentals remained loose [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of August, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit recovery. As of September 18, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 852,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing**: - The output of aluminum plate - foil increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 2,700 tons. - The output of recycled aluminum rods increased by 200 tons week - on - week, while the output of aluminum rods decreased by 30 tons week - on - week. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing龙头 enterprises increased slightly to 62.2%. The operating rate of aluminum plate - strip decreased slightly, while that of aluminum foil remained high. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased, that of aluminum cables remained stable, that of aluminum profiles increased, and that of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [77][79][80]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelting profit remained at a good level. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 196.7 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than in other regions [95]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [106]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 130 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [107]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: - The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum widened. - In August 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, and the export profits and losses of aluminum processed products showed a divergent trend [115][117][121]. - **Apparent Demand**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [123].