证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 公募债基变革，市场的两大关切 接下来，我们将针对以上两个问题进行更深入的分析，详细讨论如果"严格版本"的债基赎回费率落地，可 能会对债市产生多大的影响，以及市场担心的"公募恢复征税"，在政策落地层面是否存在推进阻力。 （一）赎回费落地对债市的潜在影响 截至 2025 年 6 月末，万得口径下的债券型基金规模（包含中长债基、短债基金、混合一二级债基、指数债 基）合计约 11.15 万亿元，其中个人投资者、机构投资者占比分别为 17%、81%，对应规模为 1.88、8.99 万亿 元。债券基金的机构持有比例较高，主要来自理财、保险、银行三类机构，不同机构对于债基赎回费新规的看 法以及应对方式，或是决定后续债市走向的关键。 银行理财方面，据中国理财网半年报数据，截至 2025 年 6 月末，银行理财持仓中的公募债基占比为 4.2%，对应的持仓规模为 1.38 万亿元。如果结合理财季报的前十大持仓资产情况分析（理财季报披露较慢，最 新数据统计至 25Q1），理财重仓的基金当中，中长债基、短债基金的规模占 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮调整，为何债基久期降幅不明显？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 Q3 以来债市明显调整，但公募债基久期降幅并不明显：1）相比 Q1，本轮债市调整相对 温和，出现多次修复，并未达到部分基金的短期止损线；2）从完成全年业绩考核角度，专注久 期策略的债基表现明显弱于去年，而 Q4 又是债市传统的抢跑和修复窗口；3）低利率环境下市 场策略容量和选择较为单一；4）一般幅度的市场调整可能并不足以引发大规模的赎回和赎回资 产的重配置。预计公募债基继续保持中等偏高的久期水平，10 年期国债收益率在 1.7%-1.8%区 间震荡，随着股债相关性减弱和基本面压力回升，预计四季度债市环境会整体优于三季度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮调整，为何债基久期降幅不明 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，中金公司发布研究报告，聚焦公募基金行业费率改革第三阶段背景下，若7天免赎成为历史，公募债基投资将如何应对这一 重大变革。 对于产品布局方向，中金公司认为债券ETF或迎来政策窗口，产品开发可着眼国内波段工具需求进行细分主题创新，参考美国市场拓展海外市场、债券策略 及另类策略方向，还可拓展多资产ETF及固定收入ETF等形式。ETF - FOF或迎市场机遇，公募FOF为降低调仓成本，"ETF化"投资模式有助于发挥资产配置 优势，2024年末以来近20家机构已上报相关产品方案。高波"固收 +"产品仍具发展潜力，虽短期交易成本上调，但投资净收益可观，当前高仓位"固收 +"基 金规模占比仅16%，未来可期。 中金公司研报分析了新规若实施对公募基金市场的影响。在产品定位方面，场外产品将趋向长线持有，与场内ETF的短期交投定位逐渐清晰分化。对于债 基，频繁交易成本将抬升，难以再承担波段功能，债券ETF迎来发展机遇，因其有望承接债券短期波段操作需求。组合短线调仓成本上调，部分公募FOF与 投顾为坚持战术资产配置，可能向ETF化投资转型。短债基金投资定位将转向，货基与理财等或接棒承担流动性管理职能，因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The third phase of the public fund industry fee reform has officially started, focusing on the adjustment of sales fees to encourage long-term holding and reduce irrational short-term trading behaviors [2][9][11]. Group 1: Fee Reform Overview - In July 2023, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Public Fund Industry Fee Reform Work Plan," marking the beginning of the third phase of fee reform [2][9]. - The reform aims to lower the comprehensive fee levels of public funds through a gradual approach, focusing on management fees, transaction fees, and sales fees [9][11]. - The proposed adjustments to redemption fees include a tiered structure for different holding periods, with a minimum of 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0.5% for holdings between 30 days to 6 months [12][11]. Group 2: Impact on Fund Market - The new redemption fee structure is expected to clarify the positioning of public products, distinguishing between long-term holding for off-market funds and active trading for ETFs [15][14]. - Frequent trading costs for bond funds are likely to increase, making it difficult for them to serve as tools for short-term trading, thus creating opportunities for bond ETFs [16][14]. - The cost of short-term adjustments for public funds of funds (FOFs) is expected to rise, leading to a trend towards ETF-based investment strategies [21][20]. Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to optimize their pure bond fund management by using actively managed funds as a base, complemented by bond ETFs for market timing and liquidity management tools [29][31]. - A comprehensive evaluation system for bond ETFs is recommended, focusing on liquidity, tracking ability, and strategy uniqueness [31][32]. - The investment strategy for "fixed income plus" funds may polarize into long-term stable products and high-volatility aggressive products, maintaining a balance between risk and return [33][24]. Group 4: Future Product Development Directions - There is a significant opportunity for the development of bond ETFs, particularly in niche themes and strategies, as the market for these products is expanding rapidly [36][41]. - The diversification of institutional investors in bond ETFs is increasing, with a notable shift in the types of institutions holding these products [37][41]. - Future product innovations may include multi-asset ETFs and fixed-income ETFs, addressing the evolving needs of institutional investors [42][41].

美国就业加速转冷。 W36首次申领失业金人数超季节性上行2.7万至26.3万，创过去4年新高。W35持续申领失 业金人数稳定在193.9万，继续于193-198万区间震荡，暂未出现显著上行趋势。 美国通胀短期无虞。 8月美国PPI通胀意外回落至2.6%，显著低于市场预期的3.3%；CPI通胀小幅上行至2.9%， 关税对商品通胀的影响仍弱于预期。 美国财政政策保持宽松立场。 W36赤字额达到$369亿，持续强于季节性运行。截至8月，2025财年（2024Q4- 2025Q3）累计赤字达到$1.99万亿，创历史新高。 美国货币政策行将重启宽松，鸽派预期发酵推动私人部门融资成本下行。 居民部门方面，30年期房贷利率回 落15bp至6.25%；企业部门方面，10年期AAA企业债收益率回落8bp至4.26%。 上周美国公布的8月PPI数据意外低于预期，而CPI相对温和，叠加非农年度下修大幅低于预期，交易员已完全 定价年内三次降息，市场延续鸽派交易。美元、美债利率回落，黄金上涨并续创历史新高，人民币小幅升值。 海外策略：美国货币政策行将重启宽松 美股方面， 上周美股上涨，主要受美联储宽松预期上升影响。展望未来，我们认为当 ...

业内普遍认为，债券基金陷入"市场工具人"困境的根源在于负债端不稳定，赎回潮下公募基金被迫成为 市场"最后的卖方"，而保险资管等机构则往往选择在利率上行时自配债券，在利率下行、交易拥挤时再 申购债基，公募基金在整个生态链中处于最弱势位置 ◎记者 张欣然 9月5日，中国证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》（下称"征求意 见稿"）。业内认为，这一征求意见稿拟通过提高短期赎回成本，改善公募债基长期以来负债端不稳、 频繁被迫"献血"的困境。 新规出台意味着，公募债基有望摆脱频繁赎回的压力，真正回归投研本源。业内认为，在机构资金占比 超过八成、行业竞争日益激烈的背景下，此次改革将倒逼基金经理展现更强的研究和交易能力。未来， 久期灵活、能够创造超额收益的主动管理型公募债基，将成为市场关注的焦点。 公募债基长期投资氛围强化 根据征求意见稿，赎回费率由原先的"四档"简化为"三档"：持有期少于七日的，赎回费不低于赎回金额 的1.5%；满七日但不足三十日的，赎回费不低于1%；满三十日但不足六个月的，赎回费不低于0.5%。 与此前相比，持有期七日至三十日的赎回费率从0.75%上调至1%。同时，ETF、同业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the new public fund fee regulations have led to a generally bearish sentiment towards bond funds, resulting in increased redemption pressure [1][3] - Data shows that in the first two days of the week, various bond products sold nearly 100 billion yuan worth of bonds, with significant sales of long-term government bonds and policy bank bonds [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent large-scale redemptions are not solely due to the new regulations but are also influenced by a combination of negative market events and sentiments [3] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a notable sell-off, with fund companies selling 682 billion yuan in bonds on September 9, making them the largest sellers in the market that day [2] - The new public fund fee regulations are expected to increase redemption fees for short-term holders, potentially reducing institutional investment in bond funds [2] - Market sentiment remains fragile, with even unverified negative news causing significant reactions from investors, leading to a cautious outlook on long-term bonds [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced increased volatility since July, but several institutions remain optimistic about its future direction, with Huaxi Securities suggesting that August may see a peak in the bond market due to weak demand, cooling commodity prices, and seasonal pressures [1] - Dongfang Securities maintains that the logic of a bond bull market remains unchanged, although the market is becoming sensitive to negative factors, indicating that the overall environment is still favorable despite potential disturbances [1] - According to CITIC Securities, the public bond fund market is expected to see a dual recovery in stocks and bonds by the second quarter of 2025, with the total bond fund scale projected to exceed 11 trillion yuan for the year [1] Group 2 - In the index bond fund sector, bond ETFs, particularly the benchmark credit bond ETF and the Sci-Tech bond ETF, have shown significant growth this year, with a combined scale reaching 240 billion yuan as of August 11 [2] - The Guangfa credit bond ETF has seen its scale grow over six times since its inception, reaching 13.904 billion yuan, and has experienced continuous net subscriptions for 29 days following its approval as collateral for general pledged repo [2] - Despite the bond market's volatility in July, the overall trend remains bullish, with medium and short-term credit bonds showing potential for yield spread opportunities, and the expectation that ETF discounts will narrow as market sentiment improves [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward momentum in the coming weeks, potentially breaking through the previous high set on October 8, leading to a significant market rally [1]. Funding Aspects - Recent funding conditions have seen five major positive developments, with substantial capital inflows into the stock market: - Southbound funds recorded a single-day purchase of HKD 20.184 billion in Hong Kong stocks, bringing the total net purchase for the year to HKD 820.028 billion, surpassing last year's total of HKD 807.9 billion, marking a historical high for the same period [2]. - Public funds have shown improvement, with mixed funds growing by CNY 121.3 billion to CNY 3.68 trillion in June, alongside a slight increase in share volume [2]. - The M1-M2 spread has narrowed, indicating a potential shift in liquidity dynamics [3]. - Public bond funds experienced their largest single-day redemption since January, with nearly CNY 100 billion sold, suggesting a possible reshuffling of asset allocations [3]. - Life insurance products are expected to see a decrease in interest rates, with the current standard rate set at 1.99%, down 14 basis points from the previous 2.13% [3]. Technical Aspects - Three technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with a short-term target above 3700: - The gap analysis from the island reversal gap on May 7 to the continuation gap on July 21 indicates a potential upward movement above 3700 [4]. - A descending flag pattern formed since October 8 has been effectively broken in June, also suggesting a target above 3700 [4]. - The wave count indicates a strong trend, currently in a 3-3 formation, supporting the bullish sentiment [5]. Summary - The market is poised for a strong upward attack in the short term, with a focus on maintaining appropriate positions. For those less adept at stock selection, ETFs are recommended as a viable investment option [6].