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基数扰动10月进出口增速放缓,对美出口环比小幅回暖
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-11-10 09:53
10月份,强劲增长的进出口增速骤然下行。 海关总署近日发布数据显示,今年前10月,我国货物贸易进出口总值37.31万亿元,同比增长3.6%,其中,10月单月进出口总值3.7万亿元,增 长0.1%。 不过,在市场人士看来,10月出口同比大幅回落,主因并非外需走弱。"10月出口增速大幅回落,为今年3月以来新低,应是基数扰动下的异常 值,剔除基数影响后两年复合增速为5.5%,仍保持平稳增长态势;此外,出口价格回落和消费电子新品发布时间错位等也可能有一定影 响。"国盛证券(002670)首席经济学家熊园对《华夏时报》记者表示。 申万宏源证券(000562)首席经济学家赵伟也认为,10月出口回落一定程度上受到基数走高的影响,但环比-7.1%仍明显弱于季节性的-3.2%。 华夏时报记者张智北京报道 从进口看,10月进口也有所回落。 具体看,10月我国进口同比增长1.0%,创近五个月以来新低,低于市场一致预期4.1%,与内需走弱有关:10月制造业PMI再创新低,PMI生产 分项回落至荣枯线下。 结构上来看,半导体链方面,集成电路、二极管及类似半导体器件10月进口分别增10.2%、6.5%,合计拉动进口1.7个百分点;工业金 ...
澎湃发展新动能 10月全国各地经济社会发展观察
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-10-31 00:02
Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The double festival period in October has led to a surge in domestic tourism, with 888 million trips taken and total spending reaching 809 billion yuan [2] - There is a shift in consumer preferences from popular tourist spots to more intimate and unique experiences, reflecting a growing demand for quality travel [2][3] - Various regions are enhancing their tourism offerings through technology and personalized services, contributing to a vibrant tourism market [3] Group 2: Agricultural Production - Efforts are being made across various regions to ensure timely harvesting and planting, with over 200,000 harvesting machines mobilized in Henan province alone [4] - The agricultural sector is expected to achieve a good harvest this year, with over 85% of autumn grain already harvested and an increase in high-yield crops like corn [4][5] - Technological advancements in agriculture are improving crop yields and operational efficiency, showcasing a trend towards modernization in farming practices [5] Group 3: Foreign Trade Resilience - The 138th Canton Fair attracted nearly 240,000 foreign buyers, indicating a 6.8% increase from the previous session, showcasing the resilience of China's foreign trade [7] - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth, driven by structural optimization and technological innovation [7] - Various regions are enhancing their foreign trade capabilities through improved logistics and streamlined customs processes, supporting the growth of exports [7][8] Group 4: Major Project Construction - Major construction projects are accelerating as the economy enters the fourth quarter, with significant investments in infrastructure and technology [9] - Various regions are implementing new financial tools to support major projects, addressing capital shortages and stimulating related credit growth [9][10] - The ongoing projects are expected to provide strong momentum for achieving annual economic targets and laying a solid foundation for future growth [10]