欧盟再次面临停产危机，为了自保，连美国要求围堵中国的指令也开始敷衍了事，拒绝对中国加征关税。据彭博社报道，中国欧盟商会18日发布的数据显 示，8月份欧洲企业因稀土短缺已停产7次，预计9月停产次数将激增至46次。作为军民两用关键材料，中国掌控着全球稀土产业链的主导权。此前紧跟美国 脚步制裁所谓援俄中企的欧盟，如今反被美国背后捅刀，中国打出的稀土牌意外收获了戏剧性效果。 欧盟恰好成为特朗普眼中的软柿子。在中俄那里碰壁后，特朗普再次把目光转向欧盟这个老提款机。部分欧盟国家已意识到正承受中美双重压力，开始对美 国提出的通过对中印加税施压俄罗斯的要求采取消极应对。特朗普随即调整策略，一边施压欧盟接受对中印加税，一边怂恿欧盟先发制人，声称无论欧盟加 多少关税美国都会跟进。但这次欧盟似乎学聪明了。 据政客新闻网报道，多位匿名欧盟官员表示，特朗普的要求根本不切实际，纯粹是为推卸责任。然而醒悟太迟的欧盟已落入美国陷阱，早早投降的冯德莱恩 已代表欧盟签署协议，承诺未来3年购买7500亿美元美国能源。这意味着欧盟不得不吞下损害自身利益的苦果，忍受美国压榨。表面看特朗普是要欧盟通过 对中印加税来结束俄乌冲突，实则心知肚明：若欧盟真对 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after failing in the trade war with China, Trump has shifted his focus to other countries, achieving what he perceives as "victories" through unequal agreements, particularly with the EU and Japan [1][3] - The recent trade agreement with the EU requires the EU to pay 15% tariffs, invest $600 billion in the US, import $750 billion in US energy, and purchase significant amounts of US military equipment, indicating a strategic advantage for the US in global trade negotiations [1][3] - Analysts suggest that Trump's ability to exploit this "century loophole" stems from the US's continued advantages in global affairs, particularly in military capabilities compared to other nations [3] Group 2 - A Spanish expert criticized the EU for lacking independence and strategic autonomy, suggesting that it is being led by the US and is unable to assert itself in global negotiations [5] - The recent agreements, while seemingly beneficial for the US, raise questions about their actual implementation and the need for approval from the European Parliament, indicating potential challenges ahead [7] - Trump's announcements often focus on the perceived benefits for the US without providing details on the actual terms and timelines, suggesting a strategy to capture market attention rather than ensuring the agreements' validity [7]

Trade Agreement Framework - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement framework aimed at reducing European automotive tariffs and opening the door for lower steel and aluminum tariffs [1] - The framework includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, EU investments in the US, environmental regulations, cybersecurity agreements, and digital trade barriers [1] Automotive Tariffs - The US will officially lower automotive tariffs once the EU submits the necessary legislative proposal, with a 15% tariff on European cars set to take effect in the month the proposal is advanced, which is lower than the previously threatened 27.5% [2] - This policy shift is closely monitored by EU member states, particularly Germany, which exported $34.9 billion worth of new cars and automotive parts to the US in 2024 [2] Metal Tariffs and Quotas - A quota system is expected to lower tariffs on certain steel, aluminum, and derivative products, contrasting with previous claims that these tariffs would remain at 50% [4] - Both the EU and the US intend to consider cooperation to protect their domestic markets from overcapacity while ensuring supply chain security [4] Investment Commitments - The EU has committed to investing $600 billion in the US or purchasing approximately $750 billion worth of US energy by 2028 [5] - European investments are expected to target strategic sectors in the US, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing [6] Military and Defense Procurement - The EU plans to significantly increase its procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, with a commitment to purchase at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips [6] Agricultural Market Access - The EU intends to provide preferential market access for US seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products, including nuts, certain dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, pork, and bison [6] Digital Trade Barriers - The US and EU have committed to addressing "unreasonable digital trade barriers," with the EU confirming it will not impose or maintain network usage fees [8] - The EU will provide more flexibility in its high carbon import tax policy set to be implemented next year and will ensure that sustainability due diligence and reporting requirements do not unduly restrict transatlantic trade [8]

这一点尤为重要，冷战时代加拿大的全民医疗保证费用和现在军费不足GDP2%，完全是颠倒过来，也就是说，现在加拿大军费开支水平，正是冷战时的 全民医保开支，而冷战后，因为美国继续当奶妈，这个数据完全颠倒了过来。 面对在向乌克兰派出安全部队，各自都在说自己有多困难的欧洲，川普也正在用痛打的方式救欧洲，万斯在慕尼黑会议上对欧洲面临的威胁来自自己，而 不是俄罗斯的警告，言犹在耳，川普为此怎么做的？ 欧洲情况和加拿大类似，也就是，人均GDP收入比欧洲高出几乎整整一倍的美国人，并没有欧洲人的高福利，而欧洲人在美国的保护下，高福利也就算 了，本来试图以补充劳动力引入的异教移民，现在发现消化这些移民导致社会问题的成本指出，远远高于其创造的经济效益，最重要的还不止于经济层 面，而是欧洲变成了斯坦第二，欧盟成了第二个苏联，而凡是敢说出这种真相的人，在英国是要被投入大牢的，意大利总理梅洛尼就是坚持欧洲是罗马法 治+两希文明（希伯来宗教和希腊哲学）这种常识性的观点，就一直被攻击为女墨索里尼，普京迷妹，民族主义者。 首先，降低欧洲对俄罗斯能源依赖，贸易谈判时通过逼迫其大量购买美国能源，让这些买俄罗斯能源的钱买美国能源，不再给俄罗斯输血， ...

中国手中掌握的稀土资源一旦展现出来，立刻产生了显著的效果。美国立刻表现出软化的姿态，显示出中国在这个谈判中的底气。然而，就在中美之间的局 势看似有所缓和之际，欧洲这边却风起云涌，瞬间引发了四场激烈的争论。这不禁让向来被称为"欧洲女王"的冯德莱恩感到忧心忡忡，她的处境如今可谓日 益艰难。 要理解这一切的背后原因，得从之前的关税谈判讲起。早在中美之间启动关税谈判之前，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩曾访问过中国。在那次中欧贸易良好分歧 的谈判之中，她采取了极为强硬的态度，丝毫不肯让步，结果可想而知，中欧的谈判彻底宣告失败。之后她转身前往与美国总统特朗普的会晤，竟然对其表 现出如同投降一般的姿态，为了迎合特朗普的利益，牺牲了欧洲大量的商业利益。放着与中国达成互利协议不选择，反而选择签订对欧洲极为不利的协议， 自然有不少人开始怀疑，冯德莱恩是否实际上是美国在欧洲的"内应"。 然而，这桩协议签订没多久，局面便悄然生变。中国在与美国的关税谈判中依旧保持着一贯的强硬态度。在美国企图通过各种方式威胁中国的这一次，依然 无果而终。中国手中掌握的稀土资源可并非简单的筹码，它在关键时刻能够发挥巨大的作用。正因如此，美国在与中国的关税谈判中不 ...

川普和欧盟达成的贸易协议，延续对日本的15%关税水平，欧洲将花7500亿美元买美国能源，6000亿美 元对美投资，数千亿美元购买军火。 购买美国军火，这既是欧盟国家强化军备的实际需求（5%GDP军费标准提升各国军备采购规模），也 是其用以援助乌克兰的一部分，和此前欧盟花钱买美国武器达成的共识一脉相承。这实际上也是欧盟承 认不具备大规模重启军备生产的现实，马克龙希腊那些希望将武器生产留在欧洲的小九九被否决。 当然，欧盟购买7500亿美元美国能源，对川普日益不满的俄罗斯是釜底抽薪，战时期间欧盟每年买俄罗 斯能源的费用，远超援乌费用的数倍（对乌克兰的许多援助都是纸面上，兑现率不高，但对俄罗斯能源 的购买资金，则不能拖欠）。战争三年多，拜登和欧盟都没真正考虑过让欧盟不再依赖俄罗斯能源而减 少俄罗斯的战争收入。过去18轮的制裁，其实都是雷声大雨点小，表演成分更高。也从不触及对俄罗斯 能源收入的打击。 现在，欧盟没法继续花钱资助俄罗斯进行这场战争了，是的，你没看错，欧盟援助乌克兰，也资助俄罗 斯，当时的幻想是美国来兜底，但现在川普断了他们的念想。 可以说，让欧盟买美国能源，本该是拜登在2022年就做的事，但当时拜登的极端 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that a significant energy purchase agreement was reached between the EU and the US, initially suggested by Trump to be $1 trillion, but finalized at $750 billion [1] Group 2 - The agreement indicates a strong commitment from the EU to diversify its energy sources by purchasing a substantial amount of American energy [1] - This deal reflects the ongoing geopolitical dynamics and energy security considerations within the EU [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The recent market trading hotspots continue to show a profit - making effect. The sectors benefiting from anti - involution policies and themes such as the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station jointly drive the market sentiment to warm up. The trading volume in the two markets has increased, indicating a stronger market consensus in this upward trend. The current popularity of the cyclical sectors continues, and the low - level sub - sectors within them are also expected to catch up. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the long - position allocation opportunities of stock index futures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts The macro - economic charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [7][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86, up 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11099.83, up 0.84%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2310.86, up 0.61%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4118.96, up 0.82%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2792.18, up 0.28%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6213.41, up 0.85%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6637.10, up 0.38% [13]. - **Market Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.9 trillion yuan on that day [2]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: In the futures market, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously. For example, the trading volume of IF was 117,403, an increase of 28,063; the open interest was 267,547, an increase of 16,392. Similar increases were seen in IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures has been significantly repaired. The current IH contract for the current month is at a premium. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract was - 0.16, an increase of 10.85 [2][39]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report also provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month contracts [46][47].

Core Points - The agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia involves a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, while Indonesia will eliminate all tariffs on U.S. imports and purchase over $19 billion worth of U.S. products, including 50 Boeing aircraft [1] - Indonesia is the first country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. since President Trump issued tariff notices to multiple countries [1] - The agreement is expected to alleviate market concerns in Indonesia, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S. for various sectors, including apparel and palm oil [1] Tariff and Economic Impact - The 19% tariff is significantly lower than the 32% previously threatened by the U.S. and is expected to be higher than the average 5% tariff projected for 2024 [2] - Preliminary estimates suggest that Indonesia's exports to the U.S. may decline by 25% in the medium term, posing a risk of 0.3% to its GDP [2] - The agreement is part of a series of trade frameworks announced by Trump, including agreements with Vietnam and the UK, although many details remain to be negotiated [2]

两天前还怒斥欧盟贸易不公、威胁从6月1日起加税的特朗普，又改变了主意。当地时间5月25日，美国总统特朗普 称与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通话后，同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的最后期限恢复至7月9日。此次延期显示，双 方仍希望保留协商空间，以避免贸易紧张局势升级。 但在分析人士看来，欧美关税谈判，已经成为一场经贸关系 重构的深度博弈。 这是两人自特朗普就职以来首次公开通话。冯德莱恩办公室证实此次通话系她主动发起。冯德莱恩稍早前在社交 媒体上指出，她与特朗普有一次"好的通话"，欧盟准备迅速而果断地推进谈判，但需要更多时间。 特朗普经济顾问摩尔称，冯德莱恩的声明显示欧盟准备好谈判了，"我认为这是一种和解信号"。而欧盟议会的议 员认为，欧盟不会在取消增值税、削弱数字监管等关键问题上让步，美国若期待欧盟"照单全收"，显然打错算 盘。事实上，自4月美国暂停对欧盟征收20%"对等关税"、开启90天谈判窗口期以来，欧盟似乎在寻找既不激烈回 应、又不软弱妥协的"中间方案"。 北京外国语大学区域与全球治理高等研究院教授崔洪建分析称，欧盟主动与美方沟通并非"妥协"，而是延续其谋 求谈判解决问题的既定路径。欧方的策略主要包含双重逻辑。一方 ...