机 械 设 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [同力股份（ Table_NewTitle] 834599）：无人驾驶和新能 源车型发展继续加速 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月26日 公 司 简 评 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：行业需求下行风险；政策变动风险；国际贸易风险；应收账款余额较大风险。 | [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,144.63 | 6,924.72 | 7,657.06 | 8,301.30 | | 同比增长率（%） | 4.85% | 12.70% | 10.58% | 8.41% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 793.08 | 869.38 | 973.60 | 1,082.66 | | 同比增长率（%） | 29.03% | 9.62% | 11.99% | 11.20% | | ...

Industry Overview - Harvest machinery refers to equipment used for harvesting various crops, including grain, cotton, oilseeds, and fruits [1][2] - The market for harvest machinery in China is expected to recover in 2024, with sales projected to reach 127,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% [7][11] - The market size for the harvest machinery industry in China is anticipated to be 18.2 billion yuan in 2024, returning to the level of 2021 [11] Sales Performance - The decline in sales in 2023 was attributed to the inventory depletion of National III equipment and the upgrade to National IV standards, which increased end-user costs [7][9] - The main products in the harvest machinery sector include grain harvesters, with projected sales of 97,400 units in 2024, including 65,300 tracked harvesters and 32,100 wheeled harvesters [9] Technological Advancements - The rapid development of artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things is driving the shift towards smart and automated harvest machinery [13][25] - The penetration rate of smart technology in harvest machinery is expected to rise from 2.5% in 2020 to 24.8% in 2024 [13] Market Structure - The harvest machinery industry in China has a large number of enterprises, with leading companies holding significant market shares [15][19] - In the wheeled grain harvester segment, the top five companies account for nearly 85% of the market share, while in the tracked grain harvester segment, the concentration is even higher at 96.8% [15][19] Development Trends - The harvest machinery industry is undergoing a transformation towards smart, large-scale, and personalized equipment [25] - The trend towards larger machinery is driven by the increasing scale and intensification of agricultural production, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs [25]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company is a pioneer in the non-road wide-body dump truck sector, with a solid industry position and a focus on large-scale, electric, and unmanned vehicles driving demand for mining truck replacements [6][7]. - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of 6.145 billion yuan in 2024 and 6.961 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9% and 13.3% respectively [2][6]. - The report highlights the significant market potential for electric and unmanned mining trucks, with the market for new energy wide-body dump trucks expected to grow from 1.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.2 billion yuan in 2028, representing a CAGR of 45.7% [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2005, is the first in China to develop and manufacture non-road wide-body dump trucks, with products widely used in various mining and large engineering projects [6][16]. - The company has maintained a high revenue growth rate, with a CAGR of 22.4% for revenue and 24.15% for net profit from 2020 to 2024 [26]. 2. Market Trends - The trend towards larger, electric, and unmanned vehicles is reshaping the industry, driven by policy changes and economic efficiency [6][37]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for new energy and unmanned mining trucks is expected to increase, with the market for unmanned mining trucks projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2030 [9][56]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 868 million yuan, 963 million yuan, and 1.087 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][7]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will reach 69.61 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.3% [7][8]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in the non-road wide-body dump truck market, with a focus on R&D and collaboration with key partners [6][22]. - The report notes that the company's wide-body dump trucks have a lower unit weight cost compared to traditional mining trucks, making them a more economical choice for mining operations [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a pioneer in the non-road wide-body dump truck sector, focusing on large-scale, electric, and unmanned vehicles, which are driving the demand for mining trucks [6][14]. - The company has a strong market position and is expected to benefit from the trends of large-scale, electrification, and automation in the mining industry, with significant growth in revenue and net profit projected for the coming years [6][7][22]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 6,145 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 6,961, reflecting a growth rate of 13.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 793 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 29.0%. By 2025, it is expected to increase to 868 million yuan, a growth of 9.4% [2]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.79 yuan in 2024 and 1.88 yuan in 2025 [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 21.4% in 2024 to 23.1% in 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of August 13, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 23.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8,064 million yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.3 and a dividend yield of 3.02% [3]. Industry Trends - The demand for non-road wide-body dump trucks is expected to grow significantly, with the market size for electric wide-body dump trucks projected to increase from 1.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.2 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.7% [6][9]. - The report highlights that the transition to electric and unmanned mining trucks is becoming a necessity due to economic benefits and policy support, with the market for unmanned mining trucks expected to grow significantly in the coming years [6][9][49]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2005 and is recognized as the first in China to develop and manufacture non-road wide-body dump trucks, with a strong focus on research and development [6][14]. - The company has established partnerships with key players in the industry, such as Yikong Zhijia, to enhance its product offerings and market reach [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The titanium industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a focus on high-quality development and overcoming existing shortcomings to enhance its global competitiveness [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's titanium industry is expected to maintain a steady development trend, with continuous growth in titanium product output [2]. - The total titanium concentrate production in the first two months of 2024 reached 1.887 million tons, with imports at 879,000 tons and consumption at 2.165 million tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.6%, 26.2%, and 4.5% respectively [2]. - The sponge titanium production was 41,000 tons, with an export volume of 1,000 tons and a consumption of 40,900 tons, showing year-on-year growth of 12.8%, 28.6%, and 11.7% respectively [2]. Regional Insights - Shaanxi Province is identified as a major hub for titanium production in China, with a significant influence on the international market [2][3]. - The city of Baoji is highlighted as the largest titanium and rare metal materials research and production base in China, with over 700 titanium enterprises producing more than 300 varieties and 5,000 specifications of titanium products [3]. Production and Consumption Trends - The titanium material production in Baoji is projected to be approximately 75,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 65% of China's total and over 33% of the global output [3]. - The titanium and new materials industry cluster in Baoji is expected to achieve an output value of 56 billion yuan [3]. Technological Advancements - The titanium industry is accelerating the localization and modernization of large equipment, with significant advancements in smelting, forging, and rolling technologies [4][5]. - The production of sponge titanium is projected to reach 256,000 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, achieving nearly 100% self-sufficiency [4]. Market Dynamics - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for sponge titanium production since the 14th Five-Year Plan is approximately 22%, while titanium processing material production has a CAGR of 7.7% [4]. - The consumption of titanium materials is expected to reach around 150,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of about 7.5% since the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The industry is urged to enhance collaboration and reduce internal competition, focusing on vertical integration and resource optimization to improve overall efficiency [6][7]. - The need for innovation and the development of new products to meet high-performance titanium alloy demands in high-end manufacturing is emphasized [4][7]. Future Outlook - The industry is encouraged to actively participate in the formulation of relevant standards and to strategically plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan to achieve higher levels of high-end, intelligent, and green development [8].