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【电新公用环保】持续看好风电整机环节,关注光伏“防内卷”后续政策——电新公用环保行业周报20250629(殷中枢)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-30 13:10
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 整体观点: 1、风电:风电整机售价趋于稳定、机组大型化及零部件降本将推动整机环节26年盈利持续改善。136号文 重塑新能源装机逻辑,因风电出力曲线较优,风电开发及电站销售有望回暖。短期内6月风电招标及2季度 业绩或将承压,我们认为市场已逐步消化以上问题,后续相关指标改善的预期正逐步形成。 风险提示: 新能源政策风险;出口贸易政策风险;电网投资不及预期;新技术发展不及预期风险;原材料 价格波动风险。 发布日期: 2025-06-29 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所(以下简称"光大证券研究所")依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称 ...
风电整机专家访谈
2025-06-26 14:09
风电整机专家访谈 20250625 摘要 2025 年风电整机价格整体上浮 5-10%,主要受益于招标态势良好、主 机厂商对质量问题更加重视以及 136 号文促使业主倾向于购买优质风机, 同时海外市场和自建电站的突破也缓解了国内市场竞争压力。 风电行业未来将回归理性,更加注重风机质量、发电量和服务,大型化 速度放缓,南方市场运输成本高,北方市场质量问题频发,预计 2026 年招标量仍保持高位,且海外市场体量快速增长。 风电整机行业面临大型化过程中的质量问题,导致主机厂商承担大量 QCP 费用,影响盈利性。136 号文对电站收益产生负面影响,业主更倾 向于选择优质风机,大型化速度放缓,运输难度和成本增加。 2025 年预计整体招标量在 170-180GW 水平,不包括无项目支撑的框 架招标。大规模集中招标仍然存在,尤其是在新疆、内蒙古等地的大型 项目中,能够发挥规模化优势,降低成本。 2025 年风电交付量预计在 120GW 左右,吊装量或并网量预计在 100GW 以上。基于行业经验,2025 年的招标量约 40%将在当年消耗, 其余 60%将在 2026 年消耗,因此 2026 年的交付体量至少在 100GW ...
一拖股份20250608
2025-06-09 01:42
Summary of Yituo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yituo Co., Ltd. (一拖股份) - **Industry**: Agricultural Machinery Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Yituo announced a buyback of 10% of its Hong Kong-listed shares and increased its dividend payout ratio to over 5%, indicating strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, which is expected to positively impact stock prices and boost investor confidence [2][3] - The company has a net cash position of nearly 8 billion, significantly exceeding its market capitalization, suggesting sustainability in high dividend payouts [3] Market Demand Indicators - Grain prices are a crucial leading indicator for agricultural machinery demand, with expectations of a rebound in grain prices during the third quarter of 2024, which will enhance machinery demand [2][4] - The agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy is expected to drive the high-end product trend, although it may temporarily affect gross margins [2][6] Overseas Expansion - Yituo is actively expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where there is significant room for market share growth. It is anticipated that overseas business will see substantial growth in the next two to three years [2][9] Industry Cycle and Profitability - The company and the industry are currently at the bottom of the operating cycle, with expectations for stock performance to improve post-earnings release and shareholder return enhancements [3][4] - Despite a 10% decline in profits in the first quarter of 2025 due to decreased demand, the company is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 15% in the coming years [4][41] Product Trends and Market Dynamics - The trend towards larger and higher-end agricultural machinery is evident, with the proportion of large tractors (over 100 horsepower) increasing from less than 10% to 23% by 2024 [6][28] - The introduction of high-end power-shift products may have a short-term negative impact on gross margins but is expected to improve overall operational performance in the long run [7][31] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges in managing inventory and pricing strategies due to fluctuating demand and market conditions, particularly in 2024 [16][19] - The high-standard farmland construction initiative is expected to significantly boost demand for large tractors, with government subsidies increasing the attractiveness of such projects [28][29] Competitive Landscape - The agricultural machinery market is highly competitive, with domestic leaders like Wode Agricultural Machinery and the impact of the upcoming listing of Weichai Lovol, which may create investment opportunities [11][12] - Yituo's market share in overseas regions is currently between 6% and 8%, with significant potential for growth in Southeast Asia and Africa [36][37] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a slight decline in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, but significant growth is anticipated in the third quarter, with overall net profit projected to decrease by 5% for the year [41] - The agricultural machinery market is expected to stabilize, with signs of a bottoming cycle and improvements in grain prices anticipated by early 2026 [41] Additional Important Insights - The relationship between grain prices and agricultural machinery demand is strong, with machinery demand typically lagging behind grain price movements by one to two harvest seasons [4][23] - The company is implementing management incentives to align executive performance with shareholder interests, which includes a significant compensation structure for executives [21][22]
强化协同创新 我国钛产业向高端化突围
钛金属是航空航天、海洋工程、医疗及3C工业的关键材料,在国家经济建设、国防科技工业、民生保 障等领域均发挥着不可替代的作用。"当前,我国已经成为钛生产大国和消费大国,就钛产业综合竞争 实力而言,位于全球领先地位,但就高质量发展而言,亟须弥补短板,加快构建高质量发展的新格局、 新优势。"近日,中国有色金属工业协会党委书记、会长葛红林在2025年钛锆铪钒分会年会暨钛谷产业 发展大会上如是说。 葛红林介绍,今年1-2月,我国钛产业总体保持稳中有进的生产态势。钛精矿产量188.7万吨,进口量 87.9万吨,消费量216.5万吨,同比分别增长3.6%,26.2%,4.5%;海绵钛产量4.1万吨、出口量为0.1万 吨,消费量4.09万吨,同比分别增长12.8%、28.6%、11.7%。 陕西省政协副主席、党组成员,陕西省钛及钛合金产业链链长杨冠军指出,陕西省是我国钛产业大省、 全国最大的钛及钛合金材料生产基地,产业规模长期保持国内领先地位。"陕西钛在国际上具有重要影 响力,钛金属加工产业规模居全球第一。"杨冠军表示,宝鸡以青铜器而名,因钛工业而兴,是我国最 大的钛及稀有金属材料科研生产基地,也是全球最大的钛产业发展集聚区 ...
日月股份:铸件龙头,受益于风电装机高增&大型化发展-20250511
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 12:23
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 经营承压稳产,扩能增效迎增长。2024 年公司毛利率同比略微下降主要 受风机招标价格的持续低迷以及风电全面实现平价上网影响,风电产业链 产品销售价格的普遍下降,随新项目的投产,资产折旧和摊销成本也相应 地有所增加。2025 年风电装机量提升,公司 2025 年预计出货量将有提 升,受益于铸件提价,公司参与的铸件环节有望打开较大盈利空间。公司 2024 年铸件收入 46.2 亿元,同比+0.05%,毛利率 17.31%,同比-1.17pct。 铸件产量 49.2 万吨,销量 49 万吨,订单状况总体平稳,产销基本平衡。 2024 年底公司已经形成了年产 70 万吨铸造产能规模,42 万吨精加工产 能规模,灵活调整铸造产能利用率,优化精加工产能布局,与外协加工产 能协调共进、优势互补,构建"一体化交付"产业链。 大型化风机升级驱动,多元市场拓增量。随风力发电技术的不断进步以及 海上风力发电产业的蓬勃发展,风力发电机组的功率呈现大型化趋势,促 使风力发电主轴向大型化发展。大型风力发电机具有更高发电效率,进而 有助于降低单位电 ...
日月股份(603218):铸件龙头,受益于风电装机高增、大型化发展
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 12:18
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 日月股份(603218.SH) 铸件龙头,受益于风电装机高增&大型化发展 事件:公司发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年全年 实现:1)营收 46.96 亿元,同比+0.87%;归母净利润 6.24 亿元,同比 +29.55%;扣非归母净利润 3.33 亿元,同比-21.57%。2)毛利率 17.34%, 同比-1.33pct;净利率 13.11%,同比+2.83pct。3)期间费用率为 7.97% (销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 0.35%、4.01%、4.84%、-1.23%, 同比分别变动-0.51pct,+0.22pct,-0.71pct,+1pct),同比基本不变。2025 年 Q1 实现:1)营收 13 亿元,同比+86.41%;归母净利润 1.21 亿元, 同比+39.14%;扣非净利润为 1.05 亿元,同比+49.42%。2)毛利率 15.53%,同比-6.24pcts;净利率 9.03%,同比-3.25pcts。 经营承压稳产,扩能增效迎增长。2024 年公司毛利 ...
新强联(300850) - 300850新强联投资者关系管理信息20250508
2025-05-08 10:52
投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-005 | | ☑特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | ☑现场参观 | | | 其他(电话会议) | | 参与单位名称及 | 国联安基金:李阳东;宝盈基金:李巍宇、王灏、温济鹏;华 安基金:孔涛;鹏华基金:黄奕彬;金鹰基金:汪达;华西证 | | 人员姓名 | 券:董远、王好尚 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 8 日 14:00—15:00 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长:肖争强 | | 员姓名 | 董事会秘书、财务总监、副总经理:寇丛梅 | | 投资者关系活动 | 1、公司向下游客户交付产品后,确认收入情况如何? | | | 公司按照客户要求,将产品运输至客户指定地点,并经客 | | | 户签收确认后,按照合同约定的单价及产品数量确认收入。 | | | 2、公司 2025 年第二季度的排产情况如何?技改项目进展 | | | 怎样? | | 主要内容介绍 | 公司 2025 年第二季度排产情况紧凑,产能利 ...
电力设备及新能源行业之风电支撑基础专题报告:纵横逸气宁称力,驰骋长途定出群
Dongguan Securities· 2025-04-29 02:27
深 度 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业 超配(维持) 电力设备及新能源行业之风电支撑基础专题报告 纵横逸气宁称力,驰骋长途定出群 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息,关于信息的准确性与完整性,建议投资者谨慎判断,据此入市,风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 2025 年 4 月 29 日 投资要点: 分析师:刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号: S0340522050001 电话:0769-22119416 邮箱:liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn 分析师:苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号: S0340523080001 电话:0769-22110925 邮箱:suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源:东莞证券研究所,iFinD 风力发电系统支撑结构持续优化。风机大型化趋势要求提升塔筒高 度,传统钢塔难以满足风电产业对经济性的要求。同时,为实现高 度和稳定性的提升,塔筒类型由传统钢塔向多种技术路径方向转变。 与传统钢塔相比,钢混塔筒以其稳定性更强、承载力更强、性价比 更高等优势,逐步获得市场认可,2023年国内使用钢混塔筒的装机 量达到7.3GW,同比增长209%,未来混塔有望逐 ...
福斯达2024年及2025一季度业绩大增,海内外双市场并重效果显著
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-22 03:54
Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with operating revenue of 2.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 261 million yuan, up 36.63% [2][3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 594 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 69.04%, and a net profit of 116 million yuan, increasing by 76.26% [2][3] - The primary driver of this performance is the company's dual-market strategy, focusing on both domestic and international markets, with a notable expansion in overseas operations [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's overseas revenue reached 946 million yuan, accounting for 39.09% of total revenue, with an overseas gross margin of 33.11%, significantly higher than the domestic gross margin of 17.10% [2][3] - The total gross profit from overseas operations was 313 million yuan, representing 55.38% of the company's total gross profit [2] Market Strategy - The company has customized solutions for different regions and clients, enhancing customer loyalty and satisfaction, which has increased client retention [2] - The company is responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative by expanding into traditional markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea [2] Domestic Market Response - The company is also actively addressing the increasingly competitive domestic market by enhancing brand awareness and focusing on high-end market segments [3] - The petrochemical industry is the largest segment of the company's domestic orders, benefiting from ongoing structural adjustments and new project developments in the industry [3] Technological Development - The company has accumulated significant technological expertise, supporting the trends of energy efficiency, large-scale, and modularization in deep cooling equipment [4][5] - The company has secured orders for large-scale air separation units and is advancing research on ultra-large air separation units and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) units [5] Order Backlog and Production Capacity - The company has a robust order backlog, with approximately 4 billion yuan in orders for 2024, ensuring sustained performance [7] - The company operates four production bases, with the new "Hangzhou Bay Terminal Factory" enhancing delivery capabilities for large equipment due to its strategic location [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on deep cooling technology, enhancing product development and manufacturing capabilities, and strengthening partnerships with mid-to-high-end clients globally [7]
四大趋势值得关注!ESIE 2025储能设计与解决方案论坛:电池技术、系统集成、构网型储能、数智化技术
中关村储能产业技术联盟· 2025-04-03 13:23
文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 2024年,储能产业依然保持高速增长态势。 全球 新增新型储能装机容量达到 177.8GWh ,同比增长62%。 中国 新型电力系统建设加速,全年新增新型储能装机超 100GWh ,同 比增长 136% ,在全球市场中的份额达到 62% (以能量规模计)。 四大 趋 势值得关 注 ! 1、储能电芯大型化! 储能电芯容量已从30 0Ah+走向5 0 0Ah+、600Ah+,甚至出现超千安时 的电芯。 | 主持人:赵智勇 内蒙古电力集团电科院高级工程师 | | | --- | --- | | 09:00 - 09:20 | 构网型储能技术支撑内蒙古新型电力系统建设的应用探索 | | | 曹 斌 内蒙古大青山实验室有限公司董事长 | | 09:20 - 09:40 | 因网制直 守护电网安全稳定 | | | 张 敏 阳光电源股份有限公司大客户解决方案总经理 | | 09:40 - 10:00 | 构网型储能技术与应用 | | | 刘为群 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司副总工程师 | | 10:00 - 10:20 | 智能组串式构网型储能技术的研究与应用 | | | 杨 志 华为数字能源技 ...