中盛期货 股指、黄金周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 股指基本面数据 中盛期货 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 国内外宏观经济数据 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 2025年12月官方制造业PMI上升至50.1（前值49.2），时隔8个月重回扩张区间，工业 生产明显加快，需求边际改善。12月CPI同比上涨0.8%（前值0.7%），PPI同比下降 0.9%，降幅较上月收窄0.3个百分点。 中盛期货 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 企业盈利 资金面 "反内卷"政策的效果逐渐显现，新能源、有色金属、煤炭等大宗商品价格反弹，PPI 同比降幅收窄，有助于上游原材料加工利润改善。 利率 流动性 沪深两市融资余额上升至26031.43亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展1387亿7天 期逆回购操作，实现净回笼16550亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 中盛期货研究 中盛期货 黄金基本面数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Core Insights - The October data from the China Futures Association indicates a decline in trading volume but an increase in trading value, reflecting mixed market conditions [1][2] - The overall trend for the first ten months shows growth in trading volume and value across various sectors, highlighting a robust futures market [2][3] Trading Volume and Value - In October, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 603 million contracts and a trading value of 61.22 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.26% in volume but an increase of 4.54% in value [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the trading volume reached 7.347 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 60.884 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 14.86% and 21.82%, respectively [1] Exchange Performance - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a cumulative trading volume of 1.853 billion contracts and a trading value of 19.324 trillion yuan, with a slight volume decrease of 0.37% but a value increase of 16.2% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange both showed significant growth in trading volume and value, with the former achieving a volume increase of 15.64% and the latter 15.9% [1] Sector Analysis - The precious metals sector, including futures and options, saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 55%, respectively [2] - The financial futures and options sector also experienced robust growth, with volume and value increasing by over 25% and 43%, indicating heightened risk management needs [2] Market Trends and Predictions - The overall commodity market showed a strong performance in October, with notable price increases in coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while some products like caustic soda and glass performed weaker [3] - Looking ahead to November, expectations are for a significant rebound in trading volume, with projections suggesting that the total trading volume and value for the year could exceed 8.8 billion contracts and 73 trillion yuan, potentially setting new historical records [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has undergone a long process of deleveraging since 2021, following the severe impact of the pandemic in 2020, leading to a state of economic stagnation characterized by conservatism among enterprises, financial constraints for households, and tight local government finances [1] Group 1 - The past five years have been challenging for the general population, marked by phenomena such as internal competition, cost reduction, deflation, and economic decline [1] - Signs of change are emerging, particularly indicated by the prices of bulk commodities, suggesting that while the economy has not fully recovered, there are nascent signs of hope [1]