1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and unremarkable improvement in corporate earnings, the stock index has a need for adjustment after continuous rise; with the upcoming adjustment of the benchmark commodity index weight and the upgrade of precious metal trading supervision, gold is in a high - level shock, and it is necessary to be vigilant against adjustments caused by the emergence of profit - taking selling pressure [35] - In the medium and long - term, the valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in the corporate earnings growth rate at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index maintains a wide - range shock idea in the medium term; the stimulating effect of the US tax - cut policy on the economy will gradually appear, the room for the Fed to cut interest rates further in the future is narrowing, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [35] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 (previous value 49.2), returning to the expansion range after 8 months, with industrial production accelerating significantly and demand improving marginally. In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), and the year - on - year decline of PPI was 0.9%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [6] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The effect of the "anti - involution" policy is gradually emerging. Commodity prices such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, which helps to improve the profits of upstream raw material processing [12] - The margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 2603.143 billion yuan, hitting a new record high. The central bank carried out a total of 138.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1655 billion yuan [15] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The number of new ADP jobs in the US in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTs job openings in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that the US labor market is slowly recovering and concerns about weak employment have eased [20][21] 3.4 Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory increased, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York increased slightly, reflecting an increase in physical delivery demand [33] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, industrial production accelerated significantly, and demand improved marginally, but the downward pressure on external demand remained large, and the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises was still weak. CPI has risen for three consecutive months year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand and prices and a relief of downward pressure on industrial products [35] - In terms of corporate earnings, driven by the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies, the prices of commodities such as new energy and non - ferrous metals have risen, which helps to repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries; however, the operating pressure of downstream enterprises is still large, some industries have over - capacity, and production costs are difficult to be passed on to end - consumers, and they are still in the stage of active inventory reduction [35] - The central bank's work conference in 2026 emphasized increasing the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Recently, the policy side has continuously released positive signals, and the market's expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year has increased, which helps to improve risk appetite [35] - The military strike launched by the US against Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday has caused turmoil in the international geopolitical situation. After the holiday, the rise in the gold price is mainly driven by risk - aversion sentiment. Recently, the market is worried that the annual weight adjustment of the commodity benchmark index may lead to passive selling of gold and silver, and some funds have taken profits in advance. In addition, the CME has continuously raised the performance margin for precious metals, which helps to suppress excessive speculation and reduce irrational fluctuations [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Core Insights - The October data from the China Futures Association indicates a decline in trading volume but an increase in trading value, reflecting mixed market conditions [1][2] - The overall trend for the first ten months shows growth in trading volume and value across various sectors, highlighting a robust futures market [2][3] Trading Volume and Value - In October, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 603 million contracts and a trading value of 61.22 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.26% in volume but an increase of 4.54% in value [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the trading volume reached 7.347 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 60.884 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 14.86% and 21.82%, respectively [1] Exchange Performance - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a cumulative trading volume of 1.853 billion contracts and a trading value of 19.324 trillion yuan, with a slight volume decrease of 0.37% but a value increase of 16.2% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange both showed significant growth in trading volume and value, with the former achieving a volume increase of 15.64% and the latter 15.9% [1] Sector Analysis - The precious metals sector, including futures and options, saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 55%, respectively [2] - The financial futures and options sector also experienced robust growth, with volume and value increasing by over 25% and 43%, indicating heightened risk management needs [2] Market Trends and Predictions - The overall commodity market showed a strong performance in October, with notable price increases in coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while some products like caustic soda and glass performed weaker [3] - Looking ahead to November, expectations are for a significant rebound in trading volume, with projections suggesting that the total trading volume and value for the year could exceed 8.8 billion contracts and 73 trillion yuan, potentially setting new historical records [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has undergone a long process of deleveraging since 2021, following the severe impact of the pandemic in 2020, leading to a state of economic stagnation characterized by conservatism among enterprises, financial constraints for households, and tight local government finances [1] Group 1 - The past five years have been challenging for the general population, marked by phenomena such as internal competition, cost reduction, deflation, and economic decline [1] - Signs of change are emerging, particularly indicated by the prices of bulk commodities, suggesting that while the economy has not fully recovered, there are nascent signs of hope [1]