Core Insights - The October data from the China Futures Association indicates a decline in trading volume but an increase in trading value, reflecting mixed market conditions [1][2] - The overall trend for the first ten months shows growth in trading volume and value across various sectors, highlighting a robust futures market [2][3] Trading Volume and Value - In October, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 603 million contracts and a trading value of 61.22 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.26% in volume but an increase of 4.54% in value [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the trading volume reached 7.347 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 60.884 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 14.86% and 21.82%, respectively [1] Exchange Performance - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a cumulative trading volume of 1.853 billion contracts and a trading value of 19.324 trillion yuan, with a slight volume decrease of 0.37% but a value increase of 16.2% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange both showed significant growth in trading volume and value, with the former achieving a volume increase of 15.64% and the latter 15.9% [1] Sector Analysis - The precious metals sector, including futures and options, saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 55%, respectively [2] - The financial futures and options sector also experienced robust growth, with volume and value increasing by over 25% and 43%, indicating heightened risk management needs [2] Market Trends and Predictions - The overall commodity market showed a strong performance in October, with notable price increases in coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while some products like caustic soda and glass performed weaker [3] - Looking ahead to November, expectations are for a significant rebound in trading volume, with projections suggesting that the total trading volume and value for the year could exceed 8.8 billion contracts and 73 trillion yuan, potentially setting new historical records [3]

自从2020年经济被疫情重创，2021年主动去杠杆开始，中国经济经历了一个长期的去泡沫过程，企业保 守，居民缺钱，地方财政紧绷，整个社会进入了一种"失速"的沉寂状态。过去的这5年里，大家过得普 遍都很难受，内卷、降本、通缩、下跌，现在情况正在悄然改变了。首先发出信号的便是大宗商品的价 格，经济虽未彻底回暖，但希望已悄然萌芽。 ...