第一章 综合分析与交易策略 大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡为主 第二章 基本面数据 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：大宗商品强势反弹，尿素震荡 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：需求低迷，尿素回落 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价大幅领跌，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价大幅下跌，市场情绪表现一般，工 业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，低 价成交尚可，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价暂稳，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交乏力，待发充裕， 预计出厂报价暂稳为主。交割区周边区域出厂价跟跌，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区追肥结束，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商 和贸易商出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看：部分装置检修，日均产量降至19万吨附近，仍位于同期最高水平。需求端， ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar has led to a collective rebound in commodity prices, particularly in precious and base metals, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US GDP final value and new home sales data released on Thursday were both weak, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 27% probability for July and 84% for September [1]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, breaking below the 98 mark, which triggered a broad rebound in the commodity market [1][3]. Group 2: Commodity Market Reactions - The decline in the dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive, with gold prices rising above $3,300 per ounce [3]. - Copper prices on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 0.3% to 78,820 RMB per ton, with similar gains observed in the London market for copper and other base metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel [5]. - Analysts predict that this commodity rebound may just be beginning, with a shift in Federal Reserve policy and further dollar depreciation expected to provide stronger upward momentum for commodities [5]. Group 3: Factors Behind Dollar Weakness - The dollar index's decline is attributed to two main factors: the strong rebound of the euro and the continuous weakness in US macroeconomic data [6][8]. - The euro strengthened due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran and a historic agreement among NATO members to significantly increase defense spending, injecting new momentum into the European economy [7]. - Weak US economic data, particularly a sharp drop in new home sales, has heightened concerns about an economic slowdown, prompting investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path [8]. Group 4: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold prices have shown resilience, rebounding from the $3,300 per ounce support level, with short-term upside potential limited to around $3,500 per ounce, while downside risks remain contained between $3,100 and $3,200 per ounce [9]. - Silver has outperformed, with a consistent supply deficit of about 8% over the past three years, and prices are expected to rise from the current $39.5 per ounce to between $42.8 and $44.7 per ounce [10]. Group 5: Base Metals Outlook - The weakness of the dollar has provided significant price support for base metals, with copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel all experiencing price increases [11]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will average $9,890 per ton by late 2025, driven by tariff policies and demand growth, with potential supply tightening further supporting prices [11].