证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：春节后复工节奏偏缓，下游需求温和复苏 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 2 月 27 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2416.76 元/吨，环比变化-43.73 元/吨（-1.78%）；国 外重点大炼化项目价差为 1132.37 元/吨，环比变化+26.59 元/吨 （+2.41%）。截 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The demand for long filament in the market has significantly decreased as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2479.13 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -41.35 CNY/ton (-1.64%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1110.81 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +3.54 CNY/ton (+0.32%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 68.66 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of +1.97% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have influenced oil prices, with fluctuations observed throughout the week [2] - As of February 13, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are 67.75 USD/barrel and 62.89 USD/barrel, respectively, showing a decrease from the previous week [15] - Domestic refined oil prices show slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6234.14 CNY/ton, 7614.29 CNY/ton, and 5037.19 CNY/ton, respectively [15] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices have generally declined, with polyolefins experiencing price fluctuations [2] - The polyester sector anticipates a quick recovery in production post-holiday, with PX and PTA prices increasing [2] - The nylon market shows an upward trend in pricing due to strong cost support [2] Price Changes of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for major refining companies as of February 13, 2026, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.83%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.61%), and Tongkun Co. (+8.07%) [2]

【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯&锦纶板块】 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The domestic key refining project price difference as of January 23, 2026, is 2516.27 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 43.98 CNY/ton (+1.78%) [2] - The international key refining project price difference is 1147.20 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 47.75 CNY/ton (+4.34%) [2] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price is 64.56 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of +0.10% [2] - The report highlights that the oil price fluctuated due to various geopolitical factors and economic forecasts, with Brent and WTI prices at 65.88 and 61.07 USD/barrel respectively on January 23, 2026 [15] - The report notes a decrease in operating rates for filament production as the market approaches the Spring Festival, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report indicates that the refining sector experienced price fluctuations due to geopolitical events and economic forecasts, with Brent crude prices increasing by 1.75 USD/barrel and WTI by 1.63 USD/barrel from January 16 to January 23, 2026 [15] - Domestic refined oil prices showed a slight decline, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6277.29 CNY/ton, 7508.57 CNY/ton, and 5214.52 CNY/ton respectively [15] - The report lists stock price changes for six major private refining companies, with notable increases for Rongsheng Petrochemical (+17.87%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+11.47%) over the past week [2] Chemical Sector - The report notes that the cost support for chemical products remains stable, with price differences for polyolefins showing fluctuations [2] - EVA prices increased to 10364.29 CNY/ton, with a price difference of 7064.47 CNY/ton [53] - Pure benzene prices rose to 5685.71 CNY/ton, driven by strong demand from styrene [53]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the reduction in production of polyester filament supports the upward movement of product prices [1]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials are tracked, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2474.39 CNY/ton, a decrease of 21.68 CNY/ton (-0.87%) week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1105.24 CNY/ton, down by 57.47 CNY/ton (-4.94%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's weekly average price is reported at 64.50 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, which have influenced oil prices. Initially, oil prices rose due to these tensions, but later eased as the situation in Iran stabilized and Venezuelan oil exports resumed [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have shown a slight decline, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6334.57 CNY (-70.71), 7526.14 CNY (-25.43), and 5246.79 CNY (-11.79) per ton respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical products' prices have generally increased due to strong cost support. Polyethylene prices are fluctuating, while polypropylene prices are rising due to reduced supply pressure from increased maintenance [2][43]. - EVA prices have significantly increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, leading to improved price differentials [2][43]. - Benzene prices have risen, but the price differential remains stable, while styrene prices have increased due to strong overseas demand and declining inventory [2][43]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - In the polyester segment, cost support remains strong, but weak demand in the textile sector has led to a slight increase in PX prices. The overall operating rate has decreased due to maintenance and production cuts in filament plants, resulting in price increases driven by supply-side support [2][43].

Core Insights - The report highlights the price differentials of key refining projects in both domestic and international markets, indicating a slight increase in domestic price differentials and a more significant increase in international price differentials [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price shows a slight decline, reflecting market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors and economic data [2] Refining Sector - As of November 7, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2327.79 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 18.00 CNY/ton (+0.78%); the international key refining project price differential is 1361.85 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 56.54 CNY/ton (+4.33%) [1][2] - Brent crude oil's average weekly price is 64.23 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.45% [1][2] - The refining sector is experiencing mixed signals due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and OPEC+ production decisions, leading to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector shows overall weak supply and demand, with cost declines not resulting in significant price differential improvements [3] - Polyolefin prices are fluctuating, while pure benzene and styrene prices are slightly declining, leading to narrowed price differentials [3] - Polyester filament yarn market shows slight upward movement due to stable supply, but overall purchasing willingness remains low due to weak downstream demand [3] Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 7, 2025, stock price changes for six major private refining companies include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+5.99%), Hengli Petrochemical (+8.02%), Dongfang Shenghong (+2.71%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-0.73%), Tongkun Co. (+6.82%), and Xin Fengming (+6.17%) [4] - Over the past month, stock price changes include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+11.92%), Hengli Petrochemical (+13.13%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.53%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.20%), Tongkun Co. (+1.20%), and Xin Fengming (+3.88%) [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the tracking of price differentials for key refining projects, with domestic price differential at 2327.79 CNY/ton and international price differential at 1361.85 CNY/ton as of November 7, showing increases of 0.78% and 4.33% respectively [1][2] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price was reported at 64.23 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% [1][2] - The report indicates that the refining sector experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, with a slight increase in oil prices supported by OPEC+ decisions, but later faced downward pressure from strong dollar performance and rising U.S. crude oil inventories [2] Group 2 - In the chemical sector, overall supply and demand remained weak, with cost declines not leading to significant improvements in price differentials for various chemical products [3] - Specific products like pure benzene and styrene saw price declines and narrowing differentials due to weak demand, while MMA prices continued to weaken significantly [3] - Polyester and nylon sectors showed mixed performance, with polyester filament prices slightly increasing due to supply support, but overall purchasing sentiment remained low due to weak upstream market conditions [3] Group 3 - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed varied results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical experiencing notable increases of 5.99% and 8.02% respectively over the week [4] - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical also led with increases of 11.92% and 13.13% respectively, while other companies showed mixed results [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [134]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the demand for inventory before the holiday is weak, leading to a decline in refining product prices [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending May 30, 2025, was $64.47 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% [1][2]. - Domestic refining project price differentials have increased, with a domestic key refining project price differential of 2492.60 CNY/ton, up by 2.04% week-on-week [1][2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in production for July, which is pressuring prices, while geopolitical tensions continue to create volatility in oil prices [1]. - As of May 30, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $63.90 and $60.79 per barrel, respectively, showing a decline from the previous week [1][14]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly increased, while overseas refined oil prices have generally declined [1]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is experiencing weak cost support and supply-demand dynamics, leading to price declines across various products [1]. - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have shown a downward trend, with average prices for LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE at 9057.14, 7032.14, and 8014.29 CNY/ton, respectively [1][53]. - The market for EVA remains weak, with prices decreasing to an average of 11500.00 CNY/ton [1][65]. Polyester Sector - The PX price has slightly increased due to a rise in PTA demand, with the current PX CFR China main port average price at 6026.19 CNY/ton [1][86]. - MEG prices have decreased slightly, with the current average price at 4512.86 CNY/ton [1][89]. - The average price for PTA is currently 4909.29 CNY/ton, with an industry average profit margin of -132.88 CNY/ton [1][91]. Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major refining companies as of May 30, 2025, shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 0.11% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 4.82% over the past week [1][121]. - Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased by 5.98%, while Dongfang Shenghong has decreased by 2.75% [1][121].