新华社北京12月31日电 题：金价飙涨中的世界经济趋势观察 新华社记者邓茜 通过数据分析，本轮金价从2019年下半年逐步开启上行通道，当年涨幅约为18%；2020年至2023年 间，国际金价多次突破2000美元，在此期间正是新冠疫情全球蔓延、世界经济遭受冲击、地缘政治局势 紧张、美联储实行量化宽松之际。从年度涨幅来看，2020年和2024年国际金价涨幅均超过25%。进入 2025年，金价一骑绝尘，3月突破3000美元，10月突破4000美元，并于年末再创新高，逼近4600美元。 在黄金行情带动下，其他贵金属价格也水涨船高，国际白银期价一度突破每盎司80美元，年内上涨 约150%。铂金期货价格飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。此外，铜价年内持续上涨， 累计涨幅接近40%，站稳历史高位。 参照历史轨迹，2025年金价飙涨，显示出全球避险情绪浓重，经济信心不足。但从多家国际机构预 测来看，2025年和2026年全球经济增速并未显著放缓。分析认为，当前世界经济重大风险主要来源于美 国挑起关税战造成的全球贸易局势紧张以及地缘冲突等因素。 多重因素助推金价涨势 黄金成为近年表现亮眼的投资品类，不仅反映出全球 ...

贸易风险也在发酵，据新华社报道，美国威胁对欧盟在美企业进行反制，美国贸易代表办公室16日表示，如果欧盟坚持"继续限制、削弱和阻碍"美国服务 供应商的竞争力，美方"将不得不开始动用一切可用手段进行反制"。 12月17日，白银突然暴涨，截至发稿，现货白银涨逾3%，最高涨破66美元。黄金也随之拉涨，截至发稿，现货黄金涨逾0.5%。 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 65.729 | 昨结 | 63.718 | 总量 | | 0 | | +2.010 | +3.16% 开盘 | 63.743 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 66.006 | 1972 仓 | 0 | 2 | | 0 | | 最低价 63.645 | 国 仓 | 0 内 | | | 0 | | 分时 五日 | HK 間K | | 月K | 東 | 0 | | 章加 | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 66.006 | | | 3.59% 卖- | 65.764 65.729 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has led to a significant price increase, with the market showing a strong upward trend despite potential risks from geopolitical factors and supply chain disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, palladium futures opened significantly higher, reaching a peak of 409.85 yuan and a low of 368.05 yuan, with a price increase of 2.97% [1]. - The current palladium futures market is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating robust market performance [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Short-term palladium supply remains tight, with inventories at multi-year lows, and geopolitical risks, particularly from Russia, which accounts for over 40% of global supply, continue to pose challenges [1]. - The demand for palladium is influenced by the automotive sector's shift towards electrification, which may impact palladium's demand compared to platinum [2]. - Despite a general slowdown in demand due to high palladium prices, favorable factors such as low inventory and potential investment inflows are expected to support prices in the short term [2]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - The price of palladium is projected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the performance of other precious metals like gold and silver, which have seen significant price increases this year [2]. - However, the long-term outlook for high palladium prices may be challenged by declining industrial demand and the overall trend of reduced demand for gasoline vehicles [2].

Core Insights - The demand for commercial loans from large and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S. has significantly increased in Q3 compared to the same period last year, marking the largest growth in nearly three years, while small businesses' loan demand remained stable [1][2] - Despite the increase in loan demand, banks are tightening credit conditions across various types of enterprises, although the tightening is less severe than earlier in the year [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may be undermined by the tightening of loan standards, complicating efforts to support economic growth and the job market [1] Group 1: Loan Demand Trends - The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicates a substantial rise in loan demand from large and medium-sized enterprises, while small businesses show little change [1] - The improvement in loan demand is attributed to a reduction in trade uncertainties following preliminary trade agreements between the U.S. and major trading partners, including China [2] Group 2: Credit Conditions - Banks are still cautious about lending to enterprises with significant trade exposure, indicating a preference for approving loans to businesses with lower trade risks [2] - The tightening of credit conditions may limit overall credit growth in the U.S., despite the improved demand for loans [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with market participants uncertain about future rate cuts, particularly in 2026, amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is regaining growth momentum, with a notable improvement in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching a 17-month high of 52.2, despite concerns over political instability in France and weaker data from Germany [3][10]. - The inflation rate is hovering near the ECB's target, and the current interest rates are considered to be on a neutral trajectory, which has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in Eurozone economic activity [3]. Market Expectations - The probability of the ECB restarting a rate cut cycle in 2026 has decreased to slightly below 50%, as traders reassess their positions following recent economic developments and statements from President Trump regarding trade agreements with China [2]. - MUFG's economist Cook maintains a forecast for further monetary easing by the ECB in 2026, citing potential fiscal stimulus from Germany and ongoing global trade uncertainties as factors that could keep inflation below the ECB's target [2][10]. Future Outlook - The ECB's upcoming meeting is anticipated to be a "low-key monetary policy meeting," focusing on inflation risk assessments and the implications of forthcoming economic data releases, including the preliminary GDP figures for Q3 and inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone [3]. - Cook predicts that the ECB may consider reinitiating rate cuts if inflation remains below the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of weakness, particularly in the context of a stronger Euro impacting import prices [10].

Core Insights - The Asia-Pacific region remains the fastest-growing area globally, but rising tariffs and protectionism may lead to reduced exports and ultimately impact economic activity [1] - The IMF projects Asia's GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in 2024, with a further slowdown to 4.1% by 2026 [1] - Trade policy uncertainty, although decreased since April, remains high and could severely affect investment and market sentiment [1] Economic Projections - Strong export growth in Asia is expected to be driven by pre-purchase activities ahead of tariff increases and a recovery in the technology cycle [1] - Domestic demand is anticipated to remain robust due to loose policies and the global environment [1] Policy Recommendations - The IMF urges Asian policymakers to stimulate domestic demand, particularly consumption, and enhance productivity [1] - Short-term recommendations include targeted fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of trade shocks [1]

Group 1 - Global traders are betting on the Federal Reserve implementing at least one unconventional rate cut by the end of the year, shifting from a gradual easing expectation to a more aggressive policy adjustment to address potential economic pressures [1][3] - Market funds are increasingly flowing into positions targeting the Fed's November or December policy meetings, with a clear core bet on a "single rate cut of 50 basis points," indicating a concentrated betting strategy rather than scattered trades [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, creating a "data vacuum," but market behavior has already anticipated future data, which may reveal weaknesses in U.S. economic growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The recent escalation of global trade tensions, including tariff policy adjustments and supply chain restructuring rumors, has heightened concerns about U.S. exports and manufacturing, potentially suppressing economic recovery and increasing the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a slightly bullish positioning in light of economic data uncertainty and trade disruptions, as excessive caution may lead to missed opportunities for potential gains [4] - The "data blindness" caused by the U.S. government shutdown is affecting global policymakers, complicating their ability to assess external environments and increasing the risk of policy misjudgments in major economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and the UK [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal mining sector in A-shares is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major companies like Dayou Energy and China Coal Energy seeing substantial gains, while the coking coal prices remain stable post-National Day holiday [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The coal mining sector has shown strong performance, with Dayou Energy rising over 7% and China Coal Energy increasing over 4% [1]. - Coking coal prices in Shanxi region have remained stable, with the mainstream ex-factory price for primary dry coke at 1520-1590 RMB/ton as of October 15, unchanged from the beginning of the month [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Trade Issues - A customs system failure in Mongolia led to a significant drop in the number of vehicles passing through the Ganqimaodu port, decreasing to 759 vehicles, which is a 33.80% reduction compared to the average post-holiday traffic [1]. - The customs system has since been restored, and traffic is expected to return to over 1,000 vehicles [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Dayou Futures, the cost support for coking enterprises has strengthened, and steel mills are maintaining high production levels, indicating resilient demand. However, weak performance in the end-product market has led to inventory accumulation, limiting steel mills' procurement of coking coal [2]. - Zhongcai Futures notes a slight deterioration in the overall supply-demand relationship, with increased imports from Mongolia potentially exerting price pressure. Additionally, rising trade tensions, including a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods by the U.S., are expected to negatively impact market sentiment [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge in price, reaching a high of $51.69 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outpacing gold's 50% rise [2][4]. Market Dynamics - Silver faced a short squeeze in the London market, with prices nearing $52 per ounce and a peak increase of 3.1%, surpassing last week's high [4]. - Concerns over liquidity in the London market have intensified, pushing silver closer to its record high of $52.50 per ounce set in 1980 [4]. - The benchmark price in London has surged significantly above that of the New York exchange, prompting traders to arrange costly air freight for silver bars to exploit the price difference [4]. Borrowing Costs - The borrowing rate for silver in London has skyrocketed to over 30% for one-month terms, significantly increasing costs for those attempting to roll over short positions [4]. - Similar tightening in borrowing rates has been observed for gold and palladium, indicating a broader strain on silver and gold reserves in London [4]. Analyst Insights - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that the silver market is less liquid, being about one-ninth the size of the gold market, which amplifies price volatility [5]. - The absence of central bank purchases to anchor silver prices could lead to disproportionate corrections if investment funds withdraw, reversing the current upward trend driven by tight conditions in London [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, which indirectly benefits silver [5]. - Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. government's investigation into key minerals, including silver, which raises concerns about potential new tariffs and adds to market tension [5].