(华宝泰金 车站头E 0 联接A 017140 联接C 017141 规模突破 宏观驱动 战略安全 黄金 稀土、钨、锡 美联储降息带来货币竞公 全球博弈指景下 地缘扰动引发理险需求 战略量能强势 全球各国共同期待 政策护航 供需格局 铜、铝等工业金属 锂、钻、镍 新兴产业需求释放+ BE FREAD PACE FING MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：张恒星 ...

| 【宏观驱动】 | 黄金 | 美联储降息预期+地缘扰动引发避险需求+央行增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【战略安全】 | 稀土、钨、锑 | 战略金属受益于全球博弈 | | 【政策护航】 | 锂、钴、镖 | "反内卷"逻辑影响,板块迎来估值修复 | | 【供需格局】 | 铜、铝等工业金属 | 新兴产业需求释放+供给增量有限,供需紧平衡 | 【未来产业"金属心脏"，现代工业"黄金血液"】 今日（9月25日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大 涨，场内涨幅盘中上探2.7%，现涨1.8%。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上 涨55.21%，大幅跑赢沪指（24.45%）、沪深300（27.21%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，铜业龙头显著领涨！中证有色金属指数涨幅前6大成份股均为铜业龙头，其中，北方铜业 盘中触板，洛阳钼业涨超8%，铜陵有色、江西铜业涨逾6%。值得关注的是，截至发稿，洛阳钼业获主 力资金净流入超11亿元，霸居A股吸金榜首位！ 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Cambricon's stock price and market valuation reflects a broader market reassessment of domestic chip companies amid geopolitical tensions and national policies supporting AI and semiconductor industries [2][3]. Company Summary - Cambricon's stock price reached a peak of 1438 yuan per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new "king of stocks" [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering increase of 4347.82% compared to 64.76 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Despite the impressive financial report, Cambricon has faced significant losses in previous years and relies heavily on a few large government and enterprise clients, raising concerns about its business model's resilience [5]. Industry Summary - The current valuation of domestic chip companies like Cambricon is influenced by national strategies aimed at reducing reliance on foreign technology and enhancing strategic security [3]. - The AI chip market is characterized by high capital requirements and significant challenges in commercializing technology, making it a "burning money" game [6]. - The industry faces a substantial gap in advanced manufacturing capabilities, particularly in critical equipment like photolithography machines, compounded by U.S. export controls that limit performance improvements [7]. - Building a robust software ecosystem is crucial for hardware success, as exemplified by NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, which presents a formidable barrier for new entrants [7]. - The Chinese AI chip industry, represented by companies like Cambricon, is at a critical juncture filled with uncertainties and challenges, necessitating a focus on sustainable growth rather than merely optimistic projections [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Cambricon's stock price and market valuation reflects a broader market reassessment of domestic chip companies amid geopolitical tensions and national policies promoting AI and semiconductor industries [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Cambricon reported a significant revenue increase of 4347.82%, reaching 2.881 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to 64.76 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Despite the impressive financial report, Cambricon has faced substantial losses in previous years, indicating a volatile financial history [2][3]. - The company's business model heavily relies on a few major government and enterprise clients, raising concerns about its risk management capabilities [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The global competition in the semiconductor industry has intensified, with the U.S. implementing the CHIPS and Science Act and China responding with various AI industry promotion policies [1]. - The domestic chip industry, including Cambricon, faces significant challenges in commercializing technology, particularly in achieving scale and building ecological barriers against established players like NVIDIA [3]. - The development of AI chips is characterized as a "money-burning" game, requiring continuous investment to catch up with international technology leaders, compounded by export controls from the U.S. that limit performance improvements [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese AI chip industry, represented by companies like Cambricon, is at a critical juncture filled with uncertainties and challenges, emphasizing the need for sustainable business models over grand narratives of explosive growth [4]. - Building a robust software ecosystem is essential for hardware success, as seen with NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, which presents a significant barrier for new entrants [3].

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison Holdings (长和), has decided to invite mainland Chinese strategic investors to join a consortium to take over its global port assets after a 145-day negotiation period with BlackRock-TiL ended [1][3] - The Chinese government had previously warned that the transaction parties must not evade antitrust reviews and must not implement concentration without approval, indicating a strong stance on maintaining national interests [3][5] - China COSCO Shipping Group (中远集团) is seeking to join the consortium, demanding equal shareholder status and a veto right in decisions related to Chinese shipping operations, which reflects a strategic move to protect national interests while ensuring commercial development [3][5] Group 2 - Li Ka-shing's shift is seen as a calculated risk hedge against geopolitical pressures, particularly concerning the Panama Canal, which handles 6% of global maritime trade and has faced U.S. security-related threats [5][7] - The introduction of Chinese capital is intended to demonstrate neutrality to both the U.S. and China, potentially providing operational flexibility for CK Hutchison while mitigating risks associated with U.S. sanctions [5][7] - The involvement of COSCO is strategically significant as it aims to safeguard shipping routes and counteract U.S. efforts to control port operations, thereby preserving China's energy and food supply chains [5][7] Group 3 - The deal's complexity is heightened by the need for approval across 12 global jurisdictions, with China's stance being a critical variable in the antitrust review process [7] - BlackRock's willingness to allow Chinese participation is a pragmatic approach to avoid the collapse of the transaction, as it still seeks to benefit from long-term operational gains through port management [7] - By integrating Chinese investment, CK Hutchison not only mitigates potential backlash regarding national interests but also retains commercial collaboration opportunities, while simultaneously reallocating funds towards technology and renewable energy sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic value of rare earth materials is increasingly highlighted amid the global reshaping of supply chains, with China transitioning from a resource supplier to a rule-maker and technology controller in the rare earth sector [3][6]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China currently holds 92% of the global rare earth refining capacity and over 80% of deep processing technology patents, establishing a complete and efficient industrial chain with significant technical barriers [6][13]. - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations in April 2025 signifies a systematic upgrade in China's resource security strategy, altering Western perceptions of unlimited supply from China [5][6]. Group 2: Global Reactions and Challenges - In response to China's tightening export controls, the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $400 million investment in MP Materials, marking a strategic move to bolster domestic rare earth production [9]. - Despite U.S. efforts, MP Materials remains significantly behind China in terms of technology and production capabilities, with costs 30%-40% higher than Chinese products [9][10]. - The EU's reliance on Chinese rare earth magnets is critical, with a dependency rate of 98%, leading to heightened tensions and political maneuvers within Europe [7][10]. Group 3: China's Countermeasures - China has adopted a more sophisticated counter-strategy, including imposing anti-dumping duties on EU brandy imports, reflecting a targeted approach to trade relations [12]. - The establishment of a rare earth traceability system aims to ensure that exported products are not used for military or prohibited purposes, reinforcing China's control over the supply chain [12][15]. - China's flexible management of rare earth applications from European companies indicates a willingness to cooperate under legitimate circumstances, while maintaining a firm strategic stance [12][15]. Group 4: Future Implications - The ongoing competition over rare earth resources is not merely about supply but represents a deeper struggle for global industrial chain dominance and strategic security [15]. - The internal divisions within the EU and the long-term technological challenges faced by the U.S. highlight the complexities of breaking free from dependence on Chinese rare earths [10][15].

Core Insights - China has initiated a special operation named "Shield" to combat the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, marking a significant enforcement action against smuggling activities [1] - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, 2025, represents a comprehensive revision aimed at addressing key issues in mineral exploration and extraction, enhancing the legal framework for resource management [3][5] Group 1: Enforcement Actions - The operation "Shield" involved customs authorities intercepting a cargo ship carrying antimony ingots disguised as industrial raw materials, highlighting China's commitment to curbing illegal mineral exports [1] - Trade data revealed that Thailand and Mexico exported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide to the U.S. within a few months, surpassing the total from the previous three years, indicating a surge in smuggling activities [1] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The revised Mineral Resources Law introduces a direct acquisition system for mining rights, resolving the challenges faced by explorers in transitioning to mining operations [3] - The law mandates that all mining operations must adhere to an ecological restoration principle, linking mining permits to the responsibility of land rehabilitation [5] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The U.S. has been actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths through initiatives like the "Critical Minerals Initiative," which aims to create alternative supply chains [3] - The legal reforms in China signal a shift in the perception of strategic minerals from ordinary commodities to critical assets in national security and international competition [7]