市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] "十五五"产业趋势篇：科技、国内大循环、战 略安全 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] "十五五"规划建议立足于"十四五"成就，衔接 2035 年远景目标，形成承前启后、接续奋 斗的发展脉络。产业布局上，"十五五"规划以科技创新为核心驱动力，激活超大规模市场潜力 打通国内大循环，将战略安全作为底线保障，实现高质量发展。1）科技创新聚焦自立自强，加 强原始创新和超前布局未来产业，构建未来发展新引擎；2）国内大循环主要通过建立全国统一 大市场与大力提振消费激活内生动力，为经济增长打下坚实的内在支撑；3）战略安全方面重点 围绕产业安全、国防安全、贸易安全三大领域构建安全屏障，国家安全体系和能力进一步加强。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 [Table_Title "十五五"产业趋势篇：科技、国内大循环、战 2] 略安全 [Table_Summary2] 科技 ...

双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度共识，一致认为要坚定维护用生命和鲜血换来的二战胜利成 果，坚决抵制任何为殖民侵略历史翻案的错误言行，坚决反击法西斯主义、日本军国主义卷土重来的图 谋，承担起中俄作为大国和联合国安理会常任理事国的共同责任，维护世界和平与安全，维护历史真相 和国际正义。（视频来源：直新闻） 绍伊古表示，当前国际地缘政治复杂演变，全球安全领域挑战增多，俄中作为全面战略协作伙伴有必要 加强战略对表。两国元首今年两次会晤，为俄中关系发展指明方向，提供动力。俄中战略协作处于史无 前例的高水平，这符合两国国家利益，有利地区和世界和平。俄中在相互尊重基础上发展双边关系，不 受外界干扰。俄方坚定恪守一个中国原则，坚决支持中方在台湾、涉藏、涉疆及香港等问题上的立场， 愿同中方一道落实两国元首共识，密切双边合作，共同推动建立更加公平合理的多极化世界。 【#中俄就涉日本问题进行战略对表#】#俄方坚定恪守一个中国原则# 据外交部网站，当地时间2025年 12月2日，中共中央政治局委员、中央外办主任王毅在莫斯科同俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书绍伊古共同主 持中俄第二十轮战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全利益的重大问题全面、深 ...

王毅表示，今年中俄关系实现高水平发展，双方围绕纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80 周年这条主线，共同开展一系列重要高层交往。特别是习近平主席和普京总统在莫斯科和北京两度会 晤，指引中俄关系在复杂变局中稳步发展，在不确定的世界中从容前行。明年是中俄战略协作伙伴关系 建立30周年和两国睦邻友好合作条约缔结25周年，是新时代中俄关系发展进程中的重要节点。双方要巩 固战略互信，深化睦邻友好，扩大互利合作，服务两国各自经济发展和民族振兴，共同应对层出不穷的 新威胁与新挑战，更好维护世界公平正义与和平稳定。 王毅说，中俄战略安全磋商机制是两国就事关国际安全和战略稳定的重大问题深入沟通的重要渠道，也 是为维护中俄核心利益开展战略协调的重要平台。机制成立20年来，为落实两国元首重要共识、服务两 国战略决策、增进双方政治互信作出积极努力，发挥了重要作用。当前形势下这一机制的价值和意义更 加凸显，双方要继续发挥好机制作用，加强战略沟通协作，共同应对外部挑战。 绍伊古表示，当前国际地缘政治复杂演变，全球安全领域挑战增多，俄中作为全面战略协作伙伴有必要 加强战略对表。两国元首今年两次会晤，为俄中关系发展指明方向，提供动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that gold is expected to continue its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate together [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Factors - The trend of de-globalization and strategic security demands may continue to support the long-term increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets [1] - Changes expected by 2025 will raise the requirements for physical gold inventory construction in regional markets, which may already be reflected in the tightening liquidity of the gold market observed this year [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - Economic growth pressures in the U.S. may persist into the first half of next year, with the Federal Reserve having restarted interest rate cuts in September and potentially ending balance sheet reduction by year-end [1] - The ongoing liquidity easing cycle is expected to provide support for investment demand in gold ETFs and other assets, although a shift towards recovery trading may require some time [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing restructuring of order may not completely dissipate, further supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Russia's recent decision to independently establish a complete rare earth industry chain, investing 700 billion rubles, amidst growing global concerns over China's control of the rare earth market and the geopolitical implications of such dependencies [1][10]. Group 1: Russia's Rare Earth Strategy - Russia plans to invest 700 billion rubles to create a full rare earth industry chain, from mining to downstream applications, with Defense Minister Shoigu overseeing the project [1][10]. - Russia possesses significant rare earth resources, with reserves close to 16 million tons, including 15% of global reserves located in Siberia, which could sustain mining for decades [3]. - The shift from potential cooperation with China to independent development is influenced by historical reliance on imports and changing international dynamics [4][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The relationship between the U.S. and Russia plays a crucial role, as past negotiations for joint development of Arctic rare earth resources failed due to differing strategic interests [6]. - U.S. sanctions and restrictions on rare earth technology exports have further pushed Russia to abandon collaboration with the U.S. [8]. - Russia's focus on strategic security is paramount, as rare earth elements are essential for advanced military technology, and reliance on foreign sources poses risks to national defense [8][10]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Russia has initiated the construction of its first rare earth processing plant in Siberia, expected to be operational by 2026, with a processing capacity of 50,000 tons annually, meeting about 70% of domestic demand [12]. - The complexity of rare earth refining technology and potential environmental issues present significant challenges for Russia in achieving self-sufficiency [12][14]. - The global competition for resources is shifting from mere possession to control over the entire industry chain, highlighting the importance of mastering core technologies [14].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors on various commodities, highlighting the strategic importance of metals like gold, rare earths, tungsten, and tin in the context of global geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts [3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Drivers - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are leading to increased monetary competition among countries, which is expected to influence commodity prices [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances are driving demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, as countries navigate through global uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for industrial metals such as copper and aluminum is evolving, with emerging industries expected to release significant demand for lithium, diamonds, and nickel [3]. - There is a collective expectation among global nations for policy support to stabilize and enhance the supply-demand balance in the commodities market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Cambricon's stock price and market valuation reflects a broader market reassessment of domestic chip companies amid geopolitical tensions and national policies supporting AI and semiconductor industries [2][3]. Company Summary - Cambricon's stock price reached a peak of 1438 yuan per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new "king of stocks" [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering increase of 4347.82% compared to 64.76 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Despite the impressive financial report, Cambricon has faced significant losses in previous years and relies heavily on a few large government and enterprise clients, raising concerns about its business model's resilience [5]. Industry Summary - The current valuation of domestic chip companies like Cambricon is influenced by national strategies aimed at reducing reliance on foreign technology and enhancing strategic security [3]. - The AI chip market is characterized by high capital requirements and significant challenges in commercializing technology, making it a "burning money" game [6]. - The industry faces a substantial gap in advanced manufacturing capabilities, particularly in critical equipment like photolithography machines, compounded by U.S. export controls that limit performance improvements [7]. - Building a robust software ecosystem is crucial for hardware success, as exemplified by NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, which presents a formidable barrier for new entrants [7]. - The Chinese AI chip industry, represented by companies like Cambricon, is at a critical juncture filled with uncertainties and challenges, necessitating a focus on sustainable growth rather than merely optimistic projections [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Cambricon's stock price and market valuation reflects a broader market reassessment of domestic chip companies amid geopolitical tensions and national policies promoting AI and semiconductor industries [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Cambricon reported a significant revenue increase of 4347.82%, reaching 2.881 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to 64.76 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Despite the impressive financial report, Cambricon has faced substantial losses in previous years, indicating a volatile financial history [2][3]. - The company's business model heavily relies on a few major government and enterprise clients, raising concerns about its risk management capabilities [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The global competition in the semiconductor industry has intensified, with the U.S. implementing the CHIPS and Science Act and China responding with various AI industry promotion policies [1]. - The domestic chip industry, including Cambricon, faces significant challenges in commercializing technology, particularly in achieving scale and building ecological barriers against established players like NVIDIA [3]. - The development of AI chips is characterized as a "money-burning" game, requiring continuous investment to catch up with international technology leaders, compounded by export controls from the U.S. that limit performance improvements [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese AI chip industry, represented by companies like Cambricon, is at a critical juncture filled with uncertainties and challenges, emphasizing the need for sustainable business models over grand narratives of explosive growth [4]. - Building a robust software ecosystem is essential for hardware success, as seen with NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem, which presents a significant barrier for new entrants [3].

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison Holdings (长和), has decided to invite mainland Chinese strategic investors to join a consortium to take over its global port assets after a 145-day negotiation period with BlackRock-TiL ended [1][3] - The Chinese government had previously warned that the transaction parties must not evade antitrust reviews and must not implement concentration without approval, indicating a strong stance on maintaining national interests [3][5] - China COSCO Shipping Group (中远集团) is seeking to join the consortium, demanding equal shareholder status and a veto right in decisions related to Chinese shipping operations, which reflects a strategic move to protect national interests while ensuring commercial development [3][5] Group 2 - Li Ka-shing's shift is seen as a calculated risk hedge against geopolitical pressures, particularly concerning the Panama Canal, which handles 6% of global maritime trade and has faced U.S. security-related threats [5][7] - The introduction of Chinese capital is intended to demonstrate neutrality to both the U.S. and China, potentially providing operational flexibility for CK Hutchison while mitigating risks associated with U.S. sanctions [5][7] - The involvement of COSCO is strategically significant as it aims to safeguard shipping routes and counteract U.S. efforts to control port operations, thereby preserving China's energy and food supply chains [5][7] Group 3 - The deal's complexity is heightened by the need for approval across 12 global jurisdictions, with China's stance being a critical variable in the antitrust review process [7] - BlackRock's willingness to allow Chinese participation is a pragmatic approach to avoid the collapse of the transaction, as it still seeks to benefit from long-term operational gains through port management [7] - By integrating Chinese investment, CK Hutchison not only mitigates potential backlash regarding national interests but also retains commercial collaboration opportunities, while simultaneously reallocating funds towards technology and renewable energy sectors [7]