Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality and common sense as the most critical abilities for investment managers, which help avoid significant pitfalls and maintain a long-term perspective in investment decisions [3][10]. Company Overview - Jinglin Asset Management, established in 2012, is one of the early and leading private fund managers in China, focusing on value investment and bottom-up fundamental research across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. equities [9]. Investment Philosophy - Jinglin adheres to a bottom-up investment strategy, assessing companies' long-term value with a focus on their competitive advantages, management teams, and corporate governance [6][14]. - The firm believes that truly long-term companies with pricing power and economic moats are extremely rare and should be held onto when identified [7][15]. Market Environment and Macro Research - Investment decisions should be made based on objective assessments of the macro environment, which cannot be changed by personal desires; instead, investors should adapt to existing conditions [5][12]. - The firm has shifted its focus to Chinese companies due to their lower valuations, despite macroeconomic pressures, indicating a strategic response to market conditions [20]. Research and Team Structure - Jinglin employs a unique model where fund managers share a common research platform, leading to consistent long-term performance across different managers [13]. - The firm emphasizes deep, comprehensive research, including extensive 360-degree evaluations of potential investments, involving various stakeholders [14]. International Expansion - Over the years, Jinglin has evolved from focusing solely on Chinese companies to researching industries in Asia and the U.S., enhancing its investment capabilities [17]. - Building a team capable of understanding overseas markets is crucial, as it involves grasping different business models and market dynamics [18][19]. Future Outlook - The private equity industry in China is expected to undergo consolidation, with a focus on quality over quantity, leading to the emergence of a few trusted firms over time [24]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to remain active, with increasing participation from international investors, which could provide better opportunities for Chinese companies [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has shown steady growth in total assets, reaching 19.75 trillion Norwegian Krone (NOK) by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.3% [2][3][9]. - Investment returns for 2024 amounted to 2.51 trillion NOK, with a return rate of 13.1%, which is 0.45 percentage points lower than the benchmark index [2][4][11]. - The fund's asset allocation remains focused on a 70:30 ratio of equities to fixed income, with equities increasing to 71.4% and fixed income decreasing to 26.6% [3][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - As of the end of 2024, GPFG's total assets reached 19.75 trillion NOK, an increase of 3.99 trillion NOK from the previous year, driven primarily by capital inflows, investment returns, and currency fluctuations [2][9]. - The fund's investment strategy continues to focus on a 70:30 equity-to-bond ratio, with equities making up 71.4% and fixed income 26.6% of the portfolio [3][20]. Investment Performance - In 2024, GPFG achieved a record investment return of 2.51 trillion NOK, with a return rate of 13.1%, while the compound annual growth rate since 1998 stands at 6.3% [4][11]. - The performance of different asset classes showed equities yielding 18.2%, fixed income at 1.3%, while real estate and renewable infrastructure investments returned -0.6% and -9.8%, respectively [4][11][23]. - The underperformance relative to the benchmark was attributed to a reduction in technology stocks and poor performance in real assets [11][23]. Investment Outlook - GPFG is unlikely to include private equity investments in the short term due to the negative stance of the Norwegian Ministry of Finance [5][26]. - The fund plans to merge its equity and real assets departments into an active strategies department starting January 1, 2025, to enhance investment management capabilities [5][28]. - GPFG has proposed to exclude small-cap stocks from emerging markets in its benchmark index to simplify management and reduce costs [5][29]. - The fund is also seeking to divest 3.2 billion NOK in Russian assets, which have been frozen since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [5][30].