期货从业资格号 F03123381 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.30」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给偏多库存高位，碳酸锂或承压运行 研究员:王福辉 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线震荡偏弱。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅-1.9%，振幅4.82%。主力合约报价59800元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国财政部：去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市 场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增强。碳酸锂基本面，原料端，海外矿商挺价情绪仍在，由于出货压力以及 受碳酸锂价格拖累而定价不断走弱，但较碳酸锂现货降幅偏小。供给方面，由于锂矿端报价下跌速度较现货缓慢，冶 炼厂成本支撑开始走弱，加之由于碳酸锂价格快速下行，冶炼厂遭受成本利润倒挂的影响，令减产检修情况逐渐增加。 进出口方面，智利出口至中国碳酸锂呈现量价双降态势，预计该批次陆续到港后国内亦将出现进口量及价格双降情况。 需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market may face pressure due to stable supply and weak demand. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand [6]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum and light - position oscillating transactions for the main contract of alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.42%, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 6.53%, closing at 2,962 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, there is uncertainty about the Fed's policy. Domestically, the economy is showing positive signs. Fundamentally, there may be a slight reduction in bauxite supply. Alumina supply may slightly decrease, while demand remains stable. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively sufficient, and demand is in a transition from peak to off - season, with a controllable decline [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,175 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from May 23. As of May 29, 2025, the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,450.5 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton (- 1.01%) from May 22 [10]. - **Position Volume**: As of May 30, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai aluminum was 514,908 lots, down 3,005 lots (- 0.58%) from May 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 7,950 lots from May 23 [13]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of May 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from May 23. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from May 23 [19]. - **Spot Prices**: As of May 30, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,240 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (- 0.78%) from May 23. The spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, down 13,825 tons (- 3.55%) from May 21. As of May 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,433 tons, down 16,856 tons (- 11.93%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 482,000 tons, down 37,000 tons (- 7.13%) from May 22 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [29]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 3,081 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan/ton (- 4.38%) from May 23. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The import volume was 107,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%. The export volume was 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.33% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The export volume was 13,700 tons. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 34,200 tons. In April 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 375,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 1.4793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum products was 576,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.1117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%, and the export volume was 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: In April 2025, the output of aluminum alloys was 152,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import volume was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%. The export volume was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 367,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.22%, and the export volume was 70,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous month and an increase of 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37% [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%. The automobile production volume was 2,618,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be in a state where supply is sufficient and demand is relatively stable. The Fed's decision - making is affected by uncertainties, while China's economic indicators are improving. The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is likely to increase steadily, and the demand is stable due to the offset of seasonal consumption decline by domestic policies and trade recovery [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.24% and an amplitude of 1.41%. The closing price of the main contract was 77,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **International and Domestic Situations**: Abroad, the Fed's policy decision - making is uncertain; in China, economic indicators are improving, and debt sustainability is enhanced [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is relatively stable [4]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillating trading with attention to risk control [5] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 365 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 430 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 77,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton, and the position was 172,994 lots, a week - on - week increase of 20,589 lots [10]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. The premium of Shanghai copper bills of lading decreased, and the long - position held an advantage. The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 101 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [14][21]. - **Option Market**: As of May 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of the Shanghai copper option position was 1.1701, a decrease of 0.0943 from last week [26] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas weakened, and the processing fee for blister copper strengthened. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [29]. - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth of 22.2% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,493.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [34]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.969 million tons, an increase of 202,000 tons from February, a growth of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 147,000 tons from the previous period [39] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from March, a growth of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 10.39%. As of March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.426 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons from February, a growth of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [42]. - **Supply - Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 300,181.941 tons, a decrease of 54,093.53 tons from March, a decline of 15.27% and a year - on - year decline of 1.83%. The import profit and loss amount was - 606.91 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 657.24 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 12,350 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 4,870 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 722 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 139,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [55] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products Production and Imports**: As of April 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.081 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons from March, a decline of 2.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from March, a decline of 6.38% and a year - on - year decline of 0% [61]. - **Application - Power Grid and Appliance Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 1.6% and 14.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.6%, 1.6%, - 10.7%, - 15.3%, and - 9.8% year - on - year respectively [65]. - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of April 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 277.2957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 39.32%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 15.089 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 37.84% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of March 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 20,500 tons [75]

Report Date - Morning Express on May 27, 2025 [1] Hot News - China's government implemented a package of macro - economic control policies since Q4 last year, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium - and long - term debt sustainability. Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating stability reflects the positive outlook of China's economy. A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work together for high - quality economic development [2] - The increase in freight demand has pushed up the prices in the US - bound shipping market. Many shipping companies announced rate hikes for Asia - to - US routes, with a maximum increase of $3000 for 40 - foot containers [2] - Since Q2, local governments have accelerated the use of special bonds to acquire land. As of now, nearly 3000 idle land parcels with a total area of over 133 million square meters and a total value of over 350 billion yuan are planned to be acquired using special bonds [2] - As of May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period [2] - The EU plans to speed up trade negotiations with the US. After a phone call between EU Commission President von der Leyen and Trump, Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU by more than a month to July 9 for further negotiations [2] Key Areas of Concern - Pulp, coke, glass, gold, and Shanghai gold futures [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials: 2.67% [3] - Precious metals: 30.94% [3] - Oilseeds and oils: 11.82% [3] - Soft commodities: 2.46% [3] - Non - ferrous metals: 18.91% [3] - Coal, coke, steel, and minerals: 13.36% [3] - Energy: 2.55% [3] - Chemicals: 12.92% [3] - Grains: 1.62% [3] - Agricultural and sideline products: 2.74% [3] Sector Holdings - Data shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector holdings from May 20 to May 26, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily change - 0.05%, monthly change 2.07%, annual change - 0.15% [5] - SSE 50 Index: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 2.52%, annual change 0.55% [5] - CSI 300 Index: daily change - 0.57%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change - 1.90% [5] - CSI 500 Index: daily change 0.29%, monthly change 0.67%, annual change - 0.98% [5] - S&P 500: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 4.20%, annual change - 1.34% [5] - Hang Seng Index: daily change - 1.35%, monthly change 5.26%, annual change 16.06% [5] - German DAX: daily change 1.68%, monthly change 6.80%, annual change 20.69% [5] - Nikkei 225: daily change 1.00%, monthly change 4.12%, annual change - 5.92% [5] - UK FTSE 100: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.63%, annual change 6.67% [5] Fixed - Income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 0.13%, annual change - 0.06% [5] - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.01%, monthly change - 0.04%, annual change - 0.45% [5] - 2 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.03%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change - 0.53% [5] Commodities - CRB Commodity Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.73%, annual change - 0.02% [5] - WTI crude oil: daily change 0.08%, monthly change 5.83%, annual change - 14.38% [5] - London spot gold: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 1.64%, annual change 27.36% [5] - LME copper: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 5.36%, annual change 9.48% [5] - Wind Commodity Index: daily change - 0.45%, monthly change 0.36%, annual change 16.67% [5] Others - US Dollar Index: daily change - 0.15%, monthly change - 0.66%, annual change - 8.76% [5] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 9.76%, annual change 28.47% [5]