Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The主力10 contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The freight rates of major airlines in August are showing a weekly decline. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rates this year may be weaker in the off - season. It is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the freight rates on most routes continued to decline. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner, and the trade volume with the EU in the first 7 months of 2025 increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. The freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European line futures contracts on August 12th is provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has declined for four consecutive weeks. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, indicating a lack of willingness to support prices. Considering the large impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, with large - container quotes concentrated at $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 from the end of July. The freight rate is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Historically, the peak usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rate in late August generally returns to the early - July level. Attention should be paid to the speed of freight rate decline and tariff negotiations. Due to the impact of tariffs on foreign trade and high shipping capacity supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season. Consider short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spreads between December and October contracts [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 28 to August 1, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with weakening demand and a slight decline in the composite index. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by exports. On August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a tariff agreement with a 15% tariff rate. The EU will increase purchases of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The shipping demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, down 1.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks, and the suspension of 24% of US tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU, down 2.2% and 7.5% respectively from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing $750 billion of US energy products and US military equipment [10]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From August 4 to July 28, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a decline of 0.8%. The SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a decline of 12.0% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The trading data of multiple contracts on August 6 are provided, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Various charts are provided to show the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, and shipping - related price trends [13][17][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - **Israeli Ports**: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - **Trade Policies**: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai export container settlement price index for European routes reached 1622.81 points, an increase of 29.5% compared to the previous period [1] - Mysteel reported a total iron ore shipment of 35.104 million tons, an increase of 794,000 tons month-on-month, with Australia and Brazil contributing 29.194 million tons, an increase of 506,000 tons, and Australia alone contributing 21.699 million tons, an increase of 2.493 million tons [1] - The National Reserve announced a competitive bidding transaction for the storage of 10,000 tons of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season to be 169.27 million tons, with estimates ranging from 168.25 to 171 million tons, slightly above USDA's previous estimate of 169 million tons [2] - In Argentina, soybean production for the same period is estimated at 4.904 million tons, with a range of 4.8 to 5 million tons, consistent with USDA's prior estimate [2] - As of last Thursday, farmers in Brazil's central-southern region had harvested 1.9% of the second-season corn crop, the slowest pace since 2021, compared to 10% at the same time last year [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark price for aluminum alloy futures contracts, with prices set at 18,365 yuan per ton for contracts AD2511, AD2512, AD2601, AD2602, AD2603, AD2604, and AD2605 [3]

Report Date - Morning Express on May 27, 2025 [1] Hot News - China's government implemented a package of macro - economic control policies since Q4 last year, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium - and long - term debt sustainability. Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating stability reflects the positive outlook of China's economy. A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work together for high - quality economic development [2] - The increase in freight demand has pushed up the prices in the US - bound shipping market. Many shipping companies announced rate hikes for Asia - to - US routes, with a maximum increase of $3000 for 40 - foot containers [2] - Since Q2, local governments have accelerated the use of special bonds to acquire land. As of now, nearly 3000 idle land parcels with a total area of over 133 million square meters and a total value of over 350 billion yuan are planned to be acquired using special bonds [2] - As of May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period [2] - The EU plans to speed up trade negotiations with the US. After a phone call between EU Commission President von der Leyen and Trump, Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU by more than a month to July 9 for further negotiations [2] Key Areas of Concern - Pulp, coke, glass, gold, and Shanghai gold futures [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials: 2.67% [3] - Precious metals: 30.94% [3] - Oilseeds and oils: 11.82% [3] - Soft commodities: 2.46% [3] - Non - ferrous metals: 18.91% [3] - Coal, coke, steel, and minerals: 13.36% [3] - Energy: 2.55% [3] - Chemicals: 12.92% [3] - Grains: 1.62% [3] - Agricultural and sideline products: 2.74% [3] Sector Holdings - Data shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector holdings from May 20 to May 26, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily change - 0.05%, monthly change 2.07%, annual change - 0.15% [5] - SSE 50 Index: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 2.52%, annual change 0.55% [5] - CSI 300 Index: daily change - 0.57%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change - 1.90% [5] - CSI 500 Index: daily change 0.29%, monthly change 0.67%, annual change - 0.98% [5] - S&P 500: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 4.20%, annual change - 1.34% [5] - Hang Seng Index: daily change - 1.35%, monthly change 5.26%, annual change 16.06% [5] - German DAX: daily change 1.68%, monthly change 6.80%, annual change 20.69% [5] - Nikkei 225: daily change 1.00%, monthly change 4.12%, annual change - 5.92% [5] - UK FTSE 100: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.63%, annual change 6.67% [5] Fixed - Income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 0.13%, annual change - 0.06% [5] - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.01%, monthly change - 0.04%, annual change - 0.45% [5] - 2 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.03%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change - 0.53% [5] Commodities - CRB Commodity Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.73%, annual change - 0.02% [5] - WTI crude oil: daily change 0.08%, monthly change 5.83%, annual change - 14.38% [5] - London spot gold: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 1.64%, annual change 27.36% [5] - LME copper: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 5.36%, annual change 9.48% [5] - Wind Commodity Index: daily change - 0.45%, monthly change 0.36%, annual change 16.67% [5] Others - US Dollar Index: daily change - 0.15%, monthly change - 0.66%, annual change - 8.76% [5] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 9.76%, annual change 28.47% [5]