1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tin market is currently in a deep contradiction between improved supply expectations and weak physical demand. In the short - term, the high inventory pressure will likely cause the price center to gradually decline [1]. - The micro - trading sentiment in the market is cooling rapidly from fanaticism to extreme wait - and - see. The market is at risk of a downward correction to test the core support level [3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The tin market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The strong PMI data in the US in February increased inflation pressure and made the Fed's interest - rate cut path uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also affected the market [1]. - The supply - demand balance in the industry is weakening. The expected resumption of tin mining in Myanmar, the recovery of Indonesian exports, and the resumption of production by domestic smelters in March are increasing supply. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement demand [1]. - High inventory levels in both domestic and LME markets verify the weak demand. Domestic social inventory has climbed above 13,000 tons, and LME inventory is approaching 7,800 tons [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions on rallies. Aggressive investors can short near the strong resistance level of 430,000 yuan/ton [10]. - Options strategy: Selling wide - straddle options (such as selling deep out - of - the - money call and put options) is recommended to profit from the time - value decay in a volatile and stalemate market [10]. - Arbitrage strategy: Focus on inter - period reverse arbitrage (buy far - month contracts and sell near - month contracts) [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai tin main - contract futures near 460,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2604C call options when the volatility is appropriate [11]. - For raw - material management: When the raw - material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai tin main - contract futures near 400,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2604P put options when the volatility is appropriate [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: Strong US PMI data in February, stable low - level processing fees for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan, and the implementation of a pumping - fee sharing mechanism in Myanmar's deep - mine caves [12]. - **Negative information**: Continuous accumulation of domestic tin ingot inventory, deep losses in tin ingot imports and exports, and the US plan to restrict the global shipment of unapproved AI chips [12]. - **Spot transaction information**: Prices of various tin - related products have declined to varying degrees [13][14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of February's social financing scale and new RMB loan data in early March, and continuous tracking of the turning point of domestic photovoltaic cell and component production data [14]. - **International**: The release of the US February unadjusted CPI annual rate and core inflation data on March 11, and the Fed's FOMC interest - rate decision and Powell's press conference from March 18 - 19 [14]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Tin futures data**: The prices of Shanghai tin and London tin have declined significantly this week. The Shanghai - London ratio has increased by 7.86% [15]. - **Inventory data**: Shanghai tin inventory has increased by 11.25%, LME tin inventory has increased by 2.64%, and social inventory has decreased by 1.13% [15]. 3.3.2 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: The weighted tin - price contract closed at 393,600 yuan/ton this week, and profitable positions are mainly long in net positions [16]. - **Basis and monthly - spread structure**: The domestic term structure is a C - structure this week, and LME tin has changed from a spot premium to a discount [19][24]. 3.3.3 Internal - External Price - Difference Tracking - Tin import losses have increased by 9.75%, and the processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore have increased by 14.95% and 20.49% respectively [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The smelting - end processing fees remain at a low level, and downstream processing enterprises are increasingly reluctant to buy at high prices [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of refined tin in Yunnan and the overall production of refined tin in China are presented in a seasonal pattern. The production of recycled refined tin also shows a certain seasonal characteristic [34]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The monthly starting rate of SMM tin - solder enterprises and the monthly apparent consumption of tin ingots in China show seasonal patterns [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the 2605 contract of rebar declined by 2.54%. In mid-February, the key steel enterprises produced 20.29 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.029 million tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous period. Their steel inventory reached 18.12 million tons, a 19.9% increase from the previous decade, and a 28.2% increase from the beginning of the year. In January 2026, the global crude steel output of 69 countries/regions was 1.473 billion tons, a 6.5% year-on-year decrease, with China's output at 75.27 million tons, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease. In February 2026, the PMI of the Hebei steel industry was 48.8%, a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom-bust line. After the Lantern Festival, the output of rebar will rise. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors such as the escalation of the US-Iran situation, optimistic policy expectations of domestic important meetings, cost support, and post-Lantern Festival demand tests. The recommended strategies for single-side trading, arbitrage, and options are all to wait and see [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K-line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price analysis is provided [7]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 28, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, also unchanged [14]. - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. Important Market Information - As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 8.9%, a 1.5 percentage point increase year-on-year; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a 3.7 percentage point increase year-on-year; and the fund availability rate was 29%, a 9.4 percentage point increase year-on-year. The resumption rate of real estate projects was 8.2%, and that of non-real estate projects was 9.2% [19]. Supply - Side Situation - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the rebar output are mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24][25]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, a 4% decrease from the previous period; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 47.1, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. Information on commercial housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion floor areas, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume is also presented, but no specific analysis is provided [31]. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.93 percentage point increase year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a 1.05 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.87 percentage point increase year-on-year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 1.30 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 10.39 percentage point decrease year-on-year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a 27,900 - ton increase from the previous week and a 53,400 - ton increase year-on-year [38][39]. 后市展望 - After the Lantern Festival, independent electric arc furnace steel mills will resume production, and rebar output will increase. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors [40]. Operation Strategy - Single - side trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [41].

Group 1 - The digital asset market experienced significant volatility as the first complete trading week of 2026 began, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 3% to around $92,500, erasing some recent gains and triggering about $680 million in liquidations, predominantly from long positions totaling $600 million [1][4][5] - The current upward momentum in Bitcoin is viewed as fragile, primarily driven by short squeezes rather than healthy inflows of spot capital, with on-chain data indicating a slowdown in selling by long-term holders [1][4][5] - The altcoin market, including assets like SOL and SUI, saw declines ranging from 6.7% to 10%, reinforcing the notion that leveraged-driven rallies are often unsustainable without substantial improvements in spot demand [5] Group 2 - A subtle shift in capital flows is occurring, with risk assets being sold off while safe-haven assets like gold are being favored, as international gold prices surged to $4,600 due to macroeconomic headlines such as tariff policies [2][5] - The current market consolidation is perceived as a continuation of a bear market rebound rather than a confirmation of a reversal, with Bitcoin remaining highly sensitive to liquidity until it can effectively break through the critical resistance level of $101,000 [2][5] - Investors are advised to monitor whether spot buying can stabilize around the support level of $90,000 to mitigate potential market volatility caused by high leverage [2][5]

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, with a drop of up to 7%, falling from a historical high of $93 per ounce to $88.3 per ounce, highlighting the "short squeeze" risk in the market [1] - The current "open interest" in the silver market is approximately 590 million ounces, while the available inventory for physical delivery is only about 50 million ounces, resulting in a coverage ratio of around 7% [1] - Analysts indicate that the silver market is under pressure as the delivery month approaches, with short positions facing potential challenges if long positions opt for actual delivery [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in silver prices are driven by two main factors: lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data for December 2025, which has led to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating tensions between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about policy stability [2] - The market is characterized by strong momentum driven by macroeconomic risks, structural tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased investment in precious metals as safe havens [2] - Analysts predict that the precious metals market will maintain a strong trend, with gold as a core safe-haven asset and silver expected to perform strongly as a gauge of market risk appetite [2] Group 3 - Expectations for silver prices in 2026 include "high volatility and upward movement," with targets above $100 per ounce due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from strategic industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The re-evaluation of silver's strategic resource value, combined with expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, is expected to enhance silver's price elasticity and volatility [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are anticipated to attract investment for hedging against inflation, providing a premium for silver as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - Financial institutions, including UBS and Bank of America, have raised their price forecasts for silver, with UBS noting that increased trading activity in the Chinese market could drive prices higher in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts recommend a strategy of maintaining core positions in gold while tactically participating in high-volatility assets like silver, platinum, and palladium, advising caution due to their unpredictable nature [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, industrial demand, and valuation corrections, positioning silver as a strong investment option beyond just being a "shadow" of gold [1][5]. Group 1: Silver's Performance - On December 24, silver prices surged by 1,050 yuan per kilogram, averaging 17,405 yuan per kilogram, with a significant increase of 6.84% [1]. - International silver prices reached 72.189 USD per ounce, marking a 1.03% increase and hitting a historical high of 72.701 USD per ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has seen a cumulative increase of 150%, significantly outperforming gold's 72% rise [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Surge - The surge in silver is driven by three main factors: macroeconomic uncertainty, industrial demand, and valuation recovery [1]. - Global economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations have increased the demand for silver as a dual-purpose asset, serving both as an inflation hedge and an industrial metal [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is growing, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where each gigawatt of solar capacity requires approximately 10 tons of silver, and in electronics, where silver is essential for components in 5G devices and electric vehicles [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The gold-silver ratio has improved from 104:1 to 64:1, indicating that silver has become relatively cheaper compared to gold, attracting more investment [3]. - Historically, when the gold-silver ratio falls below 50:1, silver prices tend to peak, suggesting that there is still room for growth at the current ratio of 64:1 [3]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - While the recent price surge may attract investors, silver's volatility is notably higher than that of gold, with potential for significant price drops [4]. - Silver's liquidity is somewhat lower than gold, which may affect the speed of transactions and lead to price discrepancies in large trades [4]. - Long-term prospects for silver remain strong, supported by ongoing growth in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, which underpin its industrial demand [4]. Conclusion - The current rise in silver prices reflects a genuine reassessment of its industrial value and safe-haven attributes, marking a significant shift in market perception [5].