文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 宏观方面上周相对平静，金铜双双震荡上行。宏观方面围绕降息的博弈仍然是主基调，黄金继续被市场多配。而铜的上涨更多是因为基本面 因素的驱动，周中自由港宣布了旗下位于印尼的世界级铜矿Grasberg矿难的调查结果和产量更新，结果大超市场预期，铜价对此反应较为强 烈。 核心观点 01 上周金铜偏强运行 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.89%，白银 上涨 6.92%；沪金2512合约 上涨 3.07%，沪银2512 合约上涨 6.63%。主要工业金属 价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+2.89%、+3.28%。 G矿产量评估大超预期，铜价盘面反映强烈 0 2 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 宏观方面上周整体较为平静，铜价波动的来源主要由供应端的事件所驱动。周中自由港宣布了旗下位于印尼的世界级铜矿 Grasberg矿难 的调查结果和产量更新，结果大超市场预期。按照最新的产量指引，今年4季度该矿山几乎不会有任何产量，并且影响会持续到明年， 受此影响铜价大幅上行。今年以来接二连三的矿山都发生了比较严重的事故，这使得铜矿干扰不断提升，而铜精矿增量预期则持续下 调，这可能将 ...

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment have jointly pushed up the aluminum oxide market. In the short term, aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the rate and scale of warehouse receipt recovery and new supply disruptions in the future [4][5][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory Event Review - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment pushed up the aluminum oxide market. The 07 contract delivery led to a significant outflow of warehouse receipts, leaving only over 6kt of visible warehouse receipts on the exchange, raising squeeze concerns. The July 18th press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned two statements affecting aluminum oxide, boosting market sentiment. Whether the new growth - stabilization plan for the non - ferrous metals industry will adjust the supply side of the alumina industry remains to be observed [4][5] Market Outlook - Bauxite inventory accumulates weekly with weak prices. Smelters have sufficient low - cost ore sources, and corporate profits have recovered. Alumina companies' operating capacity has been increasing steadily since late May, reaching 93.85mn t. In June, net exports were 69.7k t, the lowest in nearly a year. The demand side is stable, with the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reaching 44.204mn t. The upstream - downstream balance coefficient is 2.12, indicating oversupply. Although inventory data from different sources diverge, both show an inventory accumulation trend, but the absolute inventory level is relatively low [7] - After arbitrage opportunities opened, there was an expectation for new warehouse receipt registration. After the 07 contract delivery, the cancellation of old warehouse receipts led to a tight supply of warehouse receipts. In the short term, sufficient low - cost ore, the recovery of corporate operating capacity, and social inventory alleviated supply concerns. Aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong in the short term. Upstream companies can hedge at high prices, institutions can use straddle option strategies, and those with the means can engage in spot - futures arbitrage [8]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.71% decline to $9481/ton, SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.41% to 77770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss [1]. - Macroeconomic factors such as poor US Treasury auctions and warnings from the ECB have suppressed risk appetite [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1271 tons to 156965 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4520 tons to 41218 tons [1]. - High copper prices and premiums are constraining downstream procurement. Despite the sharp decline in the US dollar last night, the market's suppressed preference failed to drive up copper prices further [1]. - The market is concerned about a large long - position in copper, and the copper structure is unfavorable for short - positions. The continuous outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts indicates that some investors are conducting positive spread expansion trades, which helps maintain the current copper price. It is still regarded as oscillating with a slight upward trend [1]. Aluminum - Alumina trended slightly upwards, with AO2509 closing at 3243 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase, and open interest increasing by 27721 lots to 385,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended slightly downwards, with AL2507 closing at 20135 yuan/ton, a 0.17% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 944 lots to 199,000 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to 3077 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The news of Guinea's withdrawal of mining rights continues to ferment, and domestic alumina supply continues to cut production and conduct maintenance. Demand is generally rigid and shows marginal improvement. With fundamental support and ample speculation space in the news, there is still upward momentum [2]. - The low - expected ingot casting and outward shipment of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum, and the short - term effect of tariff adjustment on export rush continue. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to decline at a low level. With cost support weakening and seasonal off - season pressure, and limited boost from upstream alumina under the interweaving of long and short factors, it may continue to oscillate [2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 0.64% to $15630/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.32% to 123760 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23014 tons [2]. - In the stainless - steel industry chain, the weekly transaction price of nickel - iron raw materials remained stable at around 940 yuan/nickel point, with a slight recovery to 955 yuan/nickel point last Friday. The cost support for stainless steel has shifted downwards compared to the previous period. Although there has been some production cut on the supply side, the social inventory level has not shown a significant de - stocking state. The previous price increase was affected by macro - factors and nickel - ore policy disturbances, but actual demand is difficult to sustain, so it will maintain an oscillating state in the short term [2]. - In the new - energy industry chain, raw materials are expected to increase in supply, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both weak, and the weekly production of ternary batteries at the cell end has weakened. The production of primary nickel decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly last week [2]. - Overall, the firm nickel - ore price supports the nickel price, but nickel - iron is trading at extremely low prices. It will maintain the current range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the primary nickel inventory and the progress of the Philippine government's ore - ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - The report provides daily reviews of copper, aluminum, and nickel, including price changes, inventory levels, and market trends, and analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each metal [1][2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Compares prices, inventory, and other data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025, including the price of flat - copper, scrap copper, downstream products, and changes in inventory at different locations [3]. - **Aluminum**: Compares prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - **Nickel**: Compares prices of nickel products, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [4]. - **Zinc**: Compares prices, processing fees, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. - **Tin**: Compares prices, inventory, and import - export data on May 21, 2025, and May 20, 2025 [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Presents charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Presents charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Presents charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Presents charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Presents charts of copper concentrate index, copper smelting processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. The team he leads has won many awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [48]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].