1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With policies cooling the market's speculative sentiment, raising the proportion of margin trading funds, and Central Huijin selling a large amount of broad - based index ETFs, the stock index is in shock adjustment. The policy aims for a "slow - bull" market rather than suppressing it, and the short - term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited. Long - term bulls can choose the opportunity to layout [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - With the US postponing the tax on key minerals, the short - term concern about copper hoarding has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The aluminum price has fallen from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment. The domestic alumina market has strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure but is expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates in a range due to the stabilization of the cost center and the appearance of inventory pressure. The nickel supply is still tight despite the announced RKAB target in 2026, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Stainless steel futures have risen significantly, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills and the risk of short squeezes [1]. - The tin price has corrected due to the repeated macro sentiment, but there is still upward momentum due to the vulnerability of tin - ore supply. Precious metals are supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, but the silver price may be weaker than the gold price. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined. For new - energy vehicles, it is the off - season, while the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a rush for exports. The rebar and iron - ore prices are under pressure, and the trading strategies are to leave the market for single - side long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - The soda - ash price is under pressure as it follows the glass market and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed. The coking - coal and coke prices are bearish, and the previous low - long strategy may need to be changed [1]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean oil is recommended to be over - allocated in the oil market, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future. The sugar market is in a global surplus, and the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - The corn price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the soybean price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The pulp price is recommended to be observed cautiously, and the log price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. The live - pig market has stable spot prices, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The fuel - oil and asphalt prices are affected by multiple factors such as OPEC+ policies and geopolitical situations. The BR rubber price is in a phased correction, and the PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and styrene prices are affected by supply - demand and cost factors [1]. - The urea price has limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but is supported by anti - involution and cost. The PF price is under supply pressure and affected by geopolitical factors. The PVC price is expected to trade based on fundamentals, and the LPG price is supported by import - gas costs and has a changing inventory situation [1]. - The container - shipping price on the European route is expected to peak in mid - January, and there is still pre - holiday replenishment demand [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - Policy cools speculative sentiment, and the stock index is in shock adjustment. The short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can layout [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. Attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term concern about hoarding eases, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. - Aluminum: Falls from a high level due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Strong supply and weak demand, price under pressure, expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuates in a range due to cost and inventory factors [1]. - Nickel: Supply remains tight, price fluctuates at a high level in the short term, affected by sector resonance [1]. - Stainless Steel: Futures rise significantly, attention to production and short - squeeze risks [1]. - Tin: Corrects due to macro sentiment, but has upward momentum due to supply vulnerability [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Supported by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, silver may be weaker than gold [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fluctuate widely in the short term, long - platinum and short - palladium strategies can be considered in the medium - to - long term [1]. Industrial Silicon and New - Energy Vehicles - Industrial Silicon: Production changes in different regions, polysilicon and organic silicon production schedules decline [1]. - New - Energy Vehicles: Off - season, strong energy - storage demand, rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: Price under pressure, single - side long positions leave the market, participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1]. - Iron Ore: Upward pressure is obvious, not recommended to chase long [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, price under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Bearish, previous low - long strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Recommended to be over - allocated [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Observe due to complex factors [1]. - Cotton: "Having support but no driver", attention to future policies and conditions [1]. - Sugar: Global surplus, short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Pulp: Observe cautiously due to market fluctuations [1]. - Log: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live Pig: Spot prices are stable, production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies and geopolitical factors [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and profit [1]. - BR Rubber: In a phased correction, affected by supply - demand and cost [1]. - PTA: Market has a sharp rise, supported by fundamentals and demand [1]. - MEG: Rebounds due to supply - side news, demand exceeds expectations [1]. - Short - Fiber: Price follows cost closely [1]. - Styrene: Futures price rebounds due to improved fundamentals [1]. - Urea: Limited upward space, supported by anti - involution and cost [1]. - PF: Under supply pressure, affected by geopolitical factors [1]. - PVC: Expected to trade based on fundamentals, price under pressure [1]. - LPG: Supported by import - gas costs, inventory situation changes [1]. Container Shipping - European route price expected to peak in mid - January, pre - holiday replenishment demand exists [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights significant volatility in silver prices, indicating a developing "short squeeze" risk in the market [1] - The current short squeeze risk in both the London and U.S. silver markets remains high, with outstanding contracts corresponding to a claim size of approximately 590 million ounces, while available physical delivery inventory is less than 50 million ounces, resulting in a coverage ratio of only about 7% [1] - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since March 2012, with historical data suggesting that such a drop typically leads to either a rise in gold prices or a decline in silver prices [1] Group 2 - In early trading, London silver prices decreased, attempting to regain bullish momentum after stabilizing at a resistance level of $92.35 [2] - The 20-period moving average at $87.11 serves as the first resistance level, with the next resistance around the recent upward trend line near $90; a breakthrough could reverse the short-term bearish trend [2] - The 50-period moving average at $81.41 is expected to act as a strong support level; a daily close below this indicator may lead to uncontrollable downward movement in silver prices [2]

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced significant volatility, with a drop of up to 7%, falling from a historical high of $93 per ounce to $88.3 per ounce, highlighting the "short squeeze" risk in the market [1] - The current "open interest" in the silver market is approximately 590 million ounces, while the available inventory for physical delivery is only about 50 million ounces, resulting in a coverage ratio of around 7% [1] - Analysts indicate that the silver market is under pressure as the delivery month approaches, with short positions facing potential challenges if long positions opt for actual delivery [1] Group 2 - Recent increases in silver prices are driven by two main factors: lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data for December 2025, which has led to increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating tensions between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about policy stability [2] - The market is characterized by strong momentum driven by macroeconomic risks, structural tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased investment in precious metals as safe havens [2] - Analysts predict that the precious metals market will maintain a strong trend, with gold as a core safe-haven asset and silver expected to perform strongly as a gauge of market risk appetite [2] Group 3 - Expectations for silver prices in 2026 include "high volatility and upward movement," with targets above $100 per ounce due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from strategic industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The re-evaluation of silver's strategic resource value, combined with expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, is expected to enhance silver's price elasticity and volatility [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are anticipated to attract investment for hedging against inflation, providing a premium for silver as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4 - Financial institutions, including UBS and Bank of America, have raised their price forecasts for silver, with UBS noting that increased trading activity in the Chinese market could drive prices higher in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts recommend a strategy of maintaining core positions in gold while tactically participating in high-volatility assets like silver, platinum, and palladium, advising caution due to their unpredictable nature [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish sentiment in the copper market driven by expectations of structural shortages in refined copper for the upcoming year, while gold prices remain relatively stable [2][5]. Copper Market Analysis - Last week, copper prices continued their upward trend, with COMEX copper rising by 3.33% and SHFE copper increasing by 6.12% [4]. - The market anticipates a structural shortage of refined copper next year, which has led to heightened market sentiment and trading activity [6][10]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting may introduce macroeconomic headwinds for copper prices, and a short-term price adjustment could be expected, presenting potential buying opportunities [6][10]. - SHFE copper prices approached 93,000 yuan per ton, but downstream consumption has been somewhat suppressed due to high prices [12]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, with over 430,000 tons recorded, indicating a potential supply adjustment in the market [12]. Precious Metals Market Analysis - Gold prices fell by 0.67% on COMEX, while silver prices rose by 3% last week, reflecting a divergence in performance [4][29]. - Economic data from the U.S. showed weaker-than-expected results, which, combined with dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials, supported high prices for precious metals [8][29]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could impact precious metal prices, particularly if hawkish signals emerge [8][29]. - Long-term trends suggest that gold and silver prices remain in an upward trajectory despite short-term fluctuations [8]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventories decreased by approximately 50,000 ounces, while silver inventories increased by about 300,000 ounces last week [45]. - The SPDR gold ETF saw an increase in holdings by 4.8 tons, reaching 1,050 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold investments [50]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders [50].

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].

Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts based on different factors such as market trends, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships [2]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Affected by the strong stock market and incremental policy expectations, treasury bond futures have declined, releasing some policy over - expectation risks in advance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting communique [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The short - term international gold price has formed support at the 60 - day moving average (around 760 yuan for Shanghai gold). It is possible to buy on dips during the stage. Silver is affected by commodity market sentiment, and its price fluctuates above 38 US dollars (9100 yuan), and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. Commodity Futures Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to be weakly volatile. It is possible to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by production cut expectations, steel prices have strengthened. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The exchange's position limit intervention has caused significant fluctuations in futures prices, and spot prices have increased in auctions. Mongolian coal is temporarily stable. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented. Coking profits are meager, and there are still expectations for further price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is fluctuating narrowly, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [2]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have decreased again, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. The main reference range is 3100 - 3500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have declined slightly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The main reference range is 20,200 - 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased market concerns about marginal supply contraction, and oil prices have risen. The WTI resistance level is given above. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [2][3]. - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventories suppress the rebound space. The short - term market is mainly in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand expectations are tight, but the downstream industry chain still drags down PX trends. Pay attention to the pressure around 7000 and be cautiously bearish. Expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the loose supply - demand situation suppresses the price of soybean meal. The price is weakly volatile [2]. - **Pig Futures**: The spot market remains sluggish, and the previous policy benefits have been digested. It is recommended to be cautious and short the 09 contract [2]. - **Corn**: The market is mixed with both long and short factors, and the futures price is in a range - bound state [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Neutral [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminium prices lack upward elasticity due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. - The alumina supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. The inventory accumulation speed is increasing. There are still problems with the warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. - Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,635 yuan/ton, closed at 20,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,695 yuan/ton and a low of 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,985 lots, and the position was 272,707 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 53,074 tons, a change of - 524 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 456,100 tons, a change of 1,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,259 yuan/ton, closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, a change of 33 yuan/ton (1.01%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a high of 3,311 yuan/ton and a low of 3,230 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 472,199 lots, and the position was 158,124 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On July 29, 2025, the Baotai purchase price of civil primary aluminium was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 63,600 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminium - Aluminium prices lack upward momentum due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract. The long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [6]. Alumina - The supply side continues to resume production, with an oversupply situation and expectations remaining unchanged. There are problems with warehouse receipts, and the registration speed of warehouse receipts needs further observation. The long - term oversupply expectation remains, and the spot market is becoming more cautious [6][7]. Aluminium Alloy - Aluminium alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the price following the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for aluminium, alumina, and aluminium alloy. - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment have jointly pushed up the aluminum oxide market. In the short term, aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the rate and scale of warehouse receipt recovery and new supply disruptions in the future [4][5][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory Event Review - Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment pushed up the aluminum oxide market. The 07 contract delivery led to a significant outflow of warehouse receipts, leaving only over 6kt of visible warehouse receipts on the exchange, raising squeeze concerns. The July 18th press conference of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned two statements affecting aluminum oxide, boosting market sentiment. Whether the new growth - stabilization plan for the non - ferrous metals industry will adjust the supply side of the alumina industry remains to be observed [4][5] Market Outlook - Bauxite inventory accumulates weekly with weak prices. Smelters have sufficient low - cost ore sources, and corporate profits have recovered. Alumina companies' operating capacity has been increasing steadily since late May, reaching 93.85mn t. In June, net exports were 69.7k t, the lowest in nearly a year. The demand side is stable, with the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reaching 44.204mn t. The upstream - downstream balance coefficient is 2.12, indicating oversupply. Although inventory data from different sources diverge, both show an inventory accumulation trend, but the absolute inventory level is relatively low [7] - After arbitrage opportunities opened, there was an expectation for new warehouse receipt registration. After the 07 contract delivery, the cancellation of old warehouse receipts led to a tight supply of warehouse receipts. In the short term, sufficient low - cost ore, the recovery of corporate operating capacity, and social inventory alleviated supply concerns. Aluminum oxide is expected to remain strong in the short term. Upstream companies can hedge at high prices, institutions can use straddle option strategies, and those with the means can engage in spot - futures arbitrage [8]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]