投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-25 宏观面预期反复但稳定，基本金属震荡 整理 有⾊观点：宏观⾯预期反复但稳定，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：美国此前未公布的数据陆续发布，9月非农新增就业高于市场 预期，一度压低12月美联储降息预期并推高美元指数，但周末前威廉姆斯 表态偏鸽派重新提振市场信心，12月美联储降息预期升温，整体来看，宏 观面整体延续预期反复但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传 导。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩 大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰 动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反复及需求一般限制价格上行高 度，基本金属维持震荡整理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储内部存在分歧，铜价⾼位盘整 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压 铝观点：库存延续去化，铝价窄幅震荡 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡 锌观点：出⼝窗⼝打开，锌价⾼ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 投资者静待美国经济数据，基本金属震 荡整理 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-18 有⾊观点：投资者静待美国经济数据，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通 过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦 政府"停摆"，这意味着近期堆积未发布的经济数据将密集公布，投资者 重新审视，12月美联储降息预期有所降温，整体来看，宏观面预期反复， 但整体稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，比如：铜等， 并且，海外铝冶炼再现扰动风险。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放 缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏 紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反 复及需求一般限制价格上行高度，基本金属冲高回落，重新转为震荡整 理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期 仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价 格走势。 铜观点：美国政府重启，铜价⾼位盘整。 氧化铝观点：库存累积速度仍旧较快，氧化铝价维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown has boosted investors' optimism, and the macro - outlook is expected to be stable. The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. The actual supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten. It is optimistic about the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin. In the short - and medium - term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, but weak actual demand may limit price increases. [2] - The report provides individual views on various non - ferrous metals: copper prices are expected to oscillate and recover; alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend; aluminum prices will continue to rise; aluminum alloy prices will oscillate upwards; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate upwards; nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will rise significantly. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views Copper - Macro factors: The signing of the temporary appropriation bill by Trump has revived market optimism, pulling up copper prices. - Supply - demand: Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, processing fees are low, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen. The production of electrolytic copper has declined, and terminal demand is weak, but the acceptance of copper prices by downstream users is increasing. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [7] Alumina - Information: Inventory is accumulating rapidly, and spot prices are stable. - Main logic: High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The market is in a state of over - supply, but the valuation is low, so the price may fluctuate. - Outlook: Alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend. [7] Aluminum - Information: The price has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and exports have declined. - Main logic: The macro - environment is positive, the domestic supply is at a high level with some restrictions, and overseas supply has disturbances. The terminal demand is stable, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the price center may rise in the medium - term. [9][10][11] Aluminum Alloy - Information: The price has increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. - Main logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply is affected by various factors, and demand has marginally improved. - Outlook: The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - and medium - term. [12][13] Zinc - Information: The export window has opened, and the supply of zinc ore has become looser. - Main logic: The macro - environment is optimistic, the short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelting profit is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. - Outlook: Zinc prices will oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term. [14][17] Lead - Information: The social inventory is low, and the price has increased. - Main logic: The spot premium has decreased slightly, the supply has increased, and the demand is in the peak season. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [18][19] Nickel - Information: LME inventory is accumulating, and domestic inventory is balanced through exports. - Main logic: Market sentiment dominates the market, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. [20][23] Stainless Steel - Information: Nickel iron prices have declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Main logic: The cost support has weakened, production has increased, and demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices will maintain an interval oscillation. [24][25] Tin - Information: Supply disruptions are continuous, and prices have increased significantly. - Main logic: Supply disruptions in Wa State and Indonesia have tightened the supply, and the domestic ore supply is also tight. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [26][27] II. Market Monitoring There is no specific content provided for market monitoring in the text, so it cannot be summarized. III. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index increased by 0.47% to 2269.39, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.54% to 2577.33, the industrial products index decreased by 0.01% to 2223.17, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.54% to 1352.02. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.67% on November 13, 2025, with a 5 - day increase of 1.51%, a 1 - month increase of 2.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.77%. [149][150]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].