1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets moved sideways this week with little overall fluctuation [62]. - The current operating logic of the black industrial chain lies in weak terminal consumption, with the slump in the real - estate industry being the core factor. The negative feedback mechanism in the industrial chain is transmitted upwards, and different links are affected differently according to their industry status. Overall, weak demand suppresses prices [62]. - On Monday, prices rose due to the influence of rumors, and market expectations for policies are a key factor in price fluctuations. However, the probability of substantial policy introduction is low in the current environment [62]. - The report maintains the previous view that the fundamentals are bearish, and the overall steel and ore markets will remain in a weak pattern [62]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Iron Ore Spot Prices**: PB powder price increased from 783 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, and Bar - mixed powder price rose from 820 yuan/wet ton to 831 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: PB powder's spot landing profit decreased from - 5.41 yuan/wet ton to - 12.08 yuan/wet ton, while Bar - mixed powder's increased from 18.38 yuan/wet ton to 21.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volumes**: Australia's shipments to China increased from 1454.2 million tons to 1812.1 million tons, and Brazil's shipments rose from 725.7 million tons to 847.9 million tons [6]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventories and Related Data**: Imported iron ore port inventory decreased by 77.99 million tons to 15734.85 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 399.4 million tons to 2369.9 million tons, the port clearance volume increased by 3.11 million tons to 343.39 million tons, the daily port trading volume decreased by 10.5 million tons to 91.6 million tons, the average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 million tons to 236.28 million tons, and the steel - enterprise profitability rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Product Prices**: Shanghai rebar price increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3260 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel - Making Furnace Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 82.19%, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 69.13% [33]. - **Steel Product Profits**: Rebar blast - furnace profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast - furnace profit decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and rebar electric - furnace profit increased by 42 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar weekly output increased by 7.96 million tons to 207.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output rose by 2.35 million tons to 316.01 million tons [33]. 3.2.2 Another Set of One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar's weekly social inventory decreased by 15.73 million tons to 400.02 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory dropped by 7.1 million tons to 153.32 million tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly social inventory decreased by 8.91 million tons to 324.09 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 78.02 million tons [35]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: Rebar's weekly apparent consumption increased by 14.42 million tons to 230.79 million tons, and hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent consumption rose by 10.83 million tons to 324.42 million tons [35]. - **Building Material Trading Volume**: The building material trading volume decreased by 9111 tons to 95010 tons [35]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates are important indicators for steel production capacity utilization [41]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production volumes in China are presented over different time periods, showing trends in production [43][45]. - **Steel Profits**: The average profit of electric - furnace steel for construction use in China is shown over time, reflecting the profitability of the steel - making process [50]. - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories in social and enterprise warehouses in China are presented, which are important for analyzing supply - demand relationships [51][52]. - **Steel Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building - use steel by mainstream traders in China is shown, indicating market activity [54]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different years are presented, helping to understand market demand [56]. - **Steel Exports**: The monthly export volume of steel in China is shown, which is related to the international market demand for Chinese steel [57]. - **Real - Estate Indicators**: The year - on - year cumulative investment completion of residential buildings by real - estate development enterprises, the year - on - year cumulative sales area of commercial housing, the year - on - year cumulative new construction, construction, and completion areas of houses, and the manufacturing PMI are presented, which are related to the demand for steel in the real - estate and manufacturing industries [58][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices weakened. After the macro - impact subsided, the market focus returned to fundamentals. The lack of improvement in terminal consumption directly hit the black - metal industry chain. Both steel products showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand continued to decline, which dampened market confidence. Notably, iron ore weakened significantly this week. The negative feedback from the weak terminal demand was finally transmitted to iron ore, with a large accumulation of port inventories and a significant drop in molten iron production, resulting in iron ore performing weaker than steel products. Looking ahead, given the unfavorable domestic policies and external export conditions, terminal demand is unlikely to improve. The report maintains the view that the pattern of the off - peak season during the peak period for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore market will remain weak [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 773 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 30 yuan; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 840 yuan/wet ton to 814 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 26 yuan. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 15.51 yuan/wet ton to - 9.32 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 6.19 yuan; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 8.41 yuan/wet ton to 19.75 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11.34 yuan. Australia's shipments to China decreased from 1625.3 tons to 1544.8 tons, a decrease of 80.5 tons; Brazil's shipments decreased from 925.1 tons to 856 tons, a decrease of 69.1 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 15272.93 tons to 15624.13 tons, an increase of 351.2 tons; imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2084.3 tons to 3314.1 tons, an increase of 1229.8 tons; imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 331.22 tons to 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.6 tons to 125.8 tons, an increase of 46.2 tons; daily molten iron production decreased from 236.36 tons to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons; steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 45.02% to 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [6] 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3230 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3330 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan. Blast furnace operating rate increased from 81.75% to 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 68.83% to 67.03%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Rebar blast furnace profit increased from - 57 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 114 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 139 yuan/ton to - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. Weekly rebar production decreased from 212.59 tons to 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased from 323.56 tons to 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons. Weekly rebar social inventory decreased from 430.81 tons to 425.7 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons; weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 171.71 tons to 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons. Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 328.93 tons to 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory decreased from 77.66 tons to 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 232.19 tons to 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased from 331.89 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons. Building materials trading volume decreased from 89930 tons to 87098 tons, a decrease of 2832 tons [29][31] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates are presented, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing and the electric furnace operating rate decreasing this week [29] - **Production Volumes**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Chinese steel enterprises shows a decreasing trend [29] - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces increased, while the profit of rebar in electric furnaces decreased [29] - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased and the enterprise inventory decreased [31] - **Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [31] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [31] - **Export Volumes**: The monthly export volume of steel products in China is presented [53] - **Real Estate Indicators**: The report shows the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, etc. [54][55] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The monthly value of the manufacturing PMI in China is presented [56]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a mixed fundamental outlook, with supply concerns heightened by a decrease in copper concentrate processing fees and a production cut forecast from Chile's Codelco, while demand expectations are improving marginally due to the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Copper concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, raising supply concerns [1] - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, has lowered its annual production forecast, exacerbating supply worries [1] Group 2: Demand Outlook - Social inventory has decreased over the past week, although the absolute level remains low, leading to improved demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to drive marginal improvements in demand [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The collective inventory accumulation across LME, COMEX, and SHFE indicates weak terminal consumption during the off-season [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has dampened market sentiment, limiting financial support for copper prices [1] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The copper market is characterized by a coexistence of tight supply and inventory accumulation, alongside fluctuating macroeconomic drivers, suggesting a short-term oscillation in price [1] - The market is awaiting validation of demand during the peak season and clearer policy signals [1]