发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡走强，收于 754.5 元/吨，较前 一个交易日收盘价上涨 4 元/吨，涨幅+0.53%，成交 26.7 万手，持仓量 54.3 万 手，沉淀资金 90.09 亿。铁矿下行至前低附近后呈现符合预判的止跌反弹，目前 下方短期支撑上移至 745 附近，近期仍以偏强反弹思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 749 跌 0，超特粉 638 跌 0， 掉期主力 99.25(+1.4）美元/吨。掉期延续反弹走强，现货持稳。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 777.4 元/吨，基差 22.9 元/吨， 基差收窄；铁矿 5-9 价差 21 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12 元。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，澳洲发运恢复；本期到港继续走弱，天气影响 到港节奏，后期有望回升；需求端，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂盈利率走弱， 刚需边际回升，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，铁矿港口库存止增，到 港回落叠加钢厂补库使得港口累库压力阶段性缓解，但整体总库存压力仍在 积累。上海放松地产限购提振盘面情绪，短 ...

地缘风险反复，铂钯延续上行 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年2⽉3⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价599. 85元/克，涨幅6.73%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为461元/克，涨幅 6.29%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-05 铂观点：地缘风险扰动叠加宏观预期向好，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据央视网2月4日报道，美军在阿拉伯海附近击落一架伊朗无人 机，地缘风险再度升温，市场避险情绪受到提振，带动铂价延续反弹走 势。此外，美国对铂钯加征关税，以及西方可能对俄罗斯产铂族金属实施 新一轮制裁的预期仍在持续，短期内铂价或将维持震荡偏强格局，投资者 可关注择机低吸布局机会。需要注意的是，当前市场整体波动率仍处于较 高水平，建议投资者谨慎操作，合理控制仓位。展望未来，供给方面，南 非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风 险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求 保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同 时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for platinum and palladium futures contracts due to increased market volatility [1][3][9]. Group 1: Adjustments to Trading Limits and Margin Requirements - Starting from January 13, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be set at 16%, with the margin requirement adjusted to 18% [3]. - Effective December 29, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for platinum and palladium futures contracts will increase from 1 lot to 2 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity will remain at 1 lot [5]. - Non-futures company members or clients will have a daily opening position limit of 300 lots for both platinum and palladium futures contracts [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Price Movements - On January 9, 2023, the main palladium futures contract surged over 6% after experiencing two consecutive days of price limits [9]. - The NYMEX palladium main contract rose more than 7%, currently priced at $1924.5 per ounce [10]. - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with support from dovish comments by Federal Reserve officials and ongoing risk aversion [12]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Citic Futures expect platinum prices to remain strong due to healthy supply-demand fundamentals and positive macroeconomic expectations, while cautioning investors to trade carefully amid increased price volatility [13]. - The outlook for palladium prices is also positive, driven by supply shortages and favorable macro conditions, although short-term price fluctuations may prompt cautious trading strategies [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, and the supply is abundant while downstream demand is weak. The PVC market is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The market expectation is boosted by the central bank's work meeting. The current supply - demand of caustic soda is still weak, and the demand may decline in the medium - to - long term due to the anti - involution policy of alumina [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,972 yuan/ton (+53), the East China basis is - 272 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis is - 272 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 714 yuan/ton (+47), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 279 yuan/ton (+56), and the PVC export profit is - 34.4 US dollars/ton (-19.2) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.9 million tons (+0.3), the social PVC inventory is 52.5 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (-0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 million tons (+0.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,261 yuan/ton (+67), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 111 yuan/ton (-73) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (-2), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (-6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (-46.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 184.20 yuan/ton (+23.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+29.49) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 48.57 million tons (+4.35), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.02 million tons (+0.05), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+0.40%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.67% (-0.47%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.81% (-0.47%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 85.05% (-1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the market rebounds due to policy and overseas factors. The supply is abundant, downstream operation declines, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. The production profit has some repair, but the upstream raw material profit is still in the red. The futures hedging pressure exists, and it is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The market expectation is boosted by the central bank's policy. The supply - demand is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the cost support may strengthen slightly. The demand may decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is necessary to focus on downstream procurement sentiment and device maintenance [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [5]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.