Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Iron ore fundamentals show inventory accumulation and limited recovery in back - end demand. With the upcoming Two Sessions, positive macro - expectations and the BACK structure of futures under positive basis limit the further downward space, and the short - term trend is a volatile and moderately strong rebound [4] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened in intraday trading, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or +0.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 267,000 lots, the open interest was 543,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.009 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and it is still treated with a moderately strong rebound mindset [1] - Port spot prices: PB powder at Qingdao Port was 749 yuan (unchanged), Super Special powder was 638 yuan (unchanged), and the main swap was 99.25 (+1.4) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound and strengthen, while the spot prices remained stable [1] - At the basis and spread end, the converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrivals this period continued to weaken due to weather impacts on the arrival rhythm, but are expected to pick up later. On the demand side, hot metal production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, and the rigid demand increased marginally. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory of iron ore stopped increasing. The decline in arrivals and steel mills' replenishment alleviated the port inventory accumulation pressure temporarily, but the overall inventory pressure is still building up. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted the market sentiment, but may have limited impact on the actual demand in the short term. The Two Sessions are about to be held after the holiday, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policies are coordinated and strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market shows marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Real - estate transactions remained at a low level, but the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds was increased, but the investment structure was adjusted, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support to the black chain [3] - Overseas, consumer confidence is recovering, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium affects the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with Trump's strengthened stance towards Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth has not stalled, and policy and geopolitical risks have increased" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish due to geopolitical risks and positive macro - expectations [1]. - Palladium is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by tariff expectations and tight spot supply [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, both platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish [2][3]. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan/gram, with a 6.73% increase [1]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone on February 4, 2026, have boosted market risk - aversion and led to a rebound in platinum prices. The expectation of new sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals and US tariffs on platinum and palladium also support the short - term bullish trend [1]. - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand for jewelry and investment. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [1]. Palladium - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 461 yuan/gram, with a 6.29% increase [1]. - After a significant short - term correction, the overheating risk of palladium has been released. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, tight spot supply, US tariff increases, and sanctions on Russia support the price bottom. The Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle also has a positive impact on palladium prices [3]. Commodity Index - On February 4, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index includes the following: the commodity index was 2421.45, up 1.99%; the commodity 20 index was 2772.98, up 2.43%; the industrial products index was 2322.73, up 1.42% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 4, 2026, was 2739.40, with a daily increase of 2.28%, a 5 - day decrease of 8.01%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.99% [51]. - The PPI commodity index was 1434.67, up 1.75% [51].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for platinum and palladium futures contracts due to increased market volatility [1][3][9]. Group 1: Adjustments to Trading Limits and Margin Requirements - Starting from January 13, 2026, the price fluctuation limit for platinum and palladium futures contracts will be set at 16%, with the margin requirement adjusted to 18% [3]. - Effective December 29, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for platinum and palladium futures contracts will increase from 1 lot to 2 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity will remain at 1 lot [5]. - Non-futures company members or clients will have a daily opening position limit of 300 lots for both platinum and palladium futures contracts [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Price Movements - On January 9, 2023, the main palladium futures contract surged over 6% after experiencing two consecutive days of price limits [9]. - The NYMEX palladium main contract rose more than 7%, currently priced at $1924.5 per ounce [10]. - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with support from dovish comments by Federal Reserve officials and ongoing risk aversion [12]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Citic Futures expect platinum prices to remain strong due to healthy supply-demand fundamentals and positive macroeconomic expectations, while cautioning investors to trade carefully amid increased price volatility [13]. - The outlook for palladium prices is also positive, driven by supply shortages and favorable macro conditions, although short-term price fluctuations may prompt cautious trading strategies [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, and the supply is abundant while downstream demand is weak. The PVC market is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The market expectation is boosted by the central bank's work meeting. The current supply - demand of caustic soda is still weak, and the demand may decline in the medium - to - long term due to the anti - involution policy of alumina [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,972 yuan/ton (+53), the East China basis is - 272 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis is - 272 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 714 yuan/ton (+47), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 279 yuan/ton (+56), and the PVC export profit is - 34.4 US dollars/ton (-19.2) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory is 30.9 million tons (+0.3), the social PVC inventory is 52.5 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.42% (-0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 million tons (+0.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,261 yuan/ton (+67), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 111 yuan/ton (-73) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (-2), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (-6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (-46.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 184.20 yuan/ton (+23.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+29.49) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 48.57 million tons (+4.35), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.02 million tons (+0.05), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+0.40%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.67% (-0.47%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.81% (-0.47%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 85.05% (-1.98%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the market rebounds due to policy and overseas factors. The supply is abundant, downstream operation declines, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. The production profit has some repair, but the upstream raw material profit is still in the red. The futures hedging pressure exists, and it is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The market expectation is boosted by the central bank's policy. The supply - demand is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the cost support may strengthen slightly. The demand may decline in the medium - to - long term, and it is necessary to focus on downstream procurement sentiment and device maintenance [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [5]. - Inter - period: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.