今年二季度以来，面对外部挑战，我国宏观政策的前瞻性、连贯性、有效性持续凸显，货币政策、财政 政策、产业政策协同发力，各方积极应对、主动作为，国民经济稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。这些积 极变化是国际投行上调我国经济增速预期的底层逻辑。一系列经济数据也为国际投行上调经济增速预期 提供了有力支持——在一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%的基础上，二季度以来经济持续向好发展。 数据显示，5月份综合PMI（采购经理指数）产出指数为50.4%，表明我国经济总体产出保持扩张态势。 今年以来，宏观政策在保障短期经济增长目标的同时，还通过深化改革释放中长期经济增长潜力。比 如，全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进，各地加快打破小循环、畅通大循环，为巩固经济回升向好奠定坚 实基础。此外，今年5月20日起施行的《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》，对促进民营经济高质量发 展意义重大、影响深远。 近日，多家国际投行上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。其中，摩根士丹利上调0.3个百分点，野村上调 0.5个百分点，高盛上调0.6个百分点，瑞银上调0.6个百分点，摩根大通上调0.7个百分点。一般而言，国 际投行上调一国经济增速预期，能够提振市场信心，吸引 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy [10][18]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a recovery in macro expectations, with a notable increase in oil prices due to supply risks from geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring planting season [10][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have risen this week, with a focus on companies that have strong fundamentals and are less affected by oil price fluctuations [10][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, highlighting their unique market positions and growth potential [10][18]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information 2.1 Oil - As of June 6, Brent oil prices increased by 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, driven by supply risks and seasonal demand [14]. - U.S. crude oil commercial inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.1 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for liquid chlorine (up 11.8%), natural gas (up 9.3%), and hydrochloric acid (up 4.6%) [15]. - The report notes significant monthly price changes, with hydrochloric acid increasing by 54.5% [10][15]. 3. Price and Spread Changes - The report highlights the top three products with the largest weekly spread increases: R410a spread (up 200.0%), acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 58.2%), and PTA (up 45.9%) [10][20]. - Monthly spread changes show significant increases in the electric stone method PVC spread (up 216.9%) [10][20].

这个端午假期，消费者出行热情高涨。 交通运输部的数据显示，端午假期，全社会跨区域人员流动量达到65370万人次，日均21790万人次，同比增长2.5%。这不是抽象的数字，而是中国经济 社会活力奔涌的生动写照。 铁路客运量日均1601万人次，公路人员流动量日均19911万人次，民航客运量日均188万人次…… 资料图：中国铁路迎端午假期返程客流高峰。图/刘力鑫 摄 一张张高铁票，一场场演唱会、足球赛，端午出行热背后，流动中国有着哪些深层脉动？ 消费活力的强劲引擎在轰鸣。 超6.53亿人次的流动，是行走的消费力。 在河南，全省假期接待游客1511.6万人次、旅游收入67.9亿元，同比分别增长4.7％、5.3％。 在北京，三天全市共接待游客821.1万人次，同比增长5.4%；实现旅游总花费107.7亿元，同比增长6.7%。 在广东，假期全省累计接待游客2321.0万人次，同比增长20.6%；实现旅游收入114.4亿元，同比增长25.6%。 …… 资料图：2025江苏省城市足球联赛第三轮。 在江苏，有着"苏超"之称的江苏城市足球联赛第三轮场均观众突破万人，相关城市也在借助赛事促进当地文旅消费。如，常州和扬州的比赛期间， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices experienced a slight decline, while the prices of acrylic acid and coal tar saw significant increases. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [9][17]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories by 600,000 barrels [13][14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [9][14]. Price and Spread Changes - The report indicates that the top three products with the largest weekly price increases were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest monthly price increases were liquid chlorine (up 40.2%), but it also noted significant declines in formic acid (down 29.2%) [9][15]. - The top three products with the largest weekly spread increases were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The report also highlights significant declines in the spreads of acrylic acid butyl ester (down 710.1%) and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [9][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI is seeing profit improvements, with new petrochemical and new material projects coming online [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product prices are recovering alongside a decline in coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline this week, with a focus on leading companies that have strong alpha and are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [17][9][5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production expectations contributed to this decline. As of May 16, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 443.2 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 1.3 million barrels [13][2]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [14][9]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 710.1%), R410a spread (down 100.0%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (down 20.7%) [19][9]. - Monthly, the top three price spread increases were in styrene (up 192.7%), oil head ethylene glycol spread (up 130.1%), and MTO spread (up 119.6%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 2675.6%), BDO (phenol method) spread (down 370.9%), and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [19][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product price recovery combined with falling coal prices leads to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

值得一提的是，5月20日正式实施的《民营经济促进法》，为民营经济发展提供坚实的法治保障，给众 多经营主体吃下"定心丸"，将有效激发民营经济活力。 内需市场持续回暖，为经济发展提供"稳定器"。今年前4个月，以商品销售为主的社零总和以服务消费 为代表的服务零售额均呈现回升势头。1至4月，社零总增长4.7%，全国网上零售额增长7.7%。其中， 实物商品网上零售额增长继续快于社零总增长。消费品以旧换新加力扩围，基本生活类和部分升级类商 品销售旺盛。4月份，限额以上单位通讯器材类、体育娱乐用品类均达到两位数增长。在假日经济和春 日经济带动下，1至4月，服务零售额增长5.1%，连续两个月加快增长，特别是旅游、交通出行、通讯 信息和商务服务业等服务消费持续升温。随着消费动能不断壮大，内需潜力的持续释放对经济增长的拉 动有望进一步增强。 当前，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键时期，虽然外部环境"风高浪急"，但我国经济"底盘稳、活力 足、韧性强"的基本面没有改变。相信随着宏观政策效应进一步显现，创新动能不断增强，我们有信 心、有能力"爬坡过坎"，保持经济平稳健康发展，在高质量发展的航道上行稳致远，也为世界经济复苏 作出更大贡献。 ...

本报记者 孟庆伟 北京报道 5月19日，国家统计局发布4月份国民经济运行数据，主要指标平稳增长，其中全国居民消费价格指数 （CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）变化备受关注。 数据显示，4月份CPI同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月持平；核心CPI（扣除食品和能源价格）同比上涨 0.5%，保持稳定。PPI同比下降2.7%，降幅较上月扩大0.2个百分点。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，今年前4个月，核心CPI呈稳中有升态 势，显示宏观政策效果显现，国内需求扩大对价格的拉动作用增强。 杨宜勇强调，这些政策不仅有助于缓解通缩压力，也为经济长期稳定增长奠定基础。 核心CPI涨幅稳定 具体来看，4月份CPI环比上涨0.1%，扭转了此前下降趋势。八大类商品和服务价格中，有七类上涨， 仅交通、通信价格下降3.9%。食品价格环比上涨0.2%，牛羊肉、水产品和鲜果价格上升，鲜菜和猪肉 价格下降。 杨宜勇分析称，食品价格分化主要受季节因素和供给变化影响，比如部分地区进入休渔期导致海水鱼价 格上涨，猪肉则因供应充足价格持续走低。此外，受需求回暖和假日因素影响，飞机票、交通工具租 赁、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服务价 ...

今年前4个月，中国汽车产销量历史上首次均超过1000万辆。 中国汽车工业协会（简称"中汽协"）5月12日发布的最新数据显示，今年前4个月汽车产量为1017.5万 辆，同比增长12.9%；销量1006辆，同比增长10.8%，产销增速较1-3月分别收窄1.6和0.4个百分点。 "4月汽车市场总体表现良好，产销较去年同期实现平稳增长。"中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华如是 说，这是历史上前4个月产销量首次超过1000万辆。 在陈士华看来，中央政治局会议4月25日指出要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，与去年9月一揽子 增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国两会部署任务形成接续，对经济形成有力支撑，有助于进一步提振 汽车内需市场，帮助应对出口负面冲击，巩固拓展汽车行业稳中向好发展态势。 乘用车自主品牌市占率为68.7% 4月汽车产销分别为261.9万辆和259万辆，同比分别增长8.9%和9.8%。其中，4月乘用车产销分别完成 225.7万辆和222.3万辆，同比分别增长10.2%和11%。 从今年前4个月来看，乘用车产量为876.5万辆，同比增长14.5%；销量为864.1万辆，同比增长12.4%。 陈士华表示，汽车市场在政 ...

5月12日，中国汽车工业协会发布4月汽车市场数据。4月，汽车产销分别完成261.9万辆和259万辆，环 比分别下降12.9%和11.2%，同比分别增长8.9%和9.8%。1至4月，汽车产销累计完成1017.5万辆和1006 万辆，同比分别增长12.9%和10.8%。 中汽协分析，4月，汽车市场总体表现良好，产销较去年同期实现平稳增长。其中，内需潜力加快释 放，起到较好支撑作用；出口在外部环境急剧变化形势下保持稳定；新能源汽车表现活跃，产销延续快 速增长态势。 4月25日，中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下一步经济工作。会议指出，要不断完 善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，与去年9月一揽子增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国"两会"部署任务 形成接续。中汽协认为，会议释放出的信号将有助于进一步提振汽车内需市场，帮助应对出口负面冲 击，巩固拓展汽车行业稳中向好发展态势。 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：赵语涵 如遇作品内容、版权等问题，请在相关文章刊发之日起30日内与本网联系。版权侵权联系电话：010-85202353 乘用车领域，4月，乘用车产销分别完成225.7万辆和222.3万辆，环比分别下降12.4%和1 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 本周油价上涨，液氯、美国天然气、MDI 价格上涨 核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 5 月 2 日美国原油商业库存 4.384 亿桶，周减少 200 万 桶；汽油库存 2.257 亿桶，周增加 20 万桶；馏分油库存 1.067 亿桶，周减少 110 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.48176 亿桶，周增加 97.0 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 5 月 2 日美国原油产量为 1336.7 万桶/天，周度减少 9.8 万桶/天，较一年前增加 26.7 万桶/天。2025 年 5 月 9 日美国钻机数 578 台，周减少 6 台，年减少 25 台；加拿大 钻机数 114 台，周减少 6 台，年减少 2。其中美国采油钻机 474 台，周度减少 5 台， 年度减少 22 台。 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 12 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 ...