29日，白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台 酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20股涨停。白酒板块全天成交金额超600亿元。 消费股全面反弹 29日，以茅台为代表的消费股全面反弹。截至收盘，白酒基金LOF(161725)涨停，成交额超2.9亿元。 | 白酒基金LOF | | | | | | 17 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.746 10.03% | | | | | | | | 股吧 | 资讯 | 公告 | 资金 | 持仓 | | 荒彩 | | 持仓占比明细数据 | | | | | | | | 持仓占比(2025-12-31) | | | | | 申赎清单(?) | | | 名称 | | 持仓占比↓ | | 最新, | | 涨幅 | | 贵州茅台 600519 | | 15.38% | | 1437.72 | | 8.61% | | 山西分酒 608009 | | 15.11% | | 177.42 | | 10.00% | | 五粮液 000858 | | 14.65% | | 110. ...

"老登"回来了？ "动销跟踪看，近期茅台动销及批价均好于市场预期。"招商证券在1月26日发布的研报中表示，i茅台以及专卖店自发团购拓宽消费群体，逐步交易出了价格底部。根 据i茅台官方公众号1—9日累计超40万成交测算，预计i茅台1月投放超千吨。同时，传统渠道动销量未见明显下滑。截至目前预计全渠道动销量有小幅增长、价格坚 挺、2月传统渠道动销有望加速。结合基金四季报持仓，白酒板块重仓比例已降至3.5%，超配比例仅为1.0%，低于2013年的一季度到二季度，环比2025年三季度持 平，重申白酒底部买点已经出现。 今日（1月29日），白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20股涨停。白酒板块 全天成交金额超600亿。 消息面上，本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，2026年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2026年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元；2025年飞天 茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2025年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。 华安证券在近日的研报中也指出，以食品饮料为代表的消费行业已经历持续5年 ...

将信心转化为高质量发展的力量，关键在实干。点燃创新引擎，既敢闯科技前沿"无人区"，破解"卡脖 子"难题，又要打通成果转化通道，让科技扎根产业沃土。激活内需潜能，加快完善"能消费""敢消 费""愿消费"的政策措施，以优质供给适配新消费趋势。着力打造一流营商环境，激发各类经营主体活 力，为经营主体松绑减负。建设全国统一大市场，化优势为胜势、变潜力为实力，为高质量发展提供强 大支撑。筑牢民生保障网，要兼具力度与温度，聚焦就业、教育、医疗等关键领域，动态优化民生服务 政策体系，在高质量发展中推进共同富裕，让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民。 历史由奋斗书写，未来靠实干铸就。140万亿元的里程碑，是过往拼搏的见证，更是新征程的起点。以 永不懈怠的奋斗姿态，将信心化为脚踏实地的行动，方能书写出更加璀璨的高质量发展答卷。（唐代 远） 国家统计局1月19日发布数据，初步核算，2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）达到1401879亿元，按不变 价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。"稳"的根基更加牢固、"进"的步伐更加坚定，这份亮眼的成绩单，是结构 优化、动能转换、市场韧性的生动写照。这份发展底气，为新征程注入信心与力量。 读懂140万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a well-known fund manager, has disclosed the latest holdings and layout views of his four funds, indicating a reduction in management scale despite positive performance over the past year [1][3] Fund Performance - The four funds managed by Zhang Kun reported respective increases of 6.86%, 8.46%, 11.75%, and 41.87% in 2025 [3] - The total management scale of Zhang Kun's funds decreased to approximately 48.38 billion yuan, a decline of 14.43% from the previous quarter and 17.91% from the end of 2024 [3] Stock Holdings - The funds slightly increased their equity investment ratios by 1% to 3% in Q4 2025 [3] - Major reductions were observed in holdings of leading liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, with a reduction of around 5% in Q4 compared to a 10% reduction in Q3 [3][4] Sector Adjustments - Significant reductions were also noted in holdings of JD Health and Focus Media, with some funds reducing JD Health shares by approximately 50% [4] - The funds adjusted their sector allocations, maintaining positions in companies with strong business models and competitive advantages while reducing exposure in sectors like real estate, pharmaceuticals, and computing [5][6] Real Estate Market Outlook - Zhang Kun expressed that the decline in housing prices in major cities is likely nearing its end, influenced by low-risk interest rates and potential policy support [7][8] - The negative impact of declining housing prices on consumer wealth and spending is expected to improve, leading to a potential increase in consumer willingness to spend [7][8] Consumer Market Insights - The domestic consumption has been weak in recent years, but long-term projections suggest significant improvements in living standards and social security levels over the next decade [7][8] - The growth rate of per capita GDP in China is expected to exceed the global average, supporting a stronger domestic demand environment [7][8] AI and Innovation - A strong domestic market is seen as crucial for promoting technological innovation, with the potential for domestic companies to attract global resources and talent [9] - Confidence remains high in the business models and cash flow capabilities of companies within the fund's portfolio, despite concerns about market conditions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the investment strategies of top fund managers, particularly focusing on Zhang Kun from E Fund, who has made adjustments in his portfolio amidst market fluctuations, maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook on China's economic transformation and the growth of the domestic market [1][10]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q4 2025, Zhang Kun managed a total fund size of 48.383 billion yuan, which reflects adjustments from the previous quarter [1]. - Three of the funds primarily investing in A-shares reported negative quarterly returns, failing to outperform their benchmarks, while the E Fund Asia Select, which focuses on overseas Chinese stocks, achieved a positive return of 4.53%, significantly exceeding its benchmark [2][10]. Portfolio Adjustments - In Q4 2025, there was a reduction in holdings of key stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while maintaining a stable stock position overall [3][13]. - The adjustments focused on reallocating investments in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and technology [3][13]. Economic Outlook - Zhang Kun expressed a long-term optimistic view on the macroeconomic environment, predicting significant improvements in living standards and social security in China over the next decade, narrowing the gap with developed countries [4][14]. - He emphasized the unique advantages of the Chinese market in the context of the global AI wave, noting that a strong domestic demand market is a crucial driver for technological innovation [4][14]. Investment Philosophy - The report addresses concerns regarding the long-term value of core assets, with Zhang Kun asserting that the underlying value remains intact and that current market pessimism has created attractive valuations for quality companies [5][15]. - He believes that the current low valuation of quality assets presents a rare opportunity for long-term investors [5][15]. Policy Context - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key task for 2026, highlighting the government's commitment to enhancing consumer spending [6][16]. - The report notes that recent indicators show domestic consumption has been weak, particularly for companies focused on domestic demand compared to those reliant on exports [6][16]. GDP Growth Projections - According to the "14th Five-Year Plan," China aims to achieve a per capita GDP level comparable to that of middle-income developed countries by 2035, requiring a compound annual growth rate of 5.27% [7][17]. - The report suggests that the decline in housing prices over the past five years has negatively impacted consumer wealth and spending, but this trend may be reversing due to potential policy support and lower interest rates [7][17].

Core Viewpoint - The Ba Zhong Municipal Economic Work Conference emphasizes the necessity of maintaining a relatively fast economic growth rate despite the small economic scale, setting ambitious targets for 2026, including a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the industrial foundation [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - Ba Zhong prioritizes expanding domestic demand as a key task for the year, focusing on boosting consumption and effective investment as core strategies [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ba Zhong achieved a total retail sales of consumer goods amounting to 40.362 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [2]. - The city plans to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, innovate consumption formats, and enhance the consumption environment, including a series of promotional activities [2]. Group 2: Strengthening the Real Economy - Ba Zhong aims to solidify its industrial foundation by focusing on key industries such as energy and chemicals, advanced materials, electronic information, food and beverage, and healthcare [3][4]. - The city is leveraging its natural gas reserves of 1.4 trillion cubic meters and shale oil resources of approximately 2.5 billion tons to develop the energy and chemical industry [3]. - A sodium-ion battery industry park is being established, with over 1,500 acres allocated for development, aiming to attract leading companies in the sector [4]. Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration and Social Welfare - The city is committed to enhancing urban-rural integration and improving the well-being of its residents, with a focus on modernizing agriculture and rural areas [5][6]. - Plans include the development of a modern urban area in the Mengzi River section, featuring parks and recreational facilities [6]. - Initiatives to boost employment, improve education and healthcare, and enhance cultural services are being prioritized to elevate the quality of life for residents [7].

Core Insights - The overall performance of China's foreign trade in 2025 is impressive, with significant growth in both exports and imports, leading to a record trade surplus [1][4][10]. Trade Data Summary - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 5.2% year-on-year in RMB terms and 6.6% in USD terms, while imports grew by 4.4% and 5.7% respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of over 800 billion RMB and 114.1 billion USD [1][3]. - For the entire year of 2025, China's total foreign trade exceeded 45 trillion RMB, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, with exports reaching 27 trillion RMB (up 6%) and imports at 18.5 trillion RMB (up 0.5%), resulting in a trade surplus of 8.5 trillion RMB [4][6]. - In USD terms, the total trade volume reached 6.35 trillion USD, a 3.2% increase, with exports at 3.77 trillion USD (up 5.5%) and imports at 2.58 trillion USD (flat) [6][10]. Trade Relationships - China remains the world's largest exporter and the second-largest importer, with a record trade surplus of 1.19 trillion USD, the highest ever recorded for any country [6][10]. - The trade volume between China and the US in 2025 was 559.7 billion USD, a decline of 18% year-on-year, with exports to the US dropping by 20% and imports decreasing by 14% [8][11]. - In contrast, trade with ASEAN reached 1.05 trillion USD (up 7.4%), with exports to ASEAN at 665.2 billion USD (up 13.4%), making it China's largest export market, followed by the EU [8][10]. Market Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in exports to the US, China's overall exports still grew by over 5%, primarily due to strong performance in non-US markets such as ASEAN and the EU, which together accounted for 1.22 trillion USD, three times the exports to the US [10][11]. - The growth in exports to other regions, including Latin America and Africa, was notable, with exports to Africa increasing by 25.6% [10].

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Group 1 - The domestic eel consumption market is heating up with the approach of New Year and Spring Festival, and there is a tight supply of large-sized American eels in the market [1] - Tianma Technology Group has established strong domestic and international procurement channels for eel seedlings, ensuring proactive procurement for 2026 and smooth implementation of future farming plans [1] - The company has formed an integrated industrial pattern from seedling, feed, farming to food processing and sales, and has established eight major fishery industrial clusters and two large-scale industrial bases [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's eel output reached 13,486 tons, with the third quarter output at 3,983 tons, both at historical highs [2] - The company has effectively leveraged the synergy of its industrial chain through a "farming + food" dual-drive strategy, leading to stable growth in both farming and food businesses [2] - The domestic demand is crucial for stabilizing eel market prices, which directly impacts pricing power in international markets, enhancing the competitiveness of the domestic eel industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of fundamental support and long-term development trends, with several sectors expected to continuously release high-quality development momentum [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is entering a new stage of deep application, with a robust support system developing in hard technology fields such as advanced manufacturing [2] - The construction of three major international technology innovation centers (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area) is fostering a collaborative environment for talent, technology, and industry [2] - The deepening expansion of "Artificial Intelligence +" will drive AI technology's penetration into various sectors, including manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, and services, enhancing the collaborative upgrade of the industrial chain [2] Group 2: Modern Industrial System - The industrial system in China is evolving towards consolidating strengths and enhancing overall competitiveness, involving the transformation of traditional industries through digital and green technologies [3] - The continuous optimization of the industrial ecosystem will highlight the advantages of industry leaders and companies with genuine technological innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Domestic Demand Market Potential - Domestic demand, particularly consumption, plays a fundamental role in China's economic growth, with rising household income and innovative consumption scenarios creating numerous opportunities [4] - Diverse and quality consumption sectors such as the silver economy, ice and snow economy, leisure tourism, and service consumption are expected to benefit continuously [4] - Actions aimed at reducing logistics costs and promoting urban renewal will not only constitute effective investments but also enhance economic efficiency, creating opportunities in modern logistics, smart cities, and green buildings [4] Group 4: Efficiency and High-Level Opening Up - The continuous release of institutional dividends is crucial for high-quality development, with the deepening of the national unified market construction expected to eliminate regional barriers and enhance factor allocation efficiency [5] - The expansion of free trade zones, the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port, and the development of the Belt and Road Initiative will open broader market spaces for internationally competitive Chinese high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and financial services [5] Group 5: Green Transformation - The green transformation under the "dual carbon" goals is viewed as a high-certainty long-term development track, with the construction of a new energy system and the development of a national carbon market driving growth in wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and carbon monitoring services [6] - Energy-saving and carbon-reduction renovations, along with comprehensive solid waste management, will create sustained demand in the environmental technology and circular economy sectors [6] - New development models in real estate and the construction of "good houses" may present new opportunities in green buildings, smart homes, and urban operation services [6] Conclusion - With the Central Economic Work Conference convened, the coordinated efforts of various policies and the deepening of reform and opening up are expected to solidify and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, with the capital market serving as a vital platform for resource allocation and a window to observe economic structural changes [7]