格隆汇1月1日丨据日本共同网，日本经济团体联合会（经团联）会长筒井义信接受共同社等的年初采 访，指出在2026年春季劳资谈判（春斗）中也需要维持自2023年持续至今的高水平的涨薪。他强 调："将着重致力于提高基本工资。"经团联将在2026年1月汇总成为资方春斗方针的《经营劳动政策特 别委员会（经劳委）报告》，拟强调促进包括中小企业在内的"强劲涨薪势头进一步稳固"。截至2025年 10月，考虑物价变化的人均实际工资已连续10个月减少。筒井指出"尤其是以食品为主，物价持续飙 升，实际工资一直没能转为增长"，强调说"如果物价稳定，（涨薪）能进一步稳固下来，那么就能切实 进入增长阶段"。 ...

贝森特预计美国2025年全年GDP增速将达到3.5%，显示对经济增长的强劲预期。他对明年美国劳动者 的前景感到乐观。 在通胀方面，贝森特预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降。他承认物价水平已经非 常高，但认为实际工资的提升将能解决这一问题，为美国家庭带来实质性的购买力改善。 美联储主席人选即将揭晓 贝森特透露，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，猜测届时将正式宣布这一关键任命。本周可能还 有一到两次美联储的面试正在进行中。 周二（12月16日），美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期，预计2025年全年GDP增 速将达到3.5%，并对明年美国劳动者的前景感到乐观。 他预计2026年前六个月通胀将大幅下降，房租也将大幅下降，并认为尽管物价水平已经非常高，但实际 工资的提升将能解决这一问题。 同时，贝森特指出，特朗普将于1月初公布美联储主席人选，本周可能还有一到两次面试。这一关键任 命将影响未来数年美国货币政策走向，市场对此高度关注。 贝森特在表态中否认了外界对新任美联储主席独立性的质疑，称特朗普在面试中对政策相关问题一直非 常直率。他表示，候选人沃什和哈塞特都非常有资格，并驳斥了" ...

Core Insights - Japan's household consumption expenditure for two or more person households reached 303,000 yen in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.8% after adjusting for price changes, indicating positive growth for five consecutive months [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The primary driver of Japan's consumption growth is a significant rebound in automobile purchasing expenditures, attributed to a low comparative base from last year due to production halts caused by recalls [3] - Expenditures in transportation and communication also showed an upward trend, contributing to overall consumption growth [3] - In contrast, food-related spending continues to decline, influenced by last year's panic buying of rice and ongoing price increases, reflecting a cautious consumer behavior in daily necessities [3] Group 2: Income and Wage Analysis - The actual income of Japanese employee households was 511,000 yen, with consumption expenditure increasing by 6.6% year-on-year to 339,800 yen [6] - However, due to inflation outpacing nominal wage growth, real wage levels have been in negative growth for nine consecutive months, with a 1.4% year-on-year decline in September [6] - Despite nominal wages increasing by 1.9% to 297,000 yen, they lag behind the 3.4% rise in consumer prices [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Market experts suggest that Japan's overall consumption remains stable, with inflation expected to gradually ease by the end of the year, potentially bringing real wage levels closer to zero growth by next year [7] - The narrowing price increase in food and the effects of adjustments in gasoline taxes and energy subsidies are anticipated to manifest [7] - Although the actual growth in September was slightly below market expectations, the impacts of spring wage increases and summer bonuses are expected to support year-end consumption, with a moderate upward trend in future consumption growth anticipated [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in normalizing monetary policy amid rising uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs and declining real wages in Japan, which complicate the economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years, primarily due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5]. - The consumer inflation rate in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, which has consistently exceeded the BOJ's target of 2% for over three years [5]. - Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter due to a decline in exports, marking the first shrinkage in a year [6]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and 13 other countries starting August 1, which could further exacerbate uncertainties in Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Japan's GDP could potentially decline by 0.8 percentage points, with the automotive sector's profits expected to decrease by $19 billion [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Dilemma - The BOJ faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to control inflation and maintaining low rates to support economic growth amid increasing tariff uncertainties [8]. - Market analysts are divided on the BOJ's next steps, with some suggesting that the current economic conditions may delay any rate hikes [8]. - Some experts argue that the BOJ should maintain its current stance to buy time against tariff uncertainties, while others emphasize the need for a commitment to future rate increases [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma between raising interest rates to curb inflation and maintaining stable rates to support economic growth amid increasing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies [1][5]. Economic Data Summary - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in nearly two years and the fifth consecutive month of decline [3][4]. - The consumer inflation rate in Japan rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for over three years [4][5]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter due to a decline in exports, marking the first shrinkage in a year [4][5]. Tariff Impact Analysis - U.S. President Trump's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Japan and other countries could further exacerbate uncertainty in Japan's economic outlook [1][4]. - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Japan's GDP could decline by 0.8 percentage points, and profits in the automotive sector could decrease by $19 billion [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - There is increasing divergence in market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with some analysts suggesting that the current economic conditions may delay interest rate hikes [5][6]. - Some analysts argue that the high inflation rate relative to wage growth should prompt the Bank of Japan to commit to raising policy rates, which could strengthen the yen and improve purchasing power for consumers [5][6]. - Others suggest that the Bank of Japan should adopt a wait-and-see approach to navigate the uncertainties posed by tariffs, while also signaling a continued inclination towards tightening in the future [6].

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline in 20 months due to persistent inflation pressures eroding purchasing power [1] - The consumer inflation rate, which includes fresh food prices but excludes housing costs, rose by 4.0% in May, significantly outpacing the nominal wage growth of 1.0% [1][2] - Special payments, primarily volatile one-time bonuses, decreased by 18.7%, contributing to the slowdown in nominal wage growth [1] Group 2 - The divergence between real and nominal wages highlights the significant impact of inflation on workers' actual income, despite record-high wage negotiations [2] - The Japanese government is providing cash subsidies of 20,000 yen (approximately $139) to each adult and additional support for families with children to alleviate the burden of rising prices [3] - The ruling party aims to increase average annual salaries by 1 million yen by the fiscal year 2030, supporting capital investment to keep pace with inflation [3]

日本街头的上班族（资料图） 要让日本民众切实感受到收入增加的好处，工资的增长必须超过通胀率，实际工资要稳定在正值区间。 日本厚生劳动省的每月劳动统计显示，4月的实际工资（最终值、员工5人以上的事业所）比上年同月减 少2.0%，连续4个月负增长。 虽然出现继2024年之后再次超过5%的高水平，但中小企业为4.65%，未达到"6%以上"的目 标。日本中小企业雇用了70%左右日本国内的劳动力，而其中部分中小企业正在失去提高工资的余 力…… 日本的全国性工会组织"劳动组合总连合会" (简称：连合)7月3日公布了2025年春季劳资谈判（日本称： 春斗）回答的最终汇总结果。加薪率平均为5.25%，比上年提高0.15个百分点。虽然出现继2024年之后 再次超过5%的高水平，但中小企业为4.65%，未达到"6%以上"的目标。如果不能实现中小企业的加薪 的加速，实际工资的稳定增长将无从谈起。 连合汇总了截至7月1日上午10点收到的来自5162个工会组织的回答。包括提高基本工资和定期加薪在内 的加薪率达到了连合提出的作为2025年春季谈判目标的"整体5%以上"。 从明确区分上调基本工资和定期加薪的3594个工会组织的情况来看，上 ...

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Rising food prices have curbed demand, while catering and department stores have sustained growth [3][16] - Consumer confidence index fell to 35.2 in January 2025, the lowest in 16 months, indicating deepening economic concerns [2][7] - Inflation accelerated in January 2025, with CPI rising 4.0% year-on-year, driven by structural increases in food and energy prices [9][12] Macro Summary - In January 2025, the inflation rate accelerated again, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 35.2, marking a 16-month low since September 2023 [2][7] - Real wages in December 2024 increased by 0.3% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of growth, while nominal GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024 [2][12] - The January PPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year, continuing a moderate upward trend [13] Industry Summary - In the essential goods retail sector, food and beverage sales increased by 0.9% year-on-year, while drug and bath product sales rose by 4.9% [3][16] - The optional consumption sector, including dining and department stores, benefited from a surge in inbound tourism, with significant growth in same-store sales [5][16] Essential Companies Summary - In January, PPIH's same-store sales increased by 6.7%, while Aeon and 711 Japan reported increases of 2.0% and 0.9%, respectively [4][20] - The beer industry saw a high single-digit growth in traditional beer sales, driven by a record number of inbound tourists [4][23] Optional Companies Summary - Major dining companies like Sally's and Toridoll reported same-store sales growth of 17.3% and 12.5%, respectively, benefiting from the influx of tourists [5][32] - Uniqlo and ABC-MART reported same-store sales growth of 8.6% and 6.1%, respectively, driven by seasonal promotions and new product launches [5][36] Stock Market Summary - In January, most optional consumption stocks rose, while essential consumption stocks mostly fell [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, such as Asics and Fast Retailing [6]