【9月30日，美联储副主席杰斐逊称劳动力增长放缓或影响潜在GDP】9月30日，美联储副主席杰斐逊 表示，若劳动力增长持续放缓，会对潜在GDP造成影响。这种影响还会进一步波及产出缺口。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

加拿大央行：预计第二季度产出缺口将扩大至介于-1.5%和-0.5%之间，而第一季度为介于-1.0%和0%之 间。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. inflation** trends and the impact of **tariffs** on core inflation metrics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Performance**: U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed expectations since February, with June's CPI growth at **2.67%**, slightly above the expected **2.6%**. However, core CPI increased by only **0.23%**, below the anticipated **0.3%** [2][3] - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have a **lagging effect** and insufficient transmission on core inflation. The impact of tariffs imposed in April was only reflected in June data, with limited significance [4][5] - **Trade Chain Profitability**: Tariffs have eroded profit margins across the trade chain, affecting foreign manufacturers, traders, and U.S. consumers. The effective tax rate between China and the U.S. rose from **5.87% to nearly 20%** from April 2018 to September 2019, but much of this was absorbed by PPI and currency depreciation [5][6] - **Trade Responses**: U.S. traders have responded to tariff pressures by increasing imports ahead of tariffs and substituting imports from high-tariff countries with those from countries like Vietnam and Mexico [6][7] Additional Important Content - **Retail Data Insights**: Daily retail data indicates that prices for imported goods from China are rising, while those from Mexico are declining, largely due to zero-tariff benefits under the USMCA agreement, which accounts for approximately **12.2% to 12.3%** of U.S. imports [7][8] - **Core CPI Components**: Within core CPI, core goods prices are rising, but prices for housing services and non-housing core services are declining. This indicates a supply-driven increase in PCE price index, while demand remains weak [3][10] - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts will depend on output and inflation gaps. Currently, the likelihood of rate cuts is low unless unemployment rises and inflation decreases significantly [12][13] - **Future Rate Cuts**: There is an expectation of at least three rate cuts in the upcoming year, particularly after the new Fed chair takes office in May 2026, contrary to market expectations of only two cuts [13] Conclusion - The U.S. inflation landscape is influenced by various factors, including tariffs, trade responses, and monetary policy decisions. The interplay between these elements will be crucial in shaping future economic conditions and investment opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **supply-side reform** and **anti-involution competition** within various industries, particularly focusing on the **PCI (Price Change Index)** and its implications for industrial production and pricing dynamics [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Dynamics**: The current supply-side reform is characterized by a gradual optimization of excess capacity, with a focus on controlling new increments while optimizing existing stock [1][2]. 2. **Demand-Side Considerations**: There is a need to explore the willingness and ability of demand to absorb excess production, particularly in the context of new capacity and production levels [2][3]. 3. **Historical Context**: The call references historical cases from 1998 and 2015-2016, indicating that anti-involution competition can have a positive impact on the GCI (Gross Commodity Index) by enhancing supply-side optimization [3][4]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: The inflation data for June shows a positive trend, with the PCI reflecting unexpected stabilization, influenced by industrial consumption prices turning from decline to increase [7][8]. 5. **Price Stability**: The discussion emphasizes that price stability is contingent upon the intensity of supply-side reforms and the execution of related policies [8][19]. 6. **Macroeconomic Policies**: The macroeconomic policy framework is expected to focus on stabilizing market expectations, with potential for further interest rate cuts and liquidity injections [12][13]. 7. **Employment Focus**: Employment remains a core focus of policy considerations, especially in the context of achieving a target unemployment rate below 5.5% [13]. 8. **Investment and Consumption**: Investment and consumption are projected to maintain a stable trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5% for the year, despite potential downward pressure on exports [16][17]. 9. **Commodity Prices**: The call indicates a mixed outlook for commodity prices, with some agricultural products and crude oil showing potential for short-term opportunities [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The call highlights that certain sectors, such as petroleum, non-ferrous metals, and automotive manufacturing, are experiencing higher month-on-month growth rates [3]. - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends**: The CPI data indicates a slight increase in consumer prices, particularly in agricultural products, suggesting a moderate recovery in consumer demand [9][10]. - **External Factors**: The impact of external demand, particularly from the U.S., is noted as a significant factor that could influence domestic pricing and economic stability [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the industry.

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]

Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]

记者 辛圆 国家统计局周一发布数据显示，5月，中国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%，降幅较4月持平；工业品出厂价格（PPI）同比下降3.3%，降幅较4月扩大 0.6个百分点。 统计局在当天发布的新闻稿中解读称，5月份，能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点，是CPI同比下降的 主要因素。 除了能源价格的低迷，东方金诚研究发展部部门总监冯琳对智通财经表示，受季节性因素影响，5月蔬菜价格走低，加之上年同期基数偏高，当月蔬菜价格 同比降幅有所扩大。此外，5月鸡蛋价格同比降幅也在扩大。上述因素会抵消当月水果价格上涨带来的影响，推动5月食品CPI同比降幅扩大，这也在一定程 度上拖累了CPI。 "综合来看，6月CPI同比有可能继续处于负值区间，下半年推动物价水平合理回升将成为宏观政策的一个重要目标，这也将为财政加力促消费及央行进一步 降息打开空间。"冯琳在采访中说。 浙商证券首席经济学家李超在研究报告中指出，居民部门的消费需求仍处于修复的关键节点，随着增量逆周期政策发力和消费需求的渐次改善，并考虑经济 运行距离潜在增速尚有一段距离，在产出缺口逐步弥合的过程中， ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]

日本央行副行长内田真一：日本的产出缺口将维持在目前水平左右，随后将在日本央行三年预测期结束 前，即至2027财年末，逐步恢复改善。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that the output gap may improve by the end of the projected three-year period [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's assessment suggests a potential positive shift in economic conditions, which could lead to an improved output gap [1]