All right, folks. Right here on set, uh, switching gears slightly. Joining us, Steve Moran, Steve Myin, I beg your pardon, Federal Reserve Governor and, uh, friend.Welcome, Steve. Good to see you. >> Good to see you.Thanks for having me. >> Um, so today's jobs numbers, they are very good numbers. I guess my question is to the extent you can talk to it, does that mean you can't lower interest rates because the economy showed good because it's 4.3% unemployment or the jobs numbers are good.Does that mean you ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Milan indicates that regulatory relaxation has led to an expansion of the output gap [1] Group 1 - The relaxation of regulations is identified as a significant factor contributing to the widening output gap in the economy [1]

日本央行：将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度，适时实施货币政策。前景面临的风险包括贸易 政策对海外经济体的影响、国内企业工资和定价行为，以及金融和外汇市场的发展。日本金融体系总体 稳定。全球经济前景仍存在不确定性，例如贸易政策的影响，这可能导致供给端进口价格上涨。中长期 通胀预期很可能继续温和上升。产出缺口有望按趋势改善，并适度扩大。 ...

Core Insights - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, indicated that a slowdown in labor force growth could impact potential GDP [1] - This impact may further affect the output gap [1] Labor Market Implications - A sustained decline in labor force growth is highlighted as a significant concern for economic performance [1] - The relationship between labor growth and potential GDP suggests that labor market dynamics are crucial for economic stability [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada anticipates that the output gap will widen in the second quarter to a range between -1.5% and -0.5%, compared to a range of -1.0% and 0% in the first quarter [1] Economic Indicators - The expected output gap indicates a potential slowdown in economic activity, suggesting that the economy may be operating below its full capacity [1] - The widening of the output gap from the first to the second quarter reflects a deteriorating economic outlook [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. inflation** trends and the impact of **tariffs** on core inflation metrics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Performance**: U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed expectations since February, with June's CPI growth at **2.67%**, slightly above the expected **2.6%**. However, core CPI increased by only **0.23%**, below the anticipated **0.3%** [2][3] - **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have a **lagging effect** and insufficient transmission on core inflation. The impact of tariffs imposed in April was only reflected in June data, with limited significance [4][5] - **Trade Chain Profitability**: Tariffs have eroded profit margins across the trade chain, affecting foreign manufacturers, traders, and U.S. consumers. The effective tax rate between China and the U.S. rose from **5.87% to nearly 20%** from April 2018 to September 2019, but much of this was absorbed by PPI and currency depreciation [5][6] - **Trade Responses**: U.S. traders have responded to tariff pressures by increasing imports ahead of tariffs and substituting imports from high-tariff countries with those from countries like Vietnam and Mexico [6][7] Additional Important Content - **Retail Data Insights**: Daily retail data indicates that prices for imported goods from China are rising, while those from Mexico are declining, largely due to zero-tariff benefits under the USMCA agreement, which accounts for approximately **12.2% to 12.3%** of U.S. imports [7][8] - **Core CPI Components**: Within core CPI, core goods prices are rising, but prices for housing services and non-housing core services are declining. This indicates a supply-driven increase in PCE price index, while demand remains weak [3][10] - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts will depend on output and inflation gaps. Currently, the likelihood of rate cuts is low unless unemployment rises and inflation decreases significantly [12][13] - **Future Rate Cuts**: There is an expectation of at least three rate cuts in the upcoming year, particularly after the new Fed chair takes office in May 2026, contrary to market expectations of only two cuts [13] Conclusion - The U.S. inflation landscape is influenced by various factors, including tariffs, trade responses, and monetary policy decisions. The interplay between these elements will be crucial in shaping future economic conditions and investment opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **supply-side reform** and **anti-involution competition** within various industries, particularly focusing on the **PCI (Price Change Index)** and its implications for industrial production and pricing dynamics [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Dynamics**: The current supply-side reform is characterized by a gradual optimization of excess capacity, with a focus on controlling new increments while optimizing existing stock [1][2]. 2. **Demand-Side Considerations**: There is a need to explore the willingness and ability of demand to absorb excess production, particularly in the context of new capacity and production levels [2][3]. 3. **Historical Context**: The call references historical cases from 1998 and 2015-2016, indicating that anti-involution competition can have a positive impact on the GCI (Gross Commodity Index) by enhancing supply-side optimization [3][4]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: The inflation data for June shows a positive trend, with the PCI reflecting unexpected stabilization, influenced by industrial consumption prices turning from decline to increase [7][8]. 5. **Price Stability**: The discussion emphasizes that price stability is contingent upon the intensity of supply-side reforms and the execution of related policies [8][19]. 6. **Macroeconomic Policies**: The macroeconomic policy framework is expected to focus on stabilizing market expectations, with potential for further interest rate cuts and liquidity injections [12][13]. 7. **Employment Focus**: Employment remains a core focus of policy considerations, especially in the context of achieving a target unemployment rate below 5.5% [13]. 8. **Investment and Consumption**: Investment and consumption are projected to maintain a stable trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5% for the year, despite potential downward pressure on exports [16][17]. 9. **Commodity Prices**: The call indicates a mixed outlook for commodity prices, with some agricultural products and crude oil showing potential for short-term opportunities [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The call highlights that certain sectors, such as petroleum, non-ferrous metals, and automotive manufacturing, are experiencing higher month-on-month growth rates [3]. - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends**: The CPI data indicates a slight increase in consumer prices, particularly in agricultural products, suggesting a moderate recovery in consumer demand [9][10]. - **External Factors**: The impact of external demand, particularly from the U.S., is noted as a significant factor that could influence domestic pricing and economic stability [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the industry.

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]

Core CPI and Economic Policy - The core CPI shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the increasing impact of domestic demand on prices [1][5] - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] CPI and PPI Trends - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [2][7] - Energy prices dropped by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] Food Prices and Consumer Demand - Food prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with pork prices rising by 3.1% but showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [4] - The analysis indicates that consumer demand is in a critical recovery phase, with expectations of gradual improvement in consumption as counter-cyclical policies take effect [4][5] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Certain sectors are experiencing marginal price improvements, with some consumer goods seeing price stabilization or increases [8] - High-tech product demand is expanding, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] Future Price Outlook - Short-term inflation may face dual pressures, with expectations of continued negative growth in CPI and PPI in the second and third quarters [9] - Recent financial policies may signal the start of a new round of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [9]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In May, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline remaining consistent compared to April [1] - The main factor contributing to the CPI decline was a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which impacted the CPI by approximately 0.47 percentage points [1] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with significant declines in fresh vegetable prices (down 8.3%) and a smaller increase in pork prices (up 3.1%) [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Future Outlook - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, reflecting a slight improvement compared to the previous month [3] - Future price trends may be supported by consumption-boosting policies, although potential negative impacts from the US-China tariff situation and "export to domestic" pressures should be monitored [3] - There is a possibility that the CPI may remain in negative territory in June, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing price levels in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the drop widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1] - Some industries are experiencing improved supply-demand relationships, leading to price recoveries in certain sectors, particularly in consumer goods [4] - The future trajectory of industrial prices will largely depend on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies, especially those supporting the real estate sector [4]