近日，全球家庭护理板块首家上市挂牌公司——圣贝拉集团(02508)正式披露其登陆港交所后的首份业 绩答卷。在宏观经济承压、生育率持续走低的大环境下，这家产后护理龙头不仅成功抵御宏观因素震 荡，更一举交出"逆袭级"成绩单。 政策红利加持下的业绩数据跃升 今年7月底，国家育儿补贴方案正式公布，为母婴行业带来重大利好。据光大证券研究所测算，国家育 儿补贴政策有望拉动社会消费品零售总额增长约0.14-0.2个百分点。 在育儿补贴、延长产假、托育费用个税抵扣等"真金白银"政策与女性"悦己"意识、家庭结构变化的双重 催化下，中国产后护理及修复行业渗透率持续提升。根据沙利文报告显示，2025年家庭护理行业的规模 将增长至人民币8,053亿元。其中产后护理及修复行业依旧保持强劲增长势头，根据弗若斯特沙利文的 预测，2025年家庭护理及修复行业的规模将增长至人民币793亿元，预计2025年至2030年的行业複合年 增長率将达到20.4%。华泰证券分析师在最新研报中认为，家庭护理行业板块增长空间在未来仍将进一 步打开。 作为家庭护理头部企业的圣贝拉，率先站上行业风口。相较于其他月子中心，圣贝拉以涵盖新生儿护 理、产后修复、健康食 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the comprehensive family care ecosystem developed by Shengbela, which spans postpartum care, daily family care, women's health functional foods, children's care, and elderly care, aiming to provide a one-stop health and care solution for modern families [1][2] Market Growth - The family care industry in China is projected to grow from RMB 392.8 billion in 2019 to RMB 711.3 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [1] - The market size is expected to continue rising, reaching RMB 805.3 billion in 2025 and RMB 1,443.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 12.4% [1] Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships - Shengbela has strategically acquired the "Guanghetang" brand to enter the health food sector, focusing on e-commerce sales of women's health products [1][2] - The company is also investing in Nexus Media to enhance its digital marketing capabilities, indicating a focus on both internal market share growth and external expansion [2] Business Model Innovation - Shengbela employs a light asset operation strategy by establishing postpartum care centers within existing high-end hotels, significantly reducing fixed asset investments [2] - The company utilizes a "service + retail + AI" strategy to enhance customer lifetime value and single customer contribution, integrating AI technology for personalized product recommendations [2][3] Financial Performance - Shengbela's revenue has shown steady growth, with projected revenues of RMB 4.72 billion, RMB 5.60 billion, and RMB 7.99 billion for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 30% [3] - Adjusted net profits are expected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.45 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 0.42 billion in 2024, with gross margins increasing from 29.9% to 33.9% during the same period [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 11.04 billion, RMB 14.80 billion, and RMB 19.57 billion, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.09 billion, RMB 2.00 billion, and RMB 3.19 billion [4] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 39.3, 21.3, and 13.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong investment potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company Saint Bella [2] Core Insights - Saint Bella is building a comprehensive family care ecosystem, expanding from postpartum care to various health services for women and children, aiming to provide a one-stop health and care solution for modern families [3][20] - The family care market in China is projected to grow significantly, from RMB 3,928 billion in 2019 to RMB 7,113 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [3][27] - The company has adopted an asset-light operational strategy, partnering with high-end hotels to reduce capital expenditure while enhancing service flexibility [5][36] - Saint Bella's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 799 million in 2024 to RMB 1,957 million by 2027, with a forecasted net profit of RMB 3.19 billion in 2027 [7][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella was founded in 2017, focusing on high-end postpartum care through a light asset model in collaboration with luxury hotels [16][20] - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy, including Saint Bella, Baby Bella, and Bella Isla, to cater to different consumer segments [20][36] Main Business and Industry - The family care industry in China is expected to reach RMB 14,438 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2025 to 2030 [24][27] - The postpartum care segment is a significant contributor to Saint Bella's revenue, with projected income from postpartum care services increasing from RMB 3.45 billion in 2022 to RMB 5.36 billion in 2024 [34][46] Investment and Outlook - Saint Bella plans to expand its market presence internationally, having opened its first overseas center in Singapore and planning further expansion into the U.S. [92] - The company is investing in AI and digital technologies to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency, aiming to create a tech-enabled family care platform [91][92]

Industry Overview - The report highlights that the apparel consumption in China is expected to show a significant increase in quality and trend integration by autumn and winter of 2025, with a total consumption amount of 386.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1][18][22] - The apparel industry is experiencing a dual-driven growth model, with internal factors driven by technological innovation and emotional value, while external factors are supported by AI technology across the entire industry chain [1][25][28] Core Consumer Groups - High-consumption groups are identified as the core driving force for Tmall apparel, characterized by their pursuit of quality, novelty, and trendiness, with a TGI (Target Group Index) of 292 for quality luxury purchases and 212 for trend exploration [2][34][36] - The average number of items purchased by high-consumption groups has increased significantly, with a notable rise in the number of categories and brands they engage with [2][39] Category Trends - The report outlines that functional and aesthetic considerations are becoming increasingly important, with specific trends noted in categories such as down jackets, jackets/coats, knitwear, and loungewear [3][47] - For down jackets, the sales cycle has extended, with a focus on price ranges of 200-600 yuan for women's and 200-800 yuan for men's, while emphasizing functional technology and diverse scenarios [3][52] - The knitwear category is seeing rapid growth in the 1000 yuan price range, with a shift towards high-quality materials and intricate designs [3][47] Style Trends - The report identifies several emerging style trends, including "Country Calling," "Light Punk," "Demure," and "Cozycore," each characterized by unique aesthetics and material preferences [4][5] - Emotional value is highlighted as a significant factor in consumer preferences, with styles reflecting a desire for comfort and cultural identity [4][5] Merchant Strategies - Tmall suggests that merchants focus on "trend co-creation and omnichannel marketing," utilizing tools like TMIC to capture material, design, and scenario trends while leveraging AI technology to optimize supply chains and marketing strategies [5][28] - The emphasis is placed on product innovation and differentiation in style, alongside targeted marketing efforts during key promotional periods [5][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][9] Core Views - The company has significantly improved its profitability, with a 47.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 126.6 billion yuan, driven by its "comprehensive finance + medical and elderly care" strategy and a rebound in the capital market [1] - The company plans to distribute an annual dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024, marking a 5% increase and a cash dividend payout ratio of 37.9%, demonstrating its long-term investment return capability [1] - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance has increased by 28.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in individual insurance and bancassurance channels [2] - The company has optimized its cost of risk (COR), achieving a 2.3 percentage point improvement in the comprehensive cost ratio to 98.3% [3] - The company has adjusted its investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and risk discount rates to 8.5% and 7.5% for traditional and non-traditional insurance products, respectively, enhancing the credibility of its valuation [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 1,028.9 billion yuan, a 12.6% increase year-on-year, and is projected to continue growing in the following years [1][5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.72 yuan in 2025, 8.57 yuan in 2026, and 9.26 yuan in 2027, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [4][5] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 12,957.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 14,580.2 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7]