特朗普的关税大棒并非首次砸向加拿大。早在今年7月10日，他便在社交媒体发布致加拿大总理卡尼的公开信，以"芬太尼流入美国"和"不公平贸易行 为"为由，威胁自8月1日起加征35%关税。彼时，这一数字被外界视为谈判筹码，但白宫最终选择"兑现威胁"，将关税从25%的"试探性水位"直接推至35% 的"危险红线"。 8月1日，华盛顿的盛夏被一场突如其来的关税风暴搅得愈发燥热。美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%骤然提升至35%，白宫 声明中"应对加拿大持续不作为"的措辞，与渥太华"坚定捍卫本国利益"的表态形成尖锐对冲。这场始于芬太尼问题、裹挟着贸易逆差焦虑与选举政治算计 的关税博弈，正将北美自贸区推入前所未有的不确定性漩涡。 北美自贸区的裂痕与全球贸易的寒蝉效应 从25%到35%：关税数字背后的多重博弈 特朗普的关税升级，无疑在北美自贸区（USMCA）的玻璃幕墙上砸出第一道裂痕。尽管白宫声称"符合USMCA规则的产品可豁免关税"，但加拿大贸易谈 判代表团已紧急赴美磋商，试图争取更广泛的豁免清单。更深远的影响在于，美国的"关税霸凌"正在催生全球贸易的"寒蝉效应"：欧盟、日本等经济体纷 纷加速推进供应链 ...

Economic Overview - Recent economic data in the U.S. shows marginal changes that do not match the volatility in asset prices and macro narratives, indicating a potential economic slowdown[3] - Tariff inflation has not materialized as expected, and the divergence between hard and soft data is beginning to correct, but this does not imply a weakening economy[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The probability of tariff inflation being lower than expected is increasing, with oil prices becoming a highly volatile variable affecting this outlook[3] - The U.S. effective tariff rate has significantly increased, but the transmission mechanism to the real economy remains unclear[12] Employment and Consumption Trends - The baseline scenario suggests a systematic weakening of the U.S. economy rather than a clear fracture in any specific sector, with service consumption and employment showing signs of caution[4] - Non-farm payroll risks are increasing, with potential monthly growth dropping to around 50,000 or even negative levels[4] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.[5] - Trump's domestic policies face greater resistance, which may lead to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected monetary easing from the Federal Reserve[5] Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of decoupling, with rising unemployment rates despite stable non-farm payroll data, indicating a potential shift in labor supply dynamics[27] - Permanent unemployment numbers are approaching 2 million, reflecting a concerning upward trend in the labor market[35] Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is declining, as evidenced by a significant drop in auto sales and rising savings rates, indicating a cautious approach to spending[44] - The contribution of government social benefits to disposable income growth is concerning, as it suggests increased reliance on social safety nets rather than labor income[46]

Core Viewpoint - The administrative order from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in April 2025 has plunged over 4,700 international students into an identity crisis, highlighting the arbitrary nature of policy enforcement and judicial processes in U.S. immigration history [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Overview - In March 2025, the Trump administration initiated a "criminal screening" operation targeting international students, resulting in the termination of SEVIS records for over 4,700 students since January 20, 2025, leading to loss of legal status and visa revocation [2][3]. - Many students were caught off guard, with some unaware of their SEVIS termination until notified by their schools, creating widespread panic within the international student community [2][3]. Group 2: Legal Response and Developments - In response to perceived injustices, international students began filing lawsuits against the Trump administration, with many judges siding with the students on grounds of "procedural injustice" [4]. - On April 25, 2025, the Trump administration temporarily restored the SEVIS records of some students, indicating a shift in policy following legal pressures, although concerns about ongoing risks remained [4][5]. Group 3: Ongoing Concerns and Future Implications - Despite some students regaining legal status, uncertainty persists as the government retains the authority to terminate SEVIS records for various reasons, leaving many students cautious and anxious [5][6]. - The incident has prompted some students to consider accelerating their graduation or transferring to institutions in other countries due to fears of further policy changes [6][8]. Group 4: Broader Context and Reactions - The incident reflects deeper issues within U.S. immigration policy under the Trump administration, which has focused on strict measures against both illegal and legal immigrants, impacting the academic environment [6][7]. - Prominent universities, including Harvard, have publicly opposed the government's actions, emphasizing the need to protect academic independence and constitutional rights [7][8].