Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 Key Points 1. Price Range Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [2] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [2] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [2] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [2] 2. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - Strategy: Short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Sell UR2601, buy UR2601P1850, sell UR2601C1950. - Hedging ratios: 25% for futures, 50% for put options, and relevant for call options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1800 - 1950 for futures, 15 - 20 for put options, 45 - 60 for call options [2] Procurement Management - Scenario: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to order situation. - Strategy: Buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. - Hedging tools and directions: Buy UR2601, sell UR2601P1650. - Hedging ratios: 50% for futures, 75% for put options. - Suggested entry intervals: 1650 - 1750 for futures, 20 - 25 for put options [2] 3. Core Market Analysis - Core contradiction: In November, high urea daily production under policy support and profit repair pressures prices, but export policy adjustments relieve the pressure, and rising coal prices also support urea. The market is in a range between fundamentals and policy, with short - term prices expected to oscillate [3] - Bullish factors: Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to show wide - range oscillations with stronger downside support due to speculative pricing [4] - Bearish factors: Domestic policy pressure requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is in a situation with support below and suppression above. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, it may follow the overall strength of commodities. In the medium - term, with the gradual opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound, but the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for urea in the monthly period is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price range is 2200 - 2400, volatility is 20.01%, and historical percentile is 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with volatility of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about urea price drops, for a long - position inventory, to prevent inventory superposition losses, 25% of UR2509 can be sold at 1800 - 1950 to lock in profits. Also, 50% of UR2509P1850 can be bought at 15 - 20, and 50% of UR2509C1950 can be sold at 45 - 60 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement standing inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position inventory, 50% of UR2509 can be bought at 1750 - 1900 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. 75% of UR2509P1750 can be sold at 20 - 25 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities. Urea may follow this trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, with export提货 by traders, inventory is unlikely to accumulate significantly, and factory quotes are rising slightly, supporting the price. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3.4利多 and 利空 Interpretations - **利多**: Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculation, the futures are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the lower support has increased [4] - **利空**: Domestic policies require factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [4]

张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素套保策略表 尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/15 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 【利空解读】 受国内政策压制，协会要求工厂低价销售尿素，给现货情绪带来负面影响。 . 免責声明 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | ...

Report Date - The report date is April 3, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Recent urea spot transactions are active, and the spot price has been rising. The small-grain prices in Shandong and Henan are around 1900. As the price rises, the trading volume weakens. The strong expectation has been gradually reflected in the valuation, and it is necessary to observe whether the grass-roots demand around the Tomb-Sweeping Festival can exceed expectations. The urea price will continue to fluctuate. This week, the domestic daily urea production is expected to be around 190,000 tons, running at a high level. In terms of demand, the rice planting in the south is advancing, and agricultural demand is following up. In the industrial sector, compound fertilizer plants are in the high-nitrogen fertilizer production stage, and their purchases are relatively good, but the high-price raw materials have increased the fear of high prices among compound fertilizer plants, and they are becoming more cautious in replenishing stocks. Overall, the urea price will continue to fluctuate, and the expected price range will be maintained. During the agricultural demand season, the market is highly speculative, and the fundamentals are in a gradually balanced supply-demand pattern [4][5] Price Range Forecast - Urea price range is predicted to be 1800 - 2000, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 19.65% and a 3-year historical percentile of 20.1% - Methanol price range is predicted to be 2400 - 2600, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 18.49% and a 3-year historical percentile of 42.6% - Polypropylene price range is predicted to be 7200 - 7500, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 6.49% and a 3-year historical percentile of 6.3% - Plastic price range is predicted to be 7500 - 7800, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 6.93% and a 3-year historical percentile of 1.4% [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, sell 25% of UR2505 and UR2505P1 at 1850 - 1950 to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy 50% of put options and sell 50% of UR2505P1850 to prevent price drops and reduce costs; sell 45 - 60% of UR2505C1950 - For high finished product inventory and fear of price rise, buy 50% of UR2505 at 1750 - 1850 to lock in procurement costs [3] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and procurement based on orders, sell 75% of UR2505P1750 at 20 - 25 to collect premiums, reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Spot transactions are active and prices are rising, but trading volume weakens as prices go up. The strong expectation is reflected in the valuation, and the follow-up demand around the Tomb-Sweeping Festival needs to be observed. Daily production is high, agricultural demand is following up, and industrial demand is cautious. The price will continue to fluctuate [4] 利多解读 - Agricultural demand continues to maintain extremely high demand [5] 利空解读 - Agricultural demand will weaken before and after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [6]