今年以来已成立230只新基金，发行规模合计超2100亿元。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 伴随着节后开市的脚步，公募基金发行市场已经悄然热闹起来。 Wind数据显示，以认购起始日统计，年初以来的公募基金新发数量和规模双双创下近三年同期新 高。 这不仅为马年A股的开局奠定了稳中有升的基调，也释放出居民储蓄加速向资本市场转移的积极信 号。 对比来看，2025年前两个月，新发基金仅有177只；2024年同期为212只；而2023年则为189只。 首周新品密集亮相，权益类基金成绝对主力 节后基金发行市场的首个显著特征，是产品上新的高密度与快节奏。 Wind数据显示，以认购起始日统计，仅在2026年2月24日马年首个交易日当天，就有18只新基金集中 启动发行，同步启动认购。 如果将视线放宽到首个交易周，2月24日至27日期间计划发行的新基数量多达36只。 在这些新发产品中，权益类基金占据了绝对的C位。 具体来看，这36只基金中包含了14只主动权益类基金、11只被动股票指数基金，合计占比近7成。 对比往年数据，2026年的基金发行节奏出现了显著的前移——以认购起始日统计，2026年头两个月的 新发基金数量 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 春节期间A股停牌，港股开启节后首个交易日。港股整体出现调整，但AI应用和机器人板块逆势大涨， 这符合我之前对市场的预期，因为春晚节目中AI应用以及机器人大放异彩，大幅提升了投资者对于这 两个方向的信心。 恒生科技指数出现较大幅度回调，主要原因是恒生科技指数的成分股主要是互联网巨头，盈利主要来自 于消费层面，但当前社会消费品零售总额增速较低，消费增速低拖累这些科技互联网公司的表现。所以 过去半年，恒生科技指数出现了比较大的调整，外卖大战让资本对这些互联网巨头的"含科量"产生质 疑，很多资金从核心科技指数、一些互联网巨头中流出，寻找纯正的AI应用和机器人等科技创新板 块，这反映出一部分资金的态度。 港股首日出现较大幅度调整并不意味着马年港股没有机会，马年A股和港股都有望延续这轮慢牛、长牛 走势，继续出现较多的投资机会。去年年底我发布了2026年十大预言，明确讲到2026年美股高位波动的 风险加大，A股和港股则会延续慢牛行情的特征，出现一定的赚钱效应。我在过去十年发布了10次十大 预言，其中8次都得到了完美的验证，只有2022年和2023年这 ...

Group 1 - The market shows resilience despite recent cooling, with a "spring offensive" anticipated as credit issuance peaks in January, potentially reaching 4 trillion RMB [1][8] - The first quarter is typically a "window" for companies to disclose earnings, allowing for market momentum as most companies do not report formal earnings during this period [1][8] - The discussion around investment returns during the previous year's Spring Festival has created a "wealth effect," attracting more retail investors into the market [1][8] Group 2 - A slow bull market has been established, with investor confidence gradually increasing, and skepticism about the bull market diminishing [2][8] - By 2026, approximately 50 trillion RMB in bank deposits will mature, prompting investors to choose between low-interest renewals or reallocating funds into stocks, bonds, or funds [2][8] - This shift indicates a potential acceleration of capital moving from savings to the stock market, providing additional liquidity [2][8] Group 3 - In 2025, technology stocks are expected to outperform traditional sectors, which are struggling during the economic transition [3][9] - New industries such as AI and semiconductor sectors are thriving, while traditional industries face significant challenges [3][9] Group 4 - The market is expected to deepen in 2026, with more sectors likely to experience rotation, as many traditional stocks are at historical lows and may present investment opportunities [4][10] - Investors will need to decide between high-flying tech stocks and undervalued traditional stocks, leading to diverse investment strategies [4][10] Group 5 - The U.S. financial market is experiencing a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, raising concerns about the stability of the dollar [5][11] - The rise in gold prices, nearing $4,800 per ounce, reflects a growing distrust in the dollar, with predictions of further increases in gold prices [5][11] Group 6 - A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks, which in turn will outperform U.S. stocks, as domestic investors seek new opportunities in the capital market [6][12] - The potential for a "golden decade" in the A-share market is supported by the shift of residential savings into capital markets [6][12]

2026 年是大有可为的一年，也是机遇大于风险的一年。从投资机遇来看，经过连续多年的调整，很多 传统白马股已经逐步跌出了投资机会。例如消费白马股、新能源龙头股，以及保险、券商等板块，在过 去一年整体表现不佳，被市场戏称为"老白马""老银行"。但正是这些长期基本面扎实、估值处于低位的 板块，可能会孕育新的机会。 在 2025 年下半年，我在北京参加了一位被誉为"民间股神"的投资人新书发布会，并与他进行了一次对 话。他当时依然坚定看好传统消费和价值股，认为这些公司盈利能力强、品牌价值高，虽然短期处于低 谷，但长期投资价值依然很高。他认为，过几年回头来看，这些判断会被市场验证。我在一定程度上赞 同他的观点。这类传统消费股具备稳定的分红能力和较强的品牌护城河，长期来看仍然具备投资价值， 但也会出现明显分化，非龙头企业可能在行业低谷期被淘汰。 此外，包括新能源、保险、券商等板块，在 2026 年也有可能迎来一定程度的估值修复机会。但预计这 类修复更多是对前期超跌的修正，其涨幅和弹性可能不及科技股。科技股依然是 2026 年的重要投资主 线之一，但已经不再是唯一主线。2026 年将有更多板块轮动表现，包括军工、有色等板块 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 4100-point mark for the first time in 10 years, with a trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][6] - The market has experienced a 16-day consecutive rise, suggesting that the 4000-point level is not the end of a market cycle but rather the beginning of a new one [1][6] - The bullish trend is supported by significant inflows of capital, particularly from retail investors, following a period of market adjustment in December [1][6] Group 2 - The underlying logic supporting the bull market in 2026 remains unchanged, including policy support, a shift of household savings to the capital market, and continuous foreign investment [2][7] - The bull market is expected to fulfill three historical missions: enhancing wealth for approximately 300 million stock investors and 700 million mutual fund investors, stabilizing the real estate market, and promoting technological innovation [2][8] - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize and recover, particularly in core areas and first-tier cities, as investors may use returns from the stock market to improve housing conditions [8] Group 3 - The bull market is projected to last 3 to 5 years, or even 5 to 10 years, with annual growth rates expected to be between 10% and 20%, fostering a sustainable profit-making environment for investors [3][9] - Compared to the high valuations in the US stock market, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are still near historical average valuation levels, indicating significant upside potential [3][9] - The transition from a golden investment period in the real estate market to a new golden investment period in the stock market is underway, driven by the shift of household savings [4][9] Group 4 - The bull market typically progresses through several stages, with the current phase characterized by a gradual upward trend and reduced market divergence expected in 2026 [10] - Key indicators to monitor include the issuance of new funds exceeding 10 billion yuan in a single day and daily trading volumes rising above 4 trillion yuan, which could signal a need for caution [10] - The market is currently in a continuation phase rather than a late-stage phase, suggesting that investors should maintain confidence and patience while focusing on quality stocks or funds [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current slow bull market in A-shares is expected to continue for two to five years, with an annual index increase of 10% to 20% being common [1][7] - The market has entered a new phase, transitioning from a structure bull to a comprehensive bull market, with various sectors expected to perform, not just technology stocks [2][8] - The recent political meetings have set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, which will further support the capital market and economic growth [3][9] Group 2 - There is a significant shift of household savings towards the capital market, with over 165 trillion yuan in deposits and a notable increase in new stock accounts and fund sales [4][10] - The stock market is seen as a historical investment opportunity, especially as the real estate investment phase ends, emphasizing the need for investors to adopt rational investment strategies [5][11] - The technology innovation sectors, including humanoid robots and AI, remain key investment themes, while consumer stocks are also expected to recover in valuation [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, at the 8th Member Conference of the China Securities Association has positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the capital market and enhancing investor confidence, which is crucial for the market's development in 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market is characterized by a significant increase in trading activity, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor participation [2][8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, reflecting a preliminary formation of a slow bull market, which is expected to solidify investor confidence [2][8]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Wu Qing emphasized the need to moderately relax capital constraints for high-quality securities companies and optimize regulatory mechanisms, which is vital for the high-quality development of the securities industry [1][7]. - The integration and collaboration among securities firms through mergers and acquisitions are seen as essential steps towards creating "carrier-level" brokerages, which will alleviate competitive pressures and enhance industry quality [1][7]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable trend of household savings shifting towards the capital market, with nearly 25 million new stock accounts opened by the end of November 2025, and monthly account openings exceeding 2 million in some months [3][9]. - The issuance of equity funds has surpassed that of fixed-income funds, with new fund subscriptions reaching 1.06 trillion units in the first 11 months, indicating a shift in asset allocation among residents [3][9]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The current bull market is expected to drive three key missions: promoting consumer spending, improving household balance sheets through wealth effects, and providing efficient financing platforms for innovative enterprises [4][10]. - The healthy development of the capital market is crucial for supporting the real economy and technological innovation, with recent successful IPOs of prominent companies laying a foundation for future growth [4][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend of capital inflow from both domestic and foreign investors is anticipated to accelerate as the market transitions from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026 [5][11]. - The performance of brokerage stocks, typically a market barometer, is expected to improve in 2026 as macroeconomic policies take effect and investor confidence strengthens [6][12].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the CSI A500 Index rising by 0.19% [1] - The semiconductor sector showed strength, particularly in storage chips, while the pharmaceutical sector continued its strong performance [1] - Conversely, stocks related to controlled nuclear fusion saw a collective decline [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index exhibited mixed results, with 13 ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and 3 surpassing 3.1 billion yuan [1] - Specific transaction volumes for A500 ETFs included 3.691 billion yuan for A500 ETF Fund, 3.253 billion yuan for CSI A500 ETF, and 3.135 billion yuan for A500 ETF Huatai-PB [1] Earnings Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming third-quarter reports will show a rebound in profit growth across most industries due to a low base from the previous year, which is expected to bolster market confidence [1] - There is a noted shift of household savings towards the capital market, creating a sustained source of incremental funds [1] - The short-term outlook for the A-share market is expected to be characterized by steady fluctuations upward, with close attention needed on policy, funding, and external market changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market opened high but declined, with the CSI A500 index dropping by 0.5%. The financial sector showed resilience, particularly bank stocks, while the photovoltaic sector surged and liquor concept stocks strengthened. Conversely, chip concept stocks exhibited weakness [1]. Market Performance - The CSI A500 index ETF saw a slight decline, with 15 related ETFs trading over 100 million yuan, and 3 exceeding 3.1 billion yuan in trading volume. Specific trading volumes for A500 ETFs were 4.265 billion yuan, 3.214 billion yuan, and 3.107 billion yuan respectively [1]. Earnings Outlook - As October approaches, the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profit growth across most industries due to a low base from the previous year. This is anticipated to bolster market confidence [1]. Capital Market Trends - There is a gradual shift of household savings towards the capital market, creating a sustained source of incremental funds. The A-share market is expected to experience steady fluctuations, with new investment opportunities emerging [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data and inflation returning below 3% [1] - There is a possibility of a global central bank rate cut wave following the Fed's decision, with expectations for the People's Bank of China to have room for monetary policy easing to support the economy and stabilize the real estate and stock markets [2] - The shift in monetary policy may lead to a significant transfer of household savings to capital markets, as lower deposit rates make equities and funds more attractive, with a recommendation for investors to allocate around 20% of their portfolio to gold assets [3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on global assets includes initial gains in U.S. stock indices followed by a quick pullback, while the dollar index experienced a drop but rebounded by the end of the trading session [2] - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts typically support risk asset prices and alleviate capital outflow pressures in emerging markets, although the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may limit the extent of dollar depreciation [4] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain stability, with a reduced risk of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, as the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential alleviates depreciation pressure [4]