证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 9 月 16 日 如何衡量居民增量资金入市热度和潜力？ ——A 股投资启示录（三十） 当前银行存款和理财产品收益率处于历史低位，而股票市场赚钱效应持续积累， A 股内在回报率持续提升，规模庞大的增量资金极有可能涌入股票和基金市场推 动 A 股迎来一轮大级别上行行情。基于此，我们构建了增量资金入市的潜力和热 度指标，目前来看潜力指标尚处于历史均值以下，热度指标处于均值+1 倍标准差 以下，距离历史高位仍有较大增长空间。当前融资余额持续增长、私募基金规模 持续攀升、个人投资者开户数活跃，成为当前增量资金入市的主要渠道。展望后 市，偏股公募基金有望继续接力，外资也有望继续净流入成为重要的增量资金来 源。参考前两轮牛市，估算潜在增量资金仍有 5.4 万亿元。 专题报告 相关报告 《重估 A 股的基本原理：权重 指数篇——A 股投资启示录 （二十九）》 《主力何在？增量资金属性 与市场主线风格——A 股投 资启示录（二十八）》 《静态投资框架十问——A 股投资启示录（二十七）》 《基于 FCF-ROE 和 DCF 定 价模型的策略框架——A 股 投资启示录（二十六）》 《定 ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on September 1, with overall minor fluctuations in the morning and a recovery in the afternoon, leading to a slight decline in interbank bond yields [1] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan in the open market, with significant drops in funding rates at the beginning of the month [1] Bond Futures - All major bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30% to 116.910, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.000, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.595 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.25 basis points to 2.02%, while the yields on the 10-year government bonds showed a slight decline [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.31 basis points to 4.224% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally rose, with the 10-year yield up by 1.9 basis points to 1.627% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 3.4 basis points to 3.512% [3] Primary Market - The Agricultural Development Bank of China issued financial bonds with yields of 1.3785% for 91-day, 1.6741% for 3-year, and 1.7824% for 5-year bonds, with strong bid-to-cover ratios [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down by 1.6 basis points to 1.315%, marking a new low since September 2022 [5] Institutional Insights - There has been limited capital flow from the bond market to the stock market, with some redemption in pure bond funds but a general trend towards "fixed income plus" strategies [6] - The capital market's gradual improvement is expected to shift wealth allocation from deposits and fixed income towards equity assets, indicating a potential new cycle in wealth distribution [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent positive developments in the A-share market suggest a potential alleviation of three long-term pain points affecting the market, despite the usual mid-year valuation pressures from bank deposit assessments [1] Pain Point 1: High Savings Rate of Residents - The trend of declining deposit rates is accelerating the "savings migration" phenomenon, with residents increasingly shifting their savings from deposits and real estate to the capital market [2] - The total annual dividend amount for A-shares has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, and the buyback scale has reached 147.6 billion yuan, with the combined dividend and buyback yield approaching 70% of that in the US market [2][4] Pain Point 2: Preference for "Small and New" Stocks - New regulations on mergers and acquisitions have simplified the approval process, significantly lowering the barriers for corporate integration, resulting in a 114% year-on-year increase in major asset restructuring cases in A-shares [5] - The surge in mergers and acquisitions is enhancing the market concentration, allowing leading companies to acquire core technologies and expand market share, thus strengthening their pricing power [5][7] Pain Point 3: Intense Competition in Manufacturing - Various industry associations are advocating against "involution," promoting high-quality competition and resource concentration towards superior companies [8] - The gross profit margin for leading companies in sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries has rebounded from 15% to over 25%, driven by capacity elimination and technological upgrades [8]